Johnny Manziel: Swan Won't Return His Calls

[spydy13]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11965884/why-cleveland-browns-start-johnny-manziel-nfl

When the Cleveland Browns selected Johnny Manziel in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft, it was in an effort to find their long-term solution at quarterback. Like with any first-round QB, the topic of conversation quickly became: When will this player take over the starting gig -- if not immediately? A preseason competition between Manziel and veteran Brian Hoyer ended with Hoyer retaining the starting job, but the clock was unofficially ticking on a transition to Manziel dependent upon Hoyer's on-field performance and the team results.

On Sunday, in the surest sign yet that the time for Manziel as a starter is soon to come, Hoyer was pulled in the fourth quarter of Cleveland's loss to Buffalo in favor of the rookie. And while head coach Mike Pettine has left open the possibility of either player starting this Sunday when Cleveland faces the Indianapolis Colts (an announcement is expected Wednesday), the Browns would be wise to start Manziel and officially begin the Johnny Football era.

Here's why.


Hoyer's struggles

While Manziel had the edge in physical tools during the quarterback competition, Hoyer was a stabilizing option for a roster with veteran players on both sides, and a respected voice in the huddle. That was a factor in him taking the reins as the starter to begin the regular season (neither player stood out in preseason game action), but the feeling among some within the NFL was this: It was a matter of time until Hoyer's lack of elite physical tools caught up with him, and the call for Manziel would follow.

With 10 touchdowns and just four interceptions in his first eight games (plus a 5-3 record), the public narrative shifted. Perhaps Hoyer would hold onto the gig throughout the season and force the Browns into a difficult choice this offseason when he is scheduled to be a free agent? Over the past four games, however, Hoyer has thrown just one touchdown compared to six interceptions, completing just 53.1 percent of his throws.

"Hoyer is what he is. We've seen it for the past four weeks now," said one NFL personnel man. "He's not an elite guy. Period. [They're] gonna have to find out eventually what they have with Manziel. It's whether they say let's ride [right now] or not."



Brian Hoyer, 2014 NFL season
CategoryHoyer in Games 1-8Hoyer in Games 9-12
Touchdowns101
Interceptions46
Completion percentage57.953.1
Browns W-L5-32-2


The two areas that strong quarterback play begins with are decision-making and accuracy. In the month of November, during which he had eight interceptions and four games with a total QBR of 36.2 or less, Hoyer struggled in both areas.

What Manziel brings to the table

While many were previously familiar with Manziel's game before his appearance on Sunday, his brief work reminded some of the strengths of his game: uncommon mobility in and out of the pocket, vision to identify lanes to break out of the pocket from, and an abundance of arm strength.

One NFL personnel evaluator described the differences between Hoyer and Manziel from a physical standpoint as such: "The obvious [is] adding another dimension when things break down," he said of Manziel. "But getting him out in space to make throws are going to ease the process and that's what he's good at. Plus, there was a little more zip on some of those passes he was throwing [against Buffalo]."

On Manziel's first drive, we saw quite a bit of what is described in that assessment, as he threw just one of five passes without either play-action or moving the pocket. That's not a major deviation from what the Browns have been doing with Hoyer -- they have used him outside of the pocket quite a bit, too, this season -- but it will take advantage of Manziel's ability to throw on the run and also stress a defense with his feet. Moving the pocket widens rush lanes at the line of scrimmage, creating room for Manziel to scramble. On Manziel's 10-yard scramble for a touchdown, there was a canyon-sized rush lane for him to step up into and dart toward the end zone.

The Browns are among the most dedicated rush offenses in football, with 377 attempts already this season, third in the NFL. And while Cleveland must be smart in terms of not overexposing Manziel to hits -- a tantalizing fine line to walk with a quarterback with his movement skills -- starting him would allow Cleveland to creatively implement designed quarterback runs and read-option plays, as we saw with Robert Griffin III back in 2012 (his rookie season), when current Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was running that offense. Griffin had 815 rushing yards that season under Shanahan's guidance, including 344 on read-option plays, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Manziel's legs are one more threat for a defense to account for, and the Browns' rushing attack will be all the more dangerous as a result of it.

But to characterize Manziel as simply a quarterback who wins with his legs is shortsighted. The sample size was small on Sunday, but Manziel's first two completions were throws that traveled more than 15 yards down the field and were fit into tight windows. As seen in the table below, Manziel was the most accurate draft-eligible quarterback in terms of throwing from the pocket during the 2013 college season. He's a player who can be a dual threat.



Passing from the pocket
Among 2014 QB prospects, from 2013 college season

PasserTeamCompAttComp pctYds per attPass TDINTs
Johnny ManzielTexas A&M25534773.5%9.72712
Teddy BridgewaterLouisville25335271.9%9.6274
Derek CarrFresno State42559971.0%7.7457
Tajh BoydClemson25536270.4%9.7318
AJ McCarronAlabama20028470.4%9.3266
Blake BortlesUCF22131570.2%9.6188
Aaron MurrayGeorgia20230965.4%8.5216
Zach MettenbergerLSU17727165.3%10.5228
Tom SavagePittsburgh20232562.2%8.0189
Logan ThomasVirginia Tech20836357.3%7.51212


Looking ahead

Manziel was far from perfect Sunday (a low snap on a shotgun play led to a fumble by Manziel on a crunching hit by Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams that was eventually overturned), and the Browns are going to have to live with the rookie mistakes that will come if he is pegged as the starter. But Cleveland is right in the middle of the AFC playoff race (one of 10 teams with at least seven wins in the conference), and the offense needs to be better to stay in the mix (the Browns have scored more than 30 points just once this season and are 22nd in the NFL in terms of points per game). Manziel can provide a physical boost plus an emotional boost to the offense, as one personnel man described. "He lifts the whole team up by just putting on his helmet," he said.

Should Manziel take over as the starter, Hoyer's tenure in Cleveland is likely over after this season. He'll be a free agent, and while he may not be a long-term solution as a franchise's starter, he has enough ability to serve as a bridge quarterback elsewhere, as he has been for Cleveland this season. But as the Browns try to stay in the AFC playoff race, they should turn to Manziel as the starter, as he represents the option that gives this offense the most upside, something it needs after a stretch of just three touchdowns in 11 quarters with Hoyer under center. And even if Cleveland falls out of the playoff chase, the reps will be invaluable for Manziel going forward. With a pair of first-round picks in 2015, even if Cleveland falls short of the postseason this year, the future is undeniably bright for the Browns.

 

[Binkster]

I have it on very good authority (direct info from an offensive player inside the Browns' locker room) that Manziel is struggling mightily with the playbook and memorization of the routes, plays, and concepts. This should come as no surprise, though, as this has become almost an accepted assumption throughout the season.

To be fair, he has had very limited reps with the first team offense in practice and even less experience in live game action, so maybe it is something that will click with concrete experience.

For now, his improvisation will likely be on display (assuming he gets the start).

*Disclaimer: This info comes directly to me from the significant other of a Browns' offensive starter.

 

[FiveThous]

I have it on very good authority (direct info from an offensive player inside the Browns' locker room) that Manziel is struggling mightily with the playbook and memorization of the routes, plays, and concepts. This should come as no surprise, though, as this has become almost a common assumption throughout the season.

To be fair, he has had very limited reps with the first team offense in practice and even less experience in live game action, so maybe it is something that will click with concrete experience.

For now, his improvisation will likely be on display (assuming he gets the start).

*Disclaimer: This info comes directly to me from the significant other of a Browns' offensive starter.

Hoyer's wife doesn't count.

 

[elcheato]

Hoyer's wife doesn't count.

Which may or may not be Binkster

 

[chrisrich91]

I have it on very good authority (direct info from an offensive player inside the Browns' locker room) that Manziel is struggling mightily with the playbook and memorization of the routes, plays, and concepts.

*Disclaimer: This info comes directly to me from the significant other of a Browns' offensive starter.

Well this doesn't help...could be any one of Barnidge's hoes.

 

[Binkster]

I've been had!!!

 

[Kbiz]

It doesn't surprise me that he is struggling with the playbook....typical of a rookie. I would still put him in to take his lumps. He was one of the best improvisers in college. I am not just referring to scramble plays but rather roll-outs and quick WR hot routes. If he can develop any chemistry with Gordon, i still have more faith in him then Hoyer at the moment.

Manziel just brings more to the table with the way Hoyer has been playing recently.

 

[godfather]

Russ Wilson won the Super Bowl literally last year and is the closest comparison to Manziel there is in the NFL in terms of body type and play style.

I think Russell is a pretty solid pocket passer, not great, but I'd say above average. He just happens to have elite speed too.

He has a great arm, outstanding throwing mechanics. Johnny is going to have to change his game if he wants to be successful. There's no harm in being mobile, it can still be an asset.

But he can't just stand around in the pocket, scrabble all day, and make throws at a high level.

Russell is good at using his mobility to extend plays, and make throws. He has unique knack for avoiding a lot of hits too. Russell is definitely a pocket passer, he just takes advantage of his speed to make him even better in the pocket. This is a clear difference between him, and RG3, and some of the other explosive QB's that didn't do too well.

I'm really not sure if Johnny is ready to start, because I think he needs to change his game a lot. Not sure that can all happen in one season. He's not just a rookie, he's a rookie that has to adapt his style to the NFL.

But now, we have no choice. We went with Johnny, I think we should stick with him. I'm not sure though if it was the right decision, despite how terrible Hoyer has been.

This isn't me seriously trying to still prop up Hoyer, he definitely deserved a seat on the bench.

I don't know yet if Johnny is ready to be a successful QB. He gave us a spark, but there was very little we saw Sunday that warrants serious consideration of what he can do in the NFL.

I want to see how he handles himself in the pocket, how he delivers the ball with 3-4 step drop backs under center. We were running play action for Johnny, which utilizes his his speed to move out of the pocket to deliver safe and high accurate throws.

He made some good ones too, no doubt, but we've yet to see if Johnny can do the things that aren't his strengths yet.

 

[gijimbo]

I have one question for the prognosticators in here who believe that Manziel will make a lot of boneheaded plays.

Is that something you believe because he is a rookie and will grow out of? Or is it something that you just alway believe will be part of his game?

Obviously he is more of a risk-taker than the "game manager" that Hoyer has been hailed as (1 TD and 6 INT in the last three games?). But, I would think, with more playing time and experience that Manziel could become a pretty good NFL QB. He has the tools to do it.

I'm just trying to figure out why people just peg him already as a guy bound to make so many mistakes. I expect them in his rookie year, as with any young guy. But, I am pretty excited to see what the kid can do.

 

[godfather]

The reason I say I'm not sure its the right decision. I'm beginning to wonder if Johnny himself is going to be evaluated now, the rest of the way, to see whether or not we should take a QB.

I'm not even a Johnny fan, but I think that's absolutely unfair to him. To come in this late of the season, and seriously expect what we do, or don't have with him, and then use that to determine whether we should take a QB.

I don't think we'll really know what we have in Johnny for sure, until we enter a training camp with him as the guy, him getting all the reps with the first string, and getting an offense implemented around him to make that determination.

I don't really expect it to all go that well for him right now, but hey if it does, then he's proven me wrong.

 

[AZ_]

I have little faith in his ability to win from the pocket.

Based on his collegiate offense not asking him to do much in the way of reading defenses and his penchant for being reckless with the ball courtesy of back foot, off-balance or dangerous throws into coverage.

 

[getBUCKED]

He's going to make some bad decisions. He's also going to make some incredible plays.

His maturation as a player is more important than anything. I think he can succeed in this offense, because of how much faith I have in Shanahan to put him in winning situations. What he did for RGIII was football genius.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I'm just trying to figure out why people just peg him already as a guy bound to make so many mistakes. I expect them in his rookie year, as with any young guy. But, I am pretty excited to see what the kid can do.

Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, and even Mettenberger all looked much more polished and able to drive a pro style offense down the field this past summer. Manziel struggled in the preseason, and teams got a book on him by the Washington game. Manziel showed a few glimpses when he got the ball out quickly, but overall he tried to do too much with his feet and looked easily flustered.

That said, I would take the performance of Hoyer *before the wheels came off at the end of the Texans game* over anything I've seen from Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, or Mettenberger in the regular season. So, I was very comfortable hoping that Hoyer would turn it around and ignoring Manziel until next year. If those other rookies looked more prepared and so far have shown that they aren't ready to lead NFL teams to wins... its hard for me to see Manziel leap-frogging them now.

 

[Phills14]

I think Russell is a pretty solid pocket passer, not great, but I'd say above average. He just happens to have elite speed too.

He has a great arm, outstanding throwing mechanics. Johnny is going to have to change his game if he wants to be successful. There's no harm in being mobile, it can still be an asset.

But he can't just stand around in the pocket, scrabble all day, and make throws at a high level.

Russell is good at using his mobility to extend plays, and make throws. He has unique knack for avoiding a lot of hits too. Russell is definitely a pocket passer, he just takes advantage of his speed to make him even better in the pocket. This is a clear difference between him, and RG3, and some of the other explosive QB's that didn't do too well.

I'm really not sure if Johnny is ready to start, because I think he needs to change his game a lot. Not sure that can all happen in one season. He's not just a rookie, he's a rookie that has to adapt his style to the NFL.

But now, we have no choice. We went with Johnny, I think we should stick with him. I'm not sure though if it was the right decision, despite how terrible Hoyer has been.

This isn't me seriously trying to still prop up Hoyer, he definitely deserved a seat on the bench.

I don't know yet if Johnny is ready to be a successful QB. He gave us a spark, but there was very little we saw Sunday that warrants serious consideration of what he can do in the NFL.

I want to see how he handles himself in the pocket, how he delivers the ball with 3-4 step drop backs under center. We were running play action for Johnny, which utilizes his his speed to move out of the pocket to deliver safe and high accurate throws.

He made some good ones too, no doubt, but we've yet to see if Johnny can do the things that aren't his strengths yet.

This post nailed it. This is exactly my feelings on the Wilson/Manziel comparison.

In regards to @gijimbo 's question... Manziel will struggle with bonehead plays early because he's a rookie. They all do it so I anticipate growing pains this year and into next too. However; I do think Manziel, if he's good enough to be a starter in this league will always be a boom or bust guy. He's going to be similar to Brett Favre in that he will make some incredible plays but throw 1-2 inexcusable INTs or near INTs every game because he's going to be very aggressive and confident.

 

[polska2211]

I have little faith in his ability to win from the pocket.

Based on his collegiate offense not asking him to do much in the way of reading defenses and his penchant for being reckless with the ball courtesy of back foot, off-balance or dangerous throws into coverage.

This is arguably a completely baseless comment. Until you see him attempt these throws in the NFL it makes no difference how he approached the game at the collegiate level given the weapons around him at A&M. He didn't try back foot throws in the preseason, nor did he when he was in against buffalo.

If you're worried about dangerous throws into coverage from Manziel, I think Hoyer has proven more than capable of that.