I don't know if I could see him playing until 39. 37-38 sounds about right. I don't know if he can catch Kareem, but he can definitely get 36,000+ points.
The way I see it, here are my rough projections of his points in the for the rest of his career:
- Note: Some of you may think his point totals decline too much in my projections, but I really think later in his career he'll focus more on facilitating. Also, I think we'll rest him a lot from now on, which is why is game totals for each season are on the low side. For 2014-15, I included 4 games because I think we'll rest the starters in our final 2 games this season.
2014-15 (30 years old): 25.0 ppg x 4 games = 100 points
2015-16 (31 years old): 25.5 ppg x 76 games = 1938 points
2016-17 (32 years old): 25.0 ppg x 74 games = 1850 points
2017-18 (33 years old): 24.0 ppg x 72 games = 1728 points
2018-19 (34 years old): 23.0 ppg x 71 games = 1704 points
2019-20 (35 years old): 23.0 ppg x 71 games = 1704 points
2020-21 (36 years old): 22.5 ppg x 70 games = 1575 points
2021-22 (37 years old): 20.0 ppg x 68 games = 1360 points
2022-23 (38 years old): 18.0 ppg x 67 games = 1206 points
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Additional Point Total From Here On Out = 13165 points
Add that to the 24,837 points he already has and you get 38,002, which would actually be 385 points short of Kareem. This was just a rough estimation, though, so I definitely think he has a good chance of beating Kareem.