We've come to the end of the 2014/15 regular season and we've got all the data on Andrew Wiggins and can look at it in comparison with some other rookie and veteran data now.
MINUTES PER GAME
36.2
Wiggins played the fourth most minutes per game in the NBA this season (behind Jimmy Butler, James Harden and Kyrie Irving). So he had the chance to compile some pretty good per game stats just by virtue of being on the court so much. Also, he played on a poor team that gave him more opportunities to shine than he might have had with a better team that had more healthy talent.
REAL PLUS MINUS (RPM)
-1.25
This means that Wiggins was a net negative for the Wolves when he was on the court this season. And that conclusion is backed up by the following stat as well.
ON OFF COURT
-1.1
The Wolves were better when Wiggins was off the court.
KEVIN LOVE RPM
+3.31
KEVIN LOVE ON OFF COURT
+7.8
The Cavs were better when Love was on the court.
How did Wiggins stack up with other rookies in terms of RPM?
Nurkic +2.79
Mirotic +2.42
Payton +2.24
Smart +2.02
McGary -0.07
Ennis -0.29
Hood -0.51
TJohnson -0.73
Wiggins -1.25
How did Wiggins stack up with other rookies in terms of PER?
Mirotic 17.93
Clarkson 16.94
Noel 15.03
Nurkic 14.84
T Black 14.76
Wiggins 13.85 (22.6% usage rate)
Kevin Love PER this year was 18.8 with a 21.7% usage rate.
The average PER for the NBA is 15.0
Oddsmakers have Wiggins as an overwhelming favorite to win Rookie Of The Year (ROY). Let's assume that he will win the award, and we can then compare him to the last 30 years of other ROY winners. That list can be seen here-
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/roy.html
Comparing Wiggins to the players on that list back to 1984-85, here is what we find.
* Wiggins (13.9) has the second worst PER among the last 30 ROYs. Only Mike Miller (13.2) had a worse PER, and his usage rate (18.5%) was about 4 percentage points lower than Wiggins' was.
* Wiggins (.034) has the second worst WS48 among the last 30 ROYs. Only Michael Carter-Williams (.026) had a lower figure.
* Wiggins (-00.2) is the only person in the last 30 ROYs to have a negative VORP value. VORP is "value over replacement player." A negative number indicates that Wiggins was worse than a replacement level player, similar to how his sub-15.0 PER indicates that his PER is below average for an NBA player.
Kevin Love Rookie PER was 18.3
Kevin Love Rookie WS48 was .124
Kevin Love Rookie VORP was +00.5
Kevin Love 2014/15 PER was 18.8
Kevin Love 2014/15 WS48 was .165
Kevin Love 2014/15 VORP was +2.5
IN CONCLUSION
Wiggins tracks significantly behind Kevin Love's current and rookie stats.
Wiggins was able to build up strong looking per game averages (17-5-2) based upon his heavy minutes per game and his solid usage rate.
Wiggins is not in the top 5 among rookies in either RPM or PER.
Wiggins appears likely to win the 2015 ROY award.
Wiggins compares quite unfavorably to the last 30 ROYs. That list includes these players.
Chuck Person
Mark Jackson
Damon Stoudamire
Mike Miller
Emeka Okafor
Tyreke Evans
Michael Carter-Williams
None of the above players would be characterized as top level superstars I don't think. Yet from an overall perspective in terms of stats, Wiggins appears to be at or below those players' level when they were rookies and Wiggins was a rookie.
In summary, there is little current statistical evidence to suggest that Andrew Wiggins will ever become a superstar in the NBA along the lines of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love.
Wiggins is an exciting, athletic, talented young player. Certainly he will improve and there's every reason to think he will become a solid, good to very good player in the NBA for the next decade. Perhaps he will become a star.
Would he have helped our team this year? No.
Is he better than Kevin Love? No.
Will he become better than what Kevin Love's ceiling is? There's currently no statistical evidence for that at all.
This is the data. Wiggins is done for the season, and our postseason is about to get underway.