From the guy who flies the 787's. Apparently there's a pilot that's been sending him and other pilots a newsletter for a few years and he's been including updates on this story in the letter. Info is below. He sent that as a response to my question as to why the plane would have ended up where it did and he said "Autopilot probably shorted out and airplane was ghost flying." The rest of the info is below.
This is not to leave the board please.
More from my former coworker:
Since my last email on MH370, (copied below for those that just joined the ranks), there have been a few developments.
- A Fact Finding Report is usually made public a couple of weeks after an aircraft accident takes place, detailing what has been found to date. In the case of Malaysia 370, I am not sure we will see one, as the Malaysian authorities may not turn over the investigation to those that have the technical competency to do it, like the American NTSB.
- This investigation has been lead by people with backgrounds in "Security" and not in "Aviation Safety" areas. Consequently this accident turned into a criminal investigation, because that's what they do. And as good as they may be in their fields, they have shown they know nothing about the reality of the aviation world. These pilots have been made guilty from the beginning and never had a chance to be innocent. Now, after weeks of investigating the pilots background and not having found a hint of malicious intent it's time to back off this path and use knowledge and experience to foresee the most likely scenario. This investigation is going in the wrong direction and it's running out of time and money.
- The media continues to report that the ACARS and Transponder were turned off (please see # 2 on the email below). I can accept this as the result of their lack of knowledge in these technical matters, but what I can't understand is that the pilots seating in these panels of experts do not correct this. And by the way, this is an aircraft accident and I have not heard yet, commentary from an aircraft accident investigator. We all have driver's licenses but this does not make us experts in car accident investigation.
- Unlike ACARS and Transponders, cell phones do "sign off" when they are shut down by sending a signal to the antenna indicating it has been turned off. Any callers to that number will know the phone is "off". On the other hand, if a phone is not shut down before a flight takes off, it will lose contact with the antenna and it will remain in "search" mode. A call placed to that number will indicate a ringing tone. This explains why the phones of some passengers of MH370 are still "ringing", they were simply not turned off before flight.
- Lately we have learned that there was a shipment of batteries on board MH370. - First, let's keep in mind that the early indications of something not normal with this flight was the ACARS and Transponder becoming disabled and Air Traffic Control failing to receive any voice communication from the pilots. - If these batteries were loaded in one of the cargo bays and had caught on fire, there would have been a Cargo Fire Warning before the aircraft suffered any equipment failures. Even if the batteries had been loaded in the most forward section of the forward cargo bay, the fire would have to burn through the forward cargo bulkhead and 5 to 6 feet of equipment in the Electronics Compartment until reaching panel P205 (at the bottom of the MEC) where all the Warning Electronic Units are located, before the Cargo Fire Warning would become disabled. For these reasons, It is extremely unlikely these batteries would have been the primary fire (cause).
- (Regarding # 4 and 5 below) - The aircraft makes a turn back towards landfall and drops to 12000 feet, climbs to 45000 feet, descends to 23000 feet and climbs to 29500 feet and descends to 5000 feet. There has been no mention of the time frame or rate of change of these events. This would determine if it was a controlled gradual change or a steep, out of control maneuver, and that would help understand the circumstances. These extreme altitude variances could be caused by pilot incapacitation or by Electronics Compartment fire damage to pitch control, (damage to the Primary Electrical System, cables of the Backup Stabilizer control system, and Backup Generators). Please refer to 1.18.2 page 68 of the B777 fire accident report enclosed on #6 below for more info on this matter.
- If this "altitude variances" report is correct and the report of "continued flight" for several hours is also correct, then the aircraft had to regain at least a heading and altitude hold modes. This means the altitude changes were likely caused by loss of visibility in the flight deck, and pitch control was re-engaged before total pilot incapacitation. The "continued flight' report implies that that a possible fire was not a large continuous fire which would have cause structural failure. On the other hand, if this report proves to be incorrect then the aircraft wreckage could be very close to the end of the altitude variances track, in a small hole in the Malaysian jungle.
- The only area of this aircraft where a fire could have caused equipment failures without crew detection by proximity (flight deck fire) or by a smoke/fire warning is in the Main Electronics Compartment.
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