Here's Bob Finnan's take on the Cavs' off-season plans (published March 3rd):
-- My guess is the Cavs will likely offer shooting guard Wayne Ellington a contract similar to what Alonzo Gee got last fall — three years, $9.75 million. The Cavs will almost assuredly give him a qualifying offer of about $3.1 million, which will make him restricted.
-- Ellington might be the only player from the Memphis trade to hang around after this year, and that's not a guarantee. Center Marreese Speights will likely opt out of his $4.5 million deal after this year and become unrestricted. The Cavs have a team option on guard Josh Selby's $884,293 contract. They could kick him loose.
-- Ellington's presence has left Daniel Gibson the odd man out with the Cavs. Injuries, missing games for personal reasons and other factors have caused Gibson to fall out of Coach Scott's rotation. Lately, it's just that Ellington is a better player. Like teammate Omri Casspi, he's no longer in the Cavs' plans and will become a free agent at the end of the year. Gibson had a heck of a run here in Cleveland, most notably in the 2007 playoffs.
-- The Cavs attempted to buy out Casspi's contract, but one theory is that the veteran forward didn't want to forfeit any of the money owed to him. If the Cavs aren't going to save any money, what would be their impetus to buy him out of his deal?
-- One can make a case the Cavs should re-sign Luke Walton and Shaun Livingston to contracts for next year. Both are veterans who aren't afraid to speak up in the locker room. They haven't had players like this since Antawn Jamison and Anthony Parker left.
Interesting that Finnan doesn't seem to think the Cavs will retain Speights. I appreciate Speights' weaknesses, but I am very nervous about going into next season with Thompson, Zeller, Varejao (who cannot be counted on), and maybe Oden, maybe a rookie (neither of whom can be counted on) manning the front court if we are really trying to make the playoffs. Yeah, I guess we can roll with Luke Walton playing major minutes at the 4 again.
And no we aren't going to be able to sign a decent PF/C on a one year contract by overpaying him $8M or whatever. Maybe CG can work his magic and make another serviceable big appear by absorbing some salary (preferably on contract that expires in 2014). Maybe someone will scour the rosters to find a player who fits the bill?
(This is sort of off-topic, but Scott's increasing preference for playing some version of small ball -- even when the opposing team is playing two legitimate bigs -- is a bit annoying. Sorry, I like my bigs to be big, not wings masquerading as PFs. I know, Scott isn't alone in doing this.)
I think it is a foregone conclusion the Cavs try to bring back both Walton and Livingston. Even Walton haters have to admit at this point that he has been an asset on the court, as has Livingston, in addition to the veteran presence in the locker room. The two also play well together. However, I would only offer one year deals to both. You can offer significantly more than the minimum since the Cavs will be well under the lower end of the salary cap.
Ellington is an interesting case. My current thinking is extend the QO with the goal to re-sign him as FA in 2014, cap space permitting. That said, there may be a good reason that it would make sense, from a cap perspective, to sign him to a multi-year contract, if they can lock him into a reasonable annual salary. Not sure if a "Gee-type contract" is "reasonable" (read: low) enough though. If the Cavs don't re-sign Speights, I guess they will have the money available. I'd just rather see them spend money on a big than another fairly mediocre wing player, especially if they draft a wing.