Extending Kazmir
One of the best signings of the year in all of baseball might be the Indians free agent pickup of lefty Scott Kazmir in the offseason. The Indians bought a lottery ticket with him as they signed him to a minor league deal after he pitched last season in independent ball but impressed in winter ball action, and to date they have cashed in big time with that lottery ticket.
Kazmir, 29, is 6-4 with a 3.96 ERA in 18 starts, and has given the Indians far more than anyone thought he would with 100.0 innings, .239 batting average against, 8.1 K/9, and has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of his 18 starts. He opened a lot of eyes in the spring and looked great, but was sidelined at the start of the season with a strained rib cage muscle and it took him some time to get things back in order, but he has since taken off since the middle of June going 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA in seven starts (45.0 IP, 23 H, 12 BB, 35 K).
Over the past month-plus Kazmir has looked as good as he ever has in his career, if not better, and could be on his way to winning the AL Comeback Player of the Year award. Earlier in his career he relied on stuff and velocity, and while it appears the velocity and stuff is close to what it once was the difference now is he knows how to pitch. No longer is he just a thrower, he actually knows how to use his stuff, change the eye level of hitters, read swings, and just keep more composed on the mound when he gets into trouble or the inning speeds up on him.
While it is not a big talking point right now because the Indians are focused on making the playoffs this season, a big thing on the Indians to-do list and a brewing offseason question is whether they resign Kazmir. He still has about 11 or 12 more starts to go this season, so anything can happen from a health and performance standpoint, but if he continues to pitch like he has this season he is putting himself in line for a good pay day in the offseason. What exactly that payday ends up being or what kind of market he has remains to be seen, but he’s probably pitching himself to a two or three year deal for about $7-11 million per season.
Teams are very intrigued by his showing this season, but I believe there will be some caution given his limited sample size with just one good season after three or four poor or non-existent seasons prior. But he should at least get a lower end multi-year deal of what I guess to be two or three years. Bottom line, to keep Kazmir in the fold the Indians will probably need to commit about $20-30 million to him over two to three years (any combination of money for two or three years in that range).
Kazmir will surely play the market because he has earned that right and is in his prime at 29 years of age, so another contract opportunity like this may not come around for some time. But the key in all of this may be that the Indians can simply extend him a qualifying offer which would put a compensation tag on him where a team has to forfeit a first round pick to sign him and the Indians would receive a first round supplemental pick for losing him.
Last offseason teams had to extend one year qualifying offers for $13.3 million to their free agents to receive compensation. That number is expected to increase each year though I have not seen what it may increase to this offseason, but let’s assume it is somewhere between $13.5-$14.0 million. It might be an overpay and a risk for one season, but if Kazmir is pitching like he is the rest of the year the Indians very well could extend him that qualifying offer as he would be worth every penny of that $13-14 million on a one year deal if he accepts it.
The key, though, is that offering the qualifying offer becomes sort of a poison pill where it scares other teams off since they would lose a valuable first round pick – something teams showed last offseason they value very much. If this happens, then it could help push Kazmir into a multi-year deal with the Indians close to the terms outlined above.
In a nutshell, the Indians nailed the Kazmir signing and even though he is a free agent this offseason they have a pretty good shot to retain him. What a shot in the arm it would be for the rotation for the next few years if he does stay long term, remains healthy, and is all the way back as a pitcher.