The 2014 Cleveland Indians

[MoFlo]

The question you need to ask is how will Masterson be in the next 3 years. Cliff Lee's won his Cy Young at age 28. Sabathia won his Cy Young in his 7th season. Both were pretty mediocre (Lee worse than mediocre) the year before they won their Cy Young. Being his 7th season at age 28, there could be a good chance that Masterson takes the next step this year. He has the tools to be a #1 pitcher, just has not put it all together. If he does prove to be a #1, then it will be too late and we will be lamenting that we could have had him for "only" $17 million. If it was a 6 year deal, OK, I see the risk. But a 3 year deal at what he could become is worth the risk.

Difference is, Justin Masterson hasn't even been able to put 2 solid seasons together in a row.

C.C won his CY in 2007. In 2006, he put up these #'s:

12-11, 3.22 ERA, 6 CG, 2 SHO, 1.17 WHIP, 192+ IP in 28 GS. You're calling that mediocre??

He had 6 full seasons prior to that:

-He had never had a ERA above 4.40
-Never had a season where he started less than 28 games
-Never threw less than 180 IP (After his rookie season, never less than 188)
-Improved his SO/BB ratio in 3 straight seasons.

He had a much better track record than Masterson did

 

[DaNewCavs]

So you're willing to pay $50 in the hopes that he "finds it" for a Cy Young caliber season?

Personally, I'm not...That's for the large market teams to have marginal success with.

I'm just saying that around this age is when good pitcher's usually figure it out. Shields was 29 when he figured it out. Weaver was 28 during his breakout year. Scherzer was 28 last year.

If you think he's worth $14 million for what he's done in the past, then you would think he would continue to progress and be worth an extra $3 million. I'm not even saying that he'll have numbers similar to Shields, Weaver or Scherzer. But if he continues to build upon what he did last year, $17 million will be a bargain for him.

 

[AZ_]

I'm just saying that around this age is when good pitcher's usually figure it out. Shields was 29 when he figured it out. Weaver was 28 during his breakout year. Scherzer was 28 last year.

If you think he's worth $14 million for what he's done in the past, then you would think he would continue to progress and be worth an extra $3 million. I'm not even saying that he'll have numbers similar to Shields, Weaver or Scherzer. But if he continues to build upon what he did last year, $17 million will be a bargain for him.

SOME guys get it at 28, others don't.

I'm certainly not going to bankroll a presumptive step up.

 

[Ruken]

SOME guys get it at 28, others don't.

I'm certainly not going to bankroll a presumptive step up.

Its just sort of a no win situation big gamble with the money if you sign that deal now and he sucks. If he has another great year someone else will overpay just like Kazmir's deal. Regardless of logic, def a PR hit when the fanbase was already not supporting the team/

 

[Derek]

They won without much support last year. Might as well do it again. I'll be there to enjoy it.

 

[Chris]

Regardless, it certainly is a huge PR hit whether people want to argue the logic of the deal or not. Unfortunate.

 

[Derek]

Regardless, it certainly is a huge PR hit whether people want to argue the logic of the deal or not. Unfortunate.

If they have another good year, it really won't matter much. Attendance will be low, but by the end of the year there will be butts in the seats again. Winning solves everything, and I don't think this Masterson stuff affects this year's win total.

 

[Chris]

No. But it probably will long term unless they can replace his production, which is something you guys seem to easily assume they can do.

 

[Wulfgar1224]

Its just sort of a no win situation big gamble with the money if you sign that deal now and he sucks. If he has another great year someone else will overpay just like Kazmir's deal. Regardless of logic, def a PR hit when the fanbase was already not supporting the team/

It's not a no win situation though. If the Tribe were to take Masterson up on the 3/51 and he turns out to be ace material, then they clearly win out. On the other hand, if they take him up and he flames out, then they clearly lose. The course they've chosen will lead to Masterson leaving if he has another season like last year. It is a gamble and Masterson hasn't proven yet that he is worth a 3/51 contract. But, realistically, it is the only way the Tribe will be able to keep an ace through most of his prime years. If they wait for Masterson to "prove" it this year, then he'll be gone next year. IMO, with this decision, the Tribe has taken away the worst case scenario. But, they've also taken away the best case scenario as well.

 

[Derek]

No. But it probably will long term unless they can replace his production, which is something you guys seem to easily assume they can do.

I'm just trying to worry about this year first.

Funny how people used to say they weren't going to games in May because the team was going to blow it in August, now we're going to have people saying they won't go this year because they can't sustain it long-term.

Let's just focus on this team right now. If Masterson walks, bitch away. For now, he's on this team, and we have a good looking squad heading into the season.

It's not a no win situation though. If the Tribe were to take Masterson up on the 3/51 and he turns out to be ace material, then they clearly win out. On the other hand, if they take him up and he flames out, then they clearly lose. The course they've chosen will lead to Masterson leaving if he has another season like last year. It is a gamble and Masterson hasn't proven yet that he is worth a 3/51 contract. But, realistically, it is the only way the Tribe will be able to keep an ace through most of his prime years. If they wait for Masterson to "prove" it this year, then he'll be gone next year. IMO, with this decision, the Tribe has taken away the worst case scenario. But, they've also taken away the best case scenario as well.

I don't think this is true. Even if Masterson has another good year, I don't see him commanding more than $17 million/year. He might get offered more years, but if he truly wants to be here like he says, I still think 3 years $51 million will be on the table.

 

[Chris]

It's not a no win situation though. If the Tribe were to take Masterson up on the 3/51 and he turns out to be ace material, then they clearly win out. On the other hand, if they take him up and he flames out, then they clearly lose. The course they've chosen will lead to Masterson leaving if he has another season like last year. It is a gamble and Masterson hasn't proven yet that he is worth a 3/51 contract. But, realistically, it is the only way the Tribe will be able to keep an ace through most of his prime years. If they wait for Masterson to "prove" it this year, then he'll be gone next year. IMO, with this decision, the Tribe has taken away the worst case scenario. But, they've also taken away the best case scenario as well.

Yep. They've played it safe. Too bad the bold are the ones that reap benefits, usually.

 

[AZ_]

Yep. They've played it safe. Too bad the bold are the ones that reap benefits, usually.

Oh please.

Handing out grossly overpaid deals isn't bold, it's profoundly stupid.

 

[Chris]

Oh please.

Handing out grossly overpaid deals isn't bold, it's profoundly stupid.

For three years? You act like it's a 7 year deal that would decimate the Indians payroll if it backfired.

 

[AZ_]

For three years? You act like it's a 7 year deal that would decimate the Indians payroll if it backfired.

I don't care if it's one year, its a gross overpayment above market value.

If he wants to be more realistic, he'll be back. If not, you deal with fans bitching because they'd give him anything he wants just to keep him here.

 

[Chris]

I don't care if it's one year, its a gross overpayment above market value.

If he wants to be more realistic, he'll be back. If not, you deal with fans bitching because they'd give him anything he wants just to keep him here.

So nobody will pay him that?

If the Indians are content with losing him, okay. I just hope they are content with being consistently mediocre with 1 year windows of contention.