4. Cleveland Indians
Big offseason moves: Acquired 1B/OF
Brandon Moss from the A's for 2B Joe Wendle; signed RHP
Gavin Floyd.
Most intriguing player: Corey Kluber beat out Felix Hernandez for the American League Cy Young Award, becoming one of the least likely winners in the award's history. Simple question: Can he do it again?
Due for a better year: Jason Kipnis was an All-Star in 2013 and finished 11th in the MVP voting but suffered an oblique injury in April and played through it all season. He also hurt his finger working out in December and had surgery but is expected to be ready for spring training. After creating about 101 runs in 2013 he slipped to 53 in 2014. Expect a nice bounce back.
Due for a worse year: Michael Brantley hit .317/.385/.506 and finished third in the MVP voting. While I'm believing in most of the power uptick, he was a .277 hitter entering the season. He should be good again, but I would expect something closer to a 5-WAR season than a 7-WAR one.
I'm just the messenger: The Indians did not have a good defensive outfield in 2014, ranking 29th in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved at -37. They ranked last in Ultimate Zone Rating at -39.9 runs, so different metrics agree that they were lousy in the outfield. Have they fixed the problem? Not necessarily. The biggest culprit was
David Murphy at -17 DRS;
Michael Bourn was rated at -6 and Brantley at -3. Of the various subs, all rated below average except
Tyler Holt. Bourn and Brantley are slated to start again in center and left, but right field is open. Considering Murphy didn't hit either, it seems unlikely he wins the job on a regular basis. Brandon Moss can play out there and he's rated +3 runs over the past three seasons, but he's also coming off hip surgery. Cleveland's best bet is for better performances from Bourn and Brantley, but don't be surprised if Holt ends up getting a lot of time in the outfield.
The final word: Picking the Indians to win the Central isn't really a radical pick -- they won 85 games last season and 92 in 2013. The offense should be above average, especially if Kipnis and Moss are healthy. And while the defense is questionable (last in the majors in overall DRS), it's the young rotation that has come together. Kluber,
Carlos Carrasco,
Trevor Bauer,
Danny Salazar and
T.J. House should be an excellent five-man group, with depth from Floyd and
Zach McAllister. Second-half stats aren't always predictive, but the Indians had the best rotation ERA in the AL after the All-Star break.
Jose Ramirez or rookie Francisco Lindor will be an upgrade defensively at shortstop. Brantley,
Carlos Santana, Kipnis and
Yan Gomes are right in their peak years.
Go support your team, Cleveland.
Prediction: 90-72
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