Cleveland Browns
Biggest offseason hole: Running back
Speaking of teams that need to find a competent running back, the Browns of 2010 and 2011 have been a perfect example of how backs can make the offensive line look bad. In addition to adjusted line yards (ALY), we also keep track of second-level yards (SLY) and open-field yards (OFY), which measure yards gained by running backs once they've ventured beyond the purview of their offensive linemen. If ALY tells you how well an offensive line is run blocking, SLY and OFY tell you how well backs have been able to turn competent blocks into big gains.
The past two seasons, Cleveland's overall ALY ranked 17th (2010) and 23rd (2011). In contrast, the Browns ranked 30th (2010) and 32nd (2011) in SLY, while also ranking 24th (2010) and 31st (2011) in OFY. This means that, although their offensive line can best be described as "mediocre," their backs can best be described as "pedestrian," which isn't ideal when you have the word "running" in your job title. The SLY and OFY figures were slightly better in 2010 when Peyton Hillis was healthy, happy, and having a breakout year. But the differences are slight, and the Hillis ship will almost certainly be sailing out of Lake Erie this offseason.
If and when that happens, it will leave Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya in the Browns backfield, along with a player to be named later. Although we prefer not to rank running backs with fewer than 100 carries, Ogbonnaya was clearly the more valuable of the two in their limited opportunities. Whereas Hardesty was the third-worst non-qualifying back according to DYAR, Ogbonnaya was 15th-best. More importantly, though, he was the only one of Cleveland's three main backs that ended the season with positive value over a sample size of 70-plus carries.
Couple this with Hardesty's injury history, and Ogbonnaya could have the inside track for the starting job in 2012 unless "player to be named later" ends up being a clearly better choice. Cleveland should be trying to come up with the name of that player either in the draft or free agency this offseason.
