To Tank or not to Tank, that is the question

[The Process God]

One reason why so many guys stayed in college during the 2011 draft was because of the lockout and guys were unsure of whether or not there would even be a 2011-2012 season. However, by doing this, nearly all prospects that skipped out on the 2011-2012 draft may now be regretting it. Barnes, Sullinger, and Perry Jones were all tagged for the top 5 or so, but we then saw one slip to 8 (not that bad, but still), one slip to the 20s (Sullinger), and then the last one slip to the last pick in the 1st round (PJIII). Perry Jones probably threw some seven-figure amount out the window when he stayed in college one more year.

 

[NarlCavs]

Teams around the league don't seem to be too thrilled with the 2013 draft so that may be a good opportunity for the Cavs to pick up an additional lottery pick for this draft since they likely won't be valued as highly. You might not get a franchise player but you can get another quality young piece to build with---and the Cavs need all the talent they can get. They Kyrie pick was acquired in part because of low rating of the 2011 draft.

It's also very obvious the Cavs are tanking another season. There should be no talk about contention or when they might contend either. This team is so far away from getting close to that point and is in need of tons of quality talent before even considering it. I'm all for the patient rebuild but next year will be time to do a little more to upgrade the roster and depth. This will also only help the young players already here. I don't expect huge signings or giving up assets for veteran backups, but reasonable moves can be made without disrupting the plan rather than doing basically nothing like the last 2 offseasons.
It's still very early in the building process and I'm not giving up but I do not see anything close to being in place that could lead the Cavs to championship contention in the next decade. Irving is a definite piece. Waiters shows signs but has a ways to go and Thompson and Zeller might just be role players or even backups on a good team.

 

[mhi]

For those worried about the 2014 draft.....

Unless we sign a MAX contract this offseason, We WILL again be a lottery team next year.

And if Varajao is delt for youth, and or picks, we will be picking top 7 in the 'talent rich' 2014 draft.

 

[Giambiwannabe7]

For those worried about the 2014 draft.....

Unless we sign a MAX contract this offseason, We WILL again be a lottery team next year.

And if Varajao is delt for youth, and or picks, we will be picking top 7 in the 'talent rich' 2014 draft.

Sure does seem like there are a whole lot of unknown variables besides just one max guy that will determine where we are drafting in the 2014 draft. It's not even 2013 yet. We have no idea if Andy or Boobie will be here. We have no clue what other additions, including FA's and draft picks that will be added, in 2013. This roster could be overhauled pretty easily in the meantime. Walton will be gone. CJ Miles will be gone. Will KI be healthy? Will Andy, if he is here? How much developing will all the young guys do?

Way too many unknowns at this point. I would like to think that CG's plan doesn't call for us to be drafting in the lettery again in 2014, unless it is with someone else's pick.

 

[Triumph36]

For those worried about the 2014 draft.....

Unless we sign a MAX contract this offseason, We WILL again be a lottery team next year.

And if Varajao is delt for youth, and or picks, we will be picking top 7 in the 'talent rich' 2014 draft.

i do agree that unless the team blows a ton of money in the off-season, they are looking at a late lottery pick next year.

the problem i'm seeing is that the cavs won't trade varejao and resist from blowing a bunch of money in the off-season. moving varejao and then letting an off-season go by without capitalizing on the cap room is too big a step for grant to take, imo. i think it would be a smart step long-term and would very much prefer it, but that is probably where the fans perspective comes into play. grant wouldn't be able to sell doing both to gilbert or the fans (and maybe not even himself....).

 

[daddywags]

How many top picks do we need, exactly? By next June we will have had at least three top 4 picks (maybe four), at least four top 10 picks, plus the 17th pick in last year's draft and a pick in the 20s range next year and a boatload of high second round picks PLUS all the cap room any NBA team could ever hope for (for trades or free agents) . . . . when does it end? 2014? 2015? 2020? 2050? I'm sure I'm not the only one who's getting a bit tired of the "just wait a while longer" schtick. (And, no, I'm not some reactionary fan. I was a Cleveland Pipers fan before the Cavaliers were even a glimmer in the NBA's eyes.)

 

[jlegg21]

How many top picks do we need, exactly? By next June we will have had at least three top 4 picks (maybe four), at least four top 10 picks, plus the 17th pick in last year's draft and a pick in the 20s range next year and a boatload of high second round picks PLUS all the cap room any NBA team could ever hope for (for trades or free agents) . . . . when does it end? 2014? 2015? 2020? 2050? I'm sure I'm not the only one who's getting a bit tired of the "just wait a while longer" schtick. (And, no, I'm not some reactionary fan. I was a Cleveland Pipers fan before the Cavaliers were even a glimmer in the NBA's eyes.)

As many as it takes to build this thing. It ends when this team is legitimately ready to contend. That's why so much attention is paid to the threads with "Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson, Tyler Zeller and 2013 Draft" in their names.

 

[daddywags]

As many as it takes to build this thing. It ends when this team is legitimately ready to contend. That's why so much attention is paid to the threads with "Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson, Tyler Zeller and 2013 Draft" in their names.

Yah, I know. I just get tired of the "next year is the last tank year" stuff over and over and over again. And it's a little unsettling to read now that two (or more) tank years are necessary to do the thing properly. Last year it seemed like most folks thought one, or maybe two, more tanks would be needed. Now (if you extrapolate back to last year) it's two or maybe three - does it ever end? (And, yes, I know it ends when we have an NBA championship trophy in Cleveland. But that doesn't tell me what year you think that should be.)

 

[Triumph36]

Yah, I know. I just get tired of the "next year is the last tank year" stuff over and over and over again. And it's a little unsettling to read now that two (or more) tank years are necessary to do the thing properly. Last year it seemed like most folks thought one, or maybe two, more tanks would be needed. Now (if you extrapolate back to last year) it's two or maybe three - does it ever end? (And, yes, I know it ends when we have an NBA championship trophy in Cleveland. But that doesn't tell me what year you think that should be.)

right, but sometimes "shit happens"

- teams miss on picks (cough)
- drafts are weaker than others (this year?) so a top 5 or whatever pick isn't as good
- certain players that should be moved instead impede the need to draft as high as possible

it goes on and on....

basically, it's hard to say it will take X number of years because there are just so many variables (some the team can control....some not).

dating back to the 2011 draft, they could've taken a different path. draft jonas, trade varejao immediately, whatever the decisions may be. and that path might've led them to contention in fewer years than the path they chose. or maybe they'd never contend.

so much changes. if someone says they will be legitimate contenders in say, 3 years, that could change if the 2013 draft is too weak or they blow the pick. so it's hard to get set on contending in a certain # of years.

 

[daddywags]

right, but sometimes "shit happens"

- teams miss on picks (cough)
- drafts are weaker than others (this year?) so a top 5 or whatever pick isn't as good
- certain players that should be moved instead impede the need to draft as high as possible

it goes on and on....

basically, it's hard to say it will take X number of years because there are just so many variables (some the team can control....some not).

All true; and I guess I'm feeling a little fatalistic tonight but still we should, as fans, have an idea in mind that "two yeras from now" or "four years from now" or "next year" we should be contending, shouldn't we? So what is it? For instance, when LBJ left, I figured it would take three or four years for us to become a serious contending team again (if things went well). We're now in year three and next year is year four but contending seems years and years away (if things go well). I can live with it if somebody tells me "five more crappy seasons and we're all set." I won't understand why, exactly, but I can live with it. What I don't especially care for is people saying "just two more crappy years" EVERY year. (Not pointing a finger at anybody in particular, just the general vibe I get is all.)

 

[Birdy89]

If they aren't competing to be in the playoffs next year then it it going to start showing up in the attendance and enthusiasm for the team I think.

I don't care about all the "things that can happen" along the way, if they can't even get an 8th seed in the weaker of the 2 conferences in Kyrie's 3rd year (4th since Lebron left) then it is time for some changes.

No one is saying they need to be competing for the title, but if we can't even crack the playoffs as an 8th seed then we have screwed up somewhere along the way and there needs to be some accountability. Otherwise we are no different than the rest of the perpetual lottery teams that are always "just one more draft away."

 

[jlegg21]

Yah, I know. I just get tired of the "next year is the last tank year" stuff over and over and over again. And it's a little unsettling to read now that two (or more) tank years are necessary to do the thing properly. Last year it seemed like most folks thought one, or maybe two, more tanks would be needed. Now (if you extrapolate back to last year) it's two or maybe three - does it ever end? (And, yes, I know it ends when we have an NBA championship trophy in Cleveland. But that doesn't tell me what year you think that should be.)

The only way we could fast forward from this current rebuild directly back to contending would be the off chance that a certain someone came back here as a FA in 2014. Not impossible, but I'm not holding my breath either. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Giambiwannabe7]

If it doesn't happen within a certain amount of years, it will be at the feet of CG and he will likely be shown the door. You can't just keep adding years because of weak drafts. Gilbert, media, and fans alike will not put up with a bunch of excuses forever. You keep signing guys like CJ Miles and playing turnstile with the DLeague and you will lose the support of this fanbase and look foolish to the players in the league you'd hope to sign. The clock is ticking, make no mistake. There needs to be progress that reflects in the standings at some point, and I really believe you have to start seeing it next season.

 

[jlegg21]

If it doesn't happen within a certain amount of years, it will be at the feet of CG and he will likely be shown the door. You can't just keep adding years because of weak drafts. Gilbert, media, and fans alike will not put up with a bunch of excuses forever. You keep signing guys like CJ Miles and playing turnstile with the DLeague and you will lose the support of this fanbase and look foolish to the players in the league you'd hope to sign. The clock is ticking, make no mistake. There needs to be progress that reflects in the standings at some point, and I really believe you have to start seeing it next season.

Yeah, because Cleveland is packing the Q like LeBron never left...

This fanbase doesnt hold the Browns or the Indians to that kind of standard, so why would the Cavs be any different? Will more fans show up if any of them start to win? Sure. But to act like fans are going to boycott the Cavs is a threat with no teeth.

Besides, any front office that abandons their rebuilding plan to bend to the will of the fans will never win anything. Ever.

 

[mhi]

Like I said in my post, one sign to watch for in determining if our rebuild is over is if we start agressively going after FAs or trades for all-star veterans.