To Tank or not to Tank, that is the question

[jlegg21]

Multiple times now, you've exagerrated what I've said. That's drama, dude. I'm not pounding any podium, and I've already told you previously how I would approach things differently. You need to seize opps when you see them, not let them pass by because you know you're not in win now mode yet. I like most of our picks, but the point there was simply that there needs to be a timeline of accountability. There's absolutely nothing to be gained by any fan proclaiming what guy they would have drafted. Too many variables to know if any of it would have worked out. This concept of tank after tank after tank after tank is laughable. I get that a city like ours has to do it for a bit, but after a while, people don't want to hear it anymore. You can't only build through high draft picks all at once. Again, I've already thrown in my 2 cents on this for months and months now.

Sorry if you don't think fans can speak by not showing up, but money talks. Less fans = less money. It's funny you think fan discussions on TT and Andy are important/productive, yet you so easily dismiss attendance. If you don't see the irony in that I don't know what to tell you. We can talk about the Cavs til we're blue in the face and it affects not one single thing. We stop spinning those turnstiles and little and well known FO people alike tend to pay attention. Pretty simple, really.

The term "plan", in and of itself, implies a timeline for a path to success. If this plan is as simple as draft high, draft high, draft high....well, then we're screwed, because that means losing season after losing season. Shit, forget the fans. Players won't wanna put up with that shit. KI won't put up with that shit for 7 years. Noone will...except for retreads like CJ Miles. Retarded, lucky deals like the LAC gave us are once in a decade, if that.

Ok, you keep posting like this and calling me a drama queen, while this board soaks in the irony.

In actuality, if fans ever REALLY stop spinning the turnstiles, the team will leave town to play in a city that will. If you wanna pretend fan apathy motivates billionaires more than a little, I guess that's your ill-informed cross to bear. Somewhere the Dolans are laughing.

Problem is, your big bad threats rely on a true fan exodus, a "boycott" if you will, and that will never happen. Thousands of people will still fill the seats for various reasons - Fireworks, stupid contests during timeouts, a fancy Jumbotron, $1 hot dogs, alcoholism... pick one. And that crap will get them by attendance-wise until the wins start coming.

Gilbert has never pretended this was a Cavs town, even when 'Bron was winning MVPs. The Cavs are one part of a larger takeover involving casinos and real estate. A couple of prissy fans getting tired of watching a young basketball team struggle? Grains of sand and nothing more. I have no doubt he wants to win, and I'm sure he wants that arena filled and rocking again. So you're right about one thing, the best way to do that is to win, and he'll find a way or die trying, even if it means firing everyone in sight and starting over. Agreed.

I honestly think too many fans in this town have been listening to clowns like Greg Brinda and Munch Bishop for too long. "Power to the fans" may move a radio audience to pick up their phones, but it is, by all accounts, a complete farce.

 

[Giambiwannabe7]

Brinda and Munch. Well, you've officially made me laugh legitimately for the very first time. You may as well throw Drennan's name in there, too. They're all blowhards and they occupy not one minute of my time.

Gilbert's not gonna leave. And that was never the point. But, that doesn't mean he wants to operate the Q at half mast, either. The Cavs may be his toy, but no business owner wants to operate with a displeased customer base.

It's funny, though, that you put Dolan's and billionaire in the same context. Couldn't be further from the truth, and the fact you think they are laughing to boot just tells me all I need to know about your understanding of that situation. People are still filling the seats? Really? Just can't stop with the exagerrated dramatics can you? Either that, or you're living on a different planet. The Indians sold out exactly one game, Opening Day, all year and were in the bottom 3 of all MLB attendance all year. No amount of $1 hot dogs can make up for the idiocy of signing Grady Sizemore, and intelligent fans are very well aware of that. the Dolans have been crying poor for years now, and their handling of the situation exemplifies that. Too bad they can't sack up and hire a competent FO that knows how to draft.

Anyways...have at it, dude. I've never once said Gilbert would move this team, but he most certainly hears and respects his customer base showing up half as much as they do when this team wins. Thank God his standards begin and end with a Championship. I believe in the guy. Chris Grant, otoh, I'm not sold on yet. And I'd bet Gilbert isn't either. He'd never say so, but a couple more years like this will let us know exactly what he really thinks.

 

[Mr. Orange]

I think some members should go listen to Jason Lloyd's RCF podcast if they have not heard it. He specifically states that the Cavs goal is to get one more top 5 pick. That means a lot of losing this year. We will have two more firsts this year, and then start filling in the team in FA and trade. Our cap situation is great. We have young talent, and are being patient. It's incredibly hard to be patient 3 straight years, but its the right move by the FO.

July is not that far off. We can start thinking playoffs then. We should have a good backcourt and front court by then assuming we draft well. And TT will be bench fodder. It's not like we are beating the Heat or Thunder this year so stop complaining. Had we not tanked hard last year and pushed for 8 seed, we could have Rivers instead of Waiters. Imagine that...

This is a perfect season in the grand scheme. U can complain next Dec.

 

[Tornicade]

I think some members should go listen to Jason Lloyd's RCF podcast if they have not heard it. He specifically states that the Cavs goal is to get one more top 5 pick. That means a lot of losing this year. We will have two more firsts this year, and then start filling in the team in FA and trade. Our cap situation is great. We have young talent, and are being patient. It's incredibly hard to be patient 3 straight years, but its the right move by the FO.

July is not that far off. We can start thinking playoffs then. We should have a good backcourt and front court by then assuming we draft well. And TT will be bench fodder. It's not like we are beating the Heat or Thunder this year so stop complaining. Had we not tanked hard last year and pushed for 8 seed, we could have Rivers instead of Waiters. Imagine that...

This is a perfect season in the grand scheme. U can complain next Dec.

I think you should read this thread we already went over this. the bottom line is that we should expect to see improvement gradually from the youth this year and then especially from the team as a whole next year when the team is in year 3 of their build. pretty sure lloyd mreiterrates grants statement about that in the podcast too.

If Grant and Scott cmes out next year expecting lottery. its not gonna fly period

 

[Mr. Orange]

I think you should read this thread we already went over this. the bottom line is that we should expect to see improvement gradually from the youth this year and then especially from the team as a whole next year when the team is in year 3 of their build. pretty sure lloyd mreiterrates grants statement about that in the podcast too.

If Grant and Scott cmes out next year expecting lottery. its not gonna fly period

Too many pages. I was too lazy. Mea culpa.

 

[Triumph36]

All true; and I guess I'm feeling a little fatalistic tonight but still we should, as fans, have an idea in mind that "two yeras from now" or "four years from now" or "next year" we should be contending, shouldn't we? So what is it? For instance, when LBJ left, I figured it would take three or four years for us to become a serious contending team again (if things went well). We're now in year three and next year is year four but contending seems years and years away (if things go well). I can live with it if somebody tells me "five more crappy seasons and we're all set." I won't understand why, exactly, but I can live with it. What I don't especially care for is people saying "just two more crappy years" EVERY year. (Not pointing a finger at anybody in particular, just the general vibe I get is all.)

but the word 'should' is sort of pointless in this discussion because it suggests the front office will be acting optimally. very rarely is that the case, not just for the cavs but for any organization. contending four years after lebron left could've happened if the cavs' decision making (with emphasis on the long-term) was absolutely perfect.

it is hard to give any sort of estimate - whether it be next year, five years, or something else - because nobody, not even grant, truly knows exactly what the cavs will do over the next few years or what opportunities will become available. hell, they could blow all their money this off-season and never contend during kyrie's time here. there is just too much uncertainty.

elite talent is what wins titles, and the cavs are still very much lacking in that department. they don't have the assets to acquire it via trades, and free agency is not a valid option for a team like cleveland. it's been said a million times before, but that leaves the cavs with the draft.....which means more awful seasons.

the bottom line is that contending is really fucking difficult. and i mean legitimately contending, not making the playoffs but only having a super slim chance of actually winning. in a given year, maybe what, 5-6 teams are actual contenders? that's not a lot, and the difficulty is compounded by the fact that some of those spots are occupied by superteams (mia, okc, lal).

If they aren't competing to be in the playoffs next year then it it going to start showing up in the attendance and enthusiasm for the team I think.

I don't care about all the "things that can happen" along the way, if they can't even get an 8th seed in the weaker of the 2 conferences in Kyrie's 3rd year (4th since Lebron left) then it is time for some changes.

No one is saying they need to be competing for the title, but if we can't even crack the playoffs as an 8th seed then we have screwed up somewhere along the way and there needs to be some accountability. Otherwise we are no different than the rest of the perpetual lottery teams that are always "just one more draft away."

"getting the 8th seed" is 100%, completely worthless if they don't have the upside to actually eventually contend.

that is the whole point - rushing it isn't going to lead to a title.

 

[shoes22]

This team still needs so much help it's crazy. I don't even want people to start thinking about playoffs until 2015 to be honest, but not surprising people were already talking about it in Irving's first year.

2015?! Just to make the playoffs? Are you kidding me?! Before last night, we RARELY lost a game by more than 10 points, and that is with BOTH Kyrie and Dion out. With no one on the team who can create their own shot. We're not as far away as you think. With one more core piece in this year's draft, and the inevitable free agency signing next year to get us above the cap floor, we should be able to make the playoffs next year with little trouble. I expect roughly half the bench (Walton, Miles, etc) to be upgraded as well.

Seriously...this is the weak eastern conference for crying out loud. There have been several years where the #8 seed doesn't even have a winning record.

elite talent is what wins titles, and the cavs are still very much lacking in that department. they don't have the assets to acquire it via trades, and free agency is not a valid option for a team like cleveland. it's been said a million times before, but that leaves the cavs with the draft.....which means more awful seasons.

Even this argument is grossly oversimplifying the process. Unless you're picking in the top 5 in a good year, you are NOT getting elite talent in the draft. Look at the history. And because of the lottery system, tanking doesn't even guarantee you a prime draft spot. I think people are forgetting just how rare and lucky we were to get a franchise player in Kyrie Irving from the #8 Clippers pick. That is rare and not the norm. Even if the Cavs were to somehow get another top 5 pick this year, the odds of that player being "elite" is 20% or less. Would you call Tristan Thompson elite? Bradley Beal? Derrick Favors? Hasheem Thabeet? I could go on and on forever.

Anyway, my point is, simply tanking through awful seasons and praying for a good draft is a crapshoot at best, and it isn't something that can be consistently relied on. Teams like the Cavs and Thunder were very lucky to pick where they did and hit on their picks...but "elite" talent is hard to come by, no matter where it comes from.

The Cavs are in a wonderful position regarding cap space, so starting next year it may be wiser to explore free agent options instead of entirely relying on the draft. And the Cavs do have tradable assets. There are playoff teams who would take Varejao or Gibson, and there may be a time in the next 2 years where we trade Zeller or Thompson to get a more established player on our team. The Cavs are flexible.

 

[daddywags]

I think you should read this thread we already went over this. the bottom line is that we should expect to see improvement gradually from the youth this year and then especially from the team as a whole next year when the team is in year 3 of their build. pretty sure lloyd mreiterrates grants statement about that in the podcast too.

If Grant and Scott cmes out next year expecting lottery. its not gonna fly period

Thanks to all for the good discussion last night. Solid points all around and I for sure don't have the answer (assuming there is one). I can live with this as a sort of capsule of my viewpoint, too. What worries me is that next year at this time we'll be hearing excuses and fans will be buying them wholesale. But no point in worrying about stuff like that now . . . .

 

[Chris]

2015?! Just to make the playoffs? Are you kidding me?! Before last night, we RARELY lost a game by more than 10 points, and that is with BOTH Kyrie and Dion out. With no one on the team who can create their own shot. We're not as far away as you think. With one more core piece in this year's draft, and the inevitable free agency signing next year to get us above the cap floor, we should be able to make the playoffs next year with little trouble. I expect roughly half the bench (Walton, Miles, etc) to be upgraded as well.

Seriously...this is the weak eastern conference for crying out loud. There have been several years where the #8 seed doesn't even have a winning record.

True. This team was tearing it up with Kyrie and Dion healthy.

 

[mhi]

The thing is where is this "gradually youth improvement" gonna come from ?

Irving is already playing at an all star level, he could be better but how much better in a yr ?
Thompson was admittedly a 'project' big when he was drafted, so 2-3 more years before he starts showing his ceiling
Zeller came in with an already rounded out game, he could add weight to defend better but it could slow him down.
Waiters is the lynchpin here and IMO, this team's improvement is gonna be directly tied to his and to a lesser extent Irving's ceiling and how fast he can reach it.

The rest of the roster is filled with 12-15th men, who rarely if ever make the leap to rotational guys. Save for Gee who could stand to improve his offensive skillset but don't see it in an offseason.

 

[Chris]

The thing is where is this "gradually youth improvement" gonna come from ?

Irving is already playing at an all star level, he could be better but how much better in a yr ?
Thompson was admittedly a 'project' big when he was drafted, so 2-3 more years before he starts showing his ceiling
Zeller came in with an already rounded out game, he could add weight to defend better but it could slow him down.
Waiters is the lynchpin here and IMO, this team's improvement is gonna be directly tied to his and to a lesser extent Irving's ceiling and how fast he can reach it.

The rest of the roster is filled with 12-15th men, who rarely if ever make the leap to rotational guys. Save for Gee who could stand to improve his offensive skillset but don't see it in an offseason.

Pretty much how I feel. You have two players who may have All Star games in their future, and then a bunch of rotational players, many of them average or worse. That's just reality. If people think you are ready to contend after one more offseason you're just fooling yourselves.

 

[STAT]

but the word 'should' is sort of pointless in this discussion because it suggests the front office will be acting optimally. very rarely is that the case, not just for the cavs but for any organization. contending four years after lebron left could've happened if the cavs' decision making (with emphasis on the long-term) was absolutely perfect.

it is hard to give any sort of estimate - whether it be next year, five years, or something else - because nobody, not even grant, truly knows exactly what the cavs will do over the next few years or what opportunities will become available. hell, they could blow all their money this off-season and never contend during kyrie's time here. there is just too much uncertainty.

elite talent is what wins titles, and the cavs are still very much lacking in that department. they don't have the assets to acquire it via trades, and free agency is not a valid option for a team like cleveland. it's been said a million times before, but that leaves the cavs with the draft.....which means more awful seasons.

the bottom line is that contending is really fucking difficult. and i mean legitimately contending, not making the playoffs but only having a super slim chance of actually winning. in a given year, maybe what, 5-6 teams are actual contenders? that's not a lot, and the difficulty is compounded by the fact that some of those spots are occupied by superteams (mia, okc, lal).

"getting the 8th seed" is 100%, completely worthless if they don't have the upside to actually eventually contend.

that is the whole point - rushing it isn't going to lead to a title.

I agree with this sentiment, but if Kyrie is to be a top 6 or 7 player in the league at some point (basically essential for truly contending), you'd imagine he'd will us to near 40 wins by his third season, right? I mean we're devoid of talent, but if Kyrie is going to be making the leap into super-stardom in a time frame similar to other one and done's (Durant, Rose, and Love to a lesser extent) I'd imagine we'd be gunning for the eighth seed.

 

[Tornicade]

Contend? the next step for the Cavs is to get into the playoffs and hover around .500 at the very least.

 

[shoes22]

Pretty much how I feel. You have two players who may have All Star games in their future, and then a bunch of rotational players, many of them average or worse. That's just reality. If people think you are ready to contend after one more offseason you're just fooling yourselves.

There's a huge difference between contending for a championship and making the playoffs. I still stand by my claim that with a few off-season moves, this team can and should go to the playoffs next year.

I think we should also steer away from the assumption that you need several "elite players" or superstars to compete for a championship. That's not true. The Chicago Bulls were the second best team in the East last year, with only one elite player in Derrick Rose. They were a contending team. The Dallas Mavericks won the championship in 2011 with only one superstar in Dirk Nowitzki. You don't need an all-star at every position. Just a bunch of guys who all buy into the same system, and do their assigned roles well. People need to look beyond the final box score, and see that we have an extremely young team with pieces that are coming together. I firmly believe the Cavs are on their way.

 

[Zone]

I guess I understand the sentiment currently being discussed as to when we might be back off and running. The roster still lacks quite a few parts, and the pieces that have potential are in the infant stages of their growth, which typically leads to inconsistency and losses. It hasn't helped that there have been injuries.

But the organizations decree from 2010 hasn't changed. We've maintained cap flexibility and continued to accumulate assets. Some of those assets will finally start paying dividends this coming summer in the form of our 2011 second round pick (when we get Orlando's 2nd), and the MIA/LAL pick. Barring any changes, we'll also have our own 2 picks giving us what looks like 4 top-40 picks. While the jury's out on this draft class, they're still assets in a draft that's garnering negative attention for not being star heavy. I haven't seen much talk about the projected depth.

Also looking at the cap flexibility. From all reports, the FO has been very active in trying to be a facilitator in trades by taking on salary (Melo, Howard, etc.). It seems they have interest in trying to increase the amount of picks already at their disposal, and are looking to be opportunistic. While some will say that every team should work that way, it's at the very least encouraging that the plan outlined 2 years ago is still being followed. It might be more alarming if they'd deviated from it one or more times.

A lot of folks here point towards the OKC model, which is understandable given their success. But it's such a hard path to follow. They've made some great picks (KD, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, etc.), but they've also kind of been in the right spot at the right time (like moving up from the 5th spot in the lottery to having the 2nd pick and Durant after the Blazers struck out on Oden).

There's also another example that could be comparable to our rebuilding efforts: the Celtics when they formed their Big 3. They accumulated plenty of young assets and picks leading up to the trades for Garnett and Allen, and struck at the right time. From 2004-2007, they either drafted or traded for: Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye (who was traded for Telfair), Rajon Rondo (acquired with the Jiri Welsh pick), and Jeff Green. They'd also obtained Perkins in 2003, and had acquired a very attractive pick from the T-Wolves (which was sent back to MIN in the KG trade).

While I'd acknowledge the McHale-Celtics relationship, it does seem the Wolves got a decent return given today's standards of pennies on the dollar for your star/superstar. The point is that the Cavs have continued to collect assets and positioned themselves very well should some top-shelf talent become available in trade.

The OKC and Boston examples are different in that one has achieved success through homegrown talent, while the other turned some of their homegrown talent into a couple of star veterans and a championship. Either way, they were both done with the same principles it appears the Cavs have in mind.

Not to mention a little luck