Tracking the 2013 Draft Picks

[Kovah]

I got no problem with the Magic getting a high lottery seed as long as they draw the Cavs balls on May 21st. =)

Oh they'll pull our balls out draft night alright...

 

[RTrees]

Looks like this is the team that the Lakers have to pass to get to the playoffs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Here is the current simple predictor:

Rk	Western Conference	Est W	Est L	Current	Remain	Playoff Odds
7	Houston Rockets	45.2	36.8	25-23	20-14	90.5%
8	Utah Jazz	43.0	39.0	26-21	17-18	71.2%
9	Los Angeles Lakers	40.3	41.7	21-26	19-16	27.2%
10	Portland Trail Blazers	38.1	43.9	23-23	15-21	9.0%
11	Dallas Mavericks	36.0	46.0	20-27	16-19	3.5%
12	Minnesota Timberwolves	33.8	48.2	17-26	17-22	0.4%

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The bad news is that the Jazz already have the first tie breaker of the Lakers, so the Lakers have to pass the Jazz to get to the playoffs. That means the Jazz need to get three unexpected losses to give LA a chance to pass them. The Kings play Utah twice next week. The Cavs get their chance to help the cause on March 6th. If Utah loses those three games, things start to look good for the Cavs to get the 16th pick in the draft.

The complex predictor looks a little better. It weights recent games more heavily. But it is still a longshot (35% chance).

90% for the Rockets to get in and a 35% chance for the Lakers? And a 3 and 1/2 game difference in early February? We might need to consult Deep Blue, the computer that beat Kasparov.

I think these numbers are pretty useless as they don't seem to factor in all the intangibles that have made up the Lakers season so far.. Injuries, coaching change, injuries, and a coaching change. Having hall of fame talent is probably not in the algorithm either. How do you calculate for complacency? So unpredictable that these numbers don't mean much to me. But still fun to look at and guess where the H they come from.

They're probably based on strength of schedule and production for instance, but there's some things you just can't account for in the NBA.

 

[Chris]

So where do we stand.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

90% for the Rockets to get in and a 35% chance for the Lakers? And a 3 and 1/2 game difference in early February? We might need to consult Deep Blue, the computer that beat Kasparov.

I think these numbers are pretty useless as they don't seem to factor in all the intangibles that have made up the Lakers season so far.. Injuries, coaching change, injuries, and a coaching change. Having hall of fame talent is probably not in the algorithm either. How do you calculate for complacency? So unpredictable that these numbers don't mean much to me. But still fun to look at and guess where the H they come from.

They're probably based on strength of schedule and production for instance, but there's some things you just can't account for in the NBA.

The Lakers are 6-16 on the road this season. They have 19 road games remaining compared to 16 home games. To make the playoffs they likely need to win about 44 games. And to do that they need to go 23-12 the rest of the way. They have 6 of their last 8 at home, so if they are close on April 1, they have a chance. But I believe to make the playoffs, they need to go about 11-8 on the road and with the injury to Howard and no evidence that they are getting much better, I think they are close to dead. They play their next 5 on the road. Anything short of 3-2 and the nails will start to go in the coffin.

 

[ajz20]

Lakers survive.... they need to make a trade it is going to be a huge struggle just to get to 4 games over .500
still holding out hope!

 

[Douglar]

Earl Clark and Steve Nash combine to shoot 0-4 from the line in the last 16 seconds in a 1 point game. Game cast reads: "Andre Drummond misses alley pop dunk shot" as time expires. A win is a win, but what the hell?

 

[Kovah]

Earl Clark and Steve Nash combine to shoot 0-4 from the line in the last 16 seconds in a 1 point game. Game cast reads: "Andre Drummond misses alley pop dunk shot" as time expires. A win is a win, but what the hell?

I saw the same but didn't watch the end of the game nor see any highlights yet. All that matters to me is the Lakers had another 4th quarter collapse which doesn't bode well when they face elite teams on the road.

 

[wuck]

All that matters to me is the Lakers had another 4th quarter collapse which doesn't bode well when they face elite teams on the road.

Well, it does matter that they didn't actually blow the game today. It's a step up from when they blew the game against Phoenix, and plenty of other road games this year, and it's their 2nd consecutive road win.

Small victories. Better than additional losses.

 

[Douglar]

The Cavs are still at the third lottery seed right now, but probably not for long. The Cavs are only 2.5 games from being the 8th seed and the only thing that's going to stop Orlando from getting the 3rd seed by next week is if they jump straight to 2nd seed. Looks like Magic, Kings, Wizards, Cavs, Suns & Pelicans will be the pack of tankers trailing the Bobcats and the Cavs will probably end up somewhere in the middle.

Lakers needs to gain 5 games on Utah to make the playoffs. That's probably the number to watch for the rest of the season. The 16th pick would be much more fun than the 27th.

Speaking of 27th, Miami almost slipped to 26th this week. Still don't see it happening though.

 

[chrisrich91]

It is absolutely mandatory for Harden to go down for extended time if the Lakers are going to make the playoffs. That might not even be enough.

 

[Douglar]

It is absolutely mandatory for Harden to go down for extended time if the Lakers are going to make the playoffs. That might not even be enough.

Here are projected wins in the west according to Basketball Reference and Hollinger:

Seed	Team	B-Ref Est Wins	Hollinger Est Wins
7	Houston Rockets	45.2	46
8	Utah Jazz	42.3	41
	Lakers	40.3	40
	Dallas Mavericks	35.9	39
	Trail Blazers	38.8	38

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Utah has the tie breaker on the Lakers, so the Lakers need to pick up 2-3 extra wins or Utah needs an extra 2-3 losses. They say the odds of that happening are about 30% right now.

 

[Douglar]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-l-a-clippers-trading-for-garnett/#1Gco5IYi1xH87kIT.99

Will the Lakers Make the Playoffs?
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the playoffs this season? The thought of this star-studded squad missing the postseason would’ve seemed crazy several months ago, but it’s a legitimate question now. The Lakers are currently 22-26 and sitting in the Western Conference’s 10th seed. This season has been full of losses, drama and injuries for the Lakers. To say that the team has failed to live up to expectations is a huge understatement. This was supposed to be the team to beat, but that’s far from the case now.

Every Sunday afternoon, HOOPSWORLD’s writers answer an NBA-related question in a weekly column called the “Sunday Topic.” Yesterday, we discussed whether or not the Lakers will make the playoffs.

Despite the team’s early-season struggles, HOOPSWORLD’s writers are confident that the Lakers will find their rhythm and qualify for the postseason. Every writer that was asked – Yannis Koutroupis, Bill Ingram, Tommy Beer, Derek Page and myself – believed that L.A. would find a way to make the postseason, beating out the Houston Rockets or Portland Trail Blazers for one of the final seeds in the West. This team has too much talent to be lottery-bound, right? Right?

 

[Jon]

The Lakers are just 4 games out of the playoffs. That's not really much if they actually started winning with some consistency, and either Houston or Utah hit a rough patch. Seems to be a tall order for the Lakers, but there are a lot of games left.

 

[Douglar]

The Lakers are just 4 games out of the playoffs.

It would be a little easier if the Lakers hadn't already lost the tie breaker against Utah, but yeah, there's a lot of season left and not a huge number of games to make up.

And while it's only one game, if Sacramento can beat Utah tonight, it goes a long way towards making the Lakers playoff chances seem more realistic.

 

[LNance]

It would be a little easier if the Lakers hadn't already lost the tie breaker against Utah, but yeah, there's a lot of season left and not a huge number of games to make up.

And while it's only one game, if Sacramento can beat Utah tonight, it goes a long way towards making the Lakers playoff chances seem more realistic.

I would expect that Utah trades at least one of Big Al or Milsap.