Tracking the Cavs: '14-'15 Metrics Watch

[theSTEREO.]

What are our ratings since the 5-7 start

I've been breaking this down for the last month actually. I'm keeping a running chart of how we perform over the last 15 games each week.

http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/tracking-the-cavs-14-15-metrics-watch.45145/

So while I appreciate the work @priceFTW put in here, the sample size is waaaaaay too small to decide anything yet.

For instance, yeah we are 23rd overall on the year, but we have been hovering around 16th for the past month. Those numbers dipped a bit when we lost our Hawks/OKC/NO games, but generally the team has already made a huge leap in defense.

So the panic is a little premature to me.

 

[David.]

all true but you cant choose which games you can/cannot look at

 

[wuck]

I took a look at all the title teams from the last 35 years to see where they ranked in ORtg and DRtg to see if some sort of picture develops.

I merged these two threads since they are similar in nature.

Here's a question: what are they most likely teams to make the finals this year if we gauge from ORtg and DRtg statistics so far this year? Let's say 2-3 from each conference. I recognize the small sample size. Just curious if the statistics match up to current records or if there are surprises in there.

 

[David.]

warriors, hawks, mavs, raptors. hawks in the last 15 are on par with gs, who is klling it

 

[Kris032]

What's our FT% ranking? Seriously, we could have won 1-2 games by just hitting our free thows. I've seen love, james and irving miss a lot.

 

[priceFTW]

What's our FT% ranking? Seriously, we could have won 1-2 games by just hitting our free thows. I've seen love, james and irving miss a lot.

12th before this last game.

 

[theSTEREO.]

Edited the OP for this week.

Oh man, Danger Zone for the Defense.

Offense remains surprisingly elite. Haven't budged out of the top 4 all year, both YTD and in the 15 game sample sizes I have been tracking.

But that defense tho.... We are nearing dangerously towards having a negative Net Rating. Not good.

 

[priceFTW]

Edited the OP for this week.

Oh man, Danger Zone for the Defense.

Offense remains surprisingly elite. Haven't budged out of the top 4 all year, both YTD and in the 15 game sample sizes I have been tracking.

But that defense tho.... We are nearing dangerously towards having a negative Net Rating. Not good.

I think people sometimes see that we put up only 98 or 102 and think "meh," but we play at such a slow pace (4th slowest in the league) so the points we score are really efficiently scored on such few possessions.

The hope is that we're the 4th best offense despite the fact that:

--we can't get out into transition where we excel because we can't get stops (center would help with more stops)

--when we do get stops, we give up ORebs (this might be helped with a center)

--we can't create turnovers that help create easy offense

--We can't make open threes

--Love's ORtg is 114, a far cry from his 120 last year.

But the biggest shock has been James's ORtg of 113 which is a combination of a massive amount of turnovers and poor finishing at the rim. His ORtgs going back to 2007-2008: 116, 122, 121, 116, 118, 125, 121.

Yet still we're fourth. If James and Love get comfortable playing with each other and the team and play up to somewhere near their standards, I can see us with the best offense in the league the last 50 games of the year. If all of the above other than maybe creating turnovers improve, I can see us challenge for an epic offense over the last 50 games.

Then there's defense...

 

[theSTEREO.]

Welp.

The wheels have fallen off, boys.

We have now dropped from 4th best offense to 11th best on the year, with no improvement in defense. Edited the charts and the OP.

In our Last 15 Game sample, we've crossed into the dreaded Negative Net Efficiency zone. We are giving up more points per 100 possessions than we are putting up.

Gotta right this ship fast. All of the sads.

 

[theSTEREO.]

Also, interesting side note:

The overall offensive efficiency leaguewide has dropped off over the last 15 games, and defense has gotten worse as well. Marginally of course, but still interesting.

 

[shoes22]

Also, interesting side note:

The overall offensive efficiency leaguewide has dropped off over the last 15 games, and defense has gotten worse as well. Marginally of course, but still interesting.

I would assume because players are no longer fresh, and starting to get tired.

 

[Brandname]

Also, interesting side note:

The overall offensive efficiency leaguewide has dropped off over the last 15 games, and defense has gotten worse as well. Marginally of course, but still interesting.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but how can leaguewide offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency drop at the same time?

 

[theSTEREO.]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but how can leaguewide offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency drop at the same time?

Just looking at the numbers. League-best DEF rating is at its worst level since the beginning of the year, and league best OFF rating is at its lowest since week one.

To me, that means on the whole, games are closer.

 

[Brandname]

Just looking at the numbers. League-best DEF rating is at its worst level since the beginning of the year, and league best OFF rating is at its lowest since week one.

To me, that means on the whole, games are closer.

Sorry, I thought you meant the OFF efficiency and DEF efficiency, averaged across the whole league, were both down. This statement makes sense to me.

 

[theSTEREO.]

I missed last week's, so I added two data points this week.

And um... last week's was HILARIOUSLY, TRAGICALLY bad. Of course, that encompassed all of the losing streak, so our Net Rating was terrifying.

As you can see this week though, getting Lebron back and firing off a few wins has already helped. We are back up to a top 8 offense on the year, but have dropped to the 27th defense in the league. Gotta pick that up. I'll be pretty excited to see what we look like at around week 15 where we'll have a 15-game sample that includes Shump, Mozilla, JR and New Lebron™ in its entirety. See how the defense looks then.