Tristan Thompson

[Paul]

Torn, you didn't answer my questions. The reason I am asking them is that I'm trying to actually see where you stand on this Tristan thing when push comes to shove. It's one thing to say hes a good player and hes valuable, but at some point a GM has to make a call considering all factors. I'll repost it again I hope you can give a response:

OK, so in your opinion should we sign Tristan only if his demands are 20% of the cap or less? And if so, which season's salary cap are you using for your 20% or would Tristan's contract have to be 20% or less in any of the seasons he's under contract?

Based on your analysis of his virtues and how badly we need him, if you're the GM where do you draw the line?

 

[Tornicade]

Torn, you didn't answer my questions. The reason I am asking them is that I'm trying to actually see where you stand on this Tristan thing when push comes to shove. It's one thing to say hes a good player and hes valuable, but at some point a GM has to make a call considering all factors. I'll repost it again I hope you can give a response:

OK, so in your opinion should we sign Tristan only if his demands are 20% of the cap or less? And if so, which season's salary cap are you using for your 20% or would Tristan's contract have to be 20% or less in any of the seasons he's under contract?

Based on your analysis of his virtues and how badly we need him, if you're the GM where do you draw the line?

Ive actually posted this before.

I see Thompson as a 16-20% cap guy . I also think you have to look at the life of the contract and with three years out 5 projected to be at a 100 Million. this justifies either a higher percentage out the gate with minimal increases or a smaller percentage with max 7.5% raises.

I dont think under normal cap projections Thompson is someone you give 7.5 raise to every season however if you want the deal done before the cap increases it has to be structured within the CBA guidelines.
I think the line is 87 million with Thompson actually signing for 84-86 million.

Then again if your gonna blow a contract this is the season to do so.
as the Cap increase will cost correct even a max contract but I dont think they will need to.

If Thompson camp think they can offset 87 million then they should be willing to go lower for the security of the contract.

 

[Paul]

Ive actually posted this before.

I see Thompson as a 16-20% cap guy . I also think you have to look at the life of the contract and with three years out 5 projected to be at a 100 Million. this justifies either a higher percentage out the gate with minimal increases or a smaller percentage with max 7.5% raises.

I dont think under normal cap projections Thompson is someone you give 7.5 raise to every season however if you want the deal done before the cap increases it has to be structured within the CBA guidelines.
I think the line is 87 million with Thompson actually signing for 84-86 million.

Then again if your gonna blow a contract this is the season to do so.
as the Cap increase will cost correct even a max contract but I dont think they will need to.

If Thompson camp think they can offset 87 million then they should be willing to go lower for the security of the contract.

Ok so if Thompson is asking for 5 years, 90 million and will only take the QO if we don't give it to him, then you would QO him?

Also, if we do QO him this year, would you be willing to give him more than 5 years, 90 million starting in 2016-2017?

 

[dark2332]

All of this still blows my mind.

We are talking $90 million dollars for a guy who I'm still not sure if he's right or left-handed--both look equally awkward.

He is only 6'9 and cannot play center.

He is a good athlete, but you wouldn't classify him as a great athlete by NBA standards.

He is a poor free throw shooter.

He is not a game-changing shot blocker--or much of a shot blocker in general.

He has no offensive game outside of alley-oops and offensive rebounding.

His best characteristics are hustle, work ethic, and being a generally likable guy. He was humble once.

Now that he wants $90 million for his services, he damn well better hustle and I find him much less likable and humble. In fact, this whole contract negotiation just irritates the hell out of me to the point that I wish desperately that we could replace what he gives us through any other means. Sadly, though, we cannot because the cap will be in our rear-view mirror until the end of time...

So we will probably pay him. I'll be pissed.

All of the sudden, this "glue" guy that was Tristan Thompson--the guy all of his teammates liked--starts being resented a little bit. Players see that he's paid more than them even though they are more talented. This resentment leads to jealously. It happens in every single work place when someone is paid more than they deserve or more than others who have a greater contribution. This deal is a morale killer.

 

[HurricaneKid]

nice. bring on the insults.

I mean if a guy allows a lower percentage opp efg. his opponent scores on less percentage of possesions one can conclude that a stat that already owns up not to properly measure defense perhaps isnt applicable

I didn't mean offense. Just a little teasing. You are out on a ledge on your own. Own it.

The stats you have brought up recently are the 1 on 1 statlines. Those lines mean less and less as bigs are increasingly used as help defenders to cut off lanes to the basket and for shading. It is harder and harder to pinpoint responsibility for allowing a basket as more and more defenses use more than one defender in many repetitive actions (a third defender is almost always involved in PnR action, etc). Who gets the blame when an offensive player shoots the gap between two defenders? There is less and less iso action in the league (outside of Cle anyways) so the iso defense figures (that they only JUST starting tracking) are of limited value. Besides, team defense is significantly more important than iso defense as it deals with the entirety of an offensive set rather than a single action off of it.

Defensive metrics are really hard to pinpoint. Every available metric has its issues which is why there are disclaimers on a lot of them (like that of the one you posted). RAPM numbers are pretty good, but too often they are mixed into a messy conglomerate that includes box score data. And TT had a marked improvement this year in DRAPM. But it still wasn't even close to Tyson Chandler's 4th year; NONE of the metrics suggest he is even close. You can point out the inadequecies of each of them or you can take them as a whole and say these aren't even close and even if there is a high likelihood of error, it STILL wouldn't get the two close. And he doesn't offer ANY of the rim protection that Chandler has provided ever since that 4th year which has allowed him to be a great defender.

 

[cavsfever]

I didn't mean offense. Just a little teasing. You are out on a ledge on your own. Own it.

The stats you have brought up recently are the 1 on 1 statlines. Those lines mean less and less as bigs are increasingly used as help defenders to cut off lanes to the basket and for shading. It is harder and harder to pinpoint responsibility for allowing a basket as more and more defenses use more than one defender in many repetitive actions (a third defender is almost always involved in PnR action, etc). Who gets the blame when an offensive player shoots the gap between two defenders? There is less and less iso action in the league (outside of Cle anyways) so the iso defense figures (that they only JUST starting tracking) are of limited value. Besides, team defense is significantly more important than iso defense as it deals with the entirety of an offensive set rather than a single action off of it.

Defensive metrics are really hard to pinpoint. Every available metric has its issues which is why there are disclaimers on a lot of them (like that of the one you posted). RAPM numbers are pretty good, but too often they are mixed into a messy conglomerate that includes box score data. And TT had a marked improvement this year in DRAPM. But it still wasn't even close to Tyson Chandler's 4th year; NONE of the metrics suggest he is even close. You can point out the inadequecies of each of them or you can take them as a whole and say these aren't even close and even if there is a high likelihood of error, it STILL wouldn't get the two close. And he doesn't offer ANY of the rim protection that Chandler has provided ever since that 4th year which has allowed him to be a great defender.

Great post. One of the stats Tornicade posted a few pages back showed TT as a much better post defender than Mozgov. I don't know what to say to someone who takes that stat seriously.

We actually did see TT as the starting center before Mozgov arrived and it was a disaster.

 

[NasstyNate]

You can point out the inadequecies of each of them or you can take them as a whole and say these aren't even close and even if there is a high likelihood of error, it STILL wouldn't get the two close. And he doesn't offer ANY of the rim protection that Chandler has provided ever since that 4th year which has allowed him to be a great defender.

I've been asking this question all year. Say what you will about the reliability of a single advanced metric, but when you look at them in the aggregate, they do a really good job of sorting the league by defensive performance. And Tristan is dog shit in just about all of them. So why is he an outlier that is not being accurately represented? That's a serious question.

 

[buzzdog]

Mozgov had a defined role and he was good at one thing. His weaknesses in denver were often exploited because he was paired with Kenneth Faried instead of Tristan Thompson.

Mozgov serves a role.. Thompsons is just more important to the teams success

You lost me with that statement. If you had to choose between Mozgov and TT there's absolutely no way in hell they're better with only TT than they are with only Timo. Bonafied rim protectors with a proficient offensive game >>>>>hustle rebounders, regardless of how you might be able to contort any stats to show otherwise. And Mozgov next to KLove is >>>>>>> than TT next to KLove, hands down. I don't see how you could refute that with a straight face.

 

[edwinx]

Comparing Moz and TT is not meaningful. They are good at different aspects and brings to Cavs competence in a different ways. Both are equally so important to our success that in this champ chasing run, we cannot afford to lose either.

 

[Tornicade]

Great post. One of the stats Tornicade posted a few pages back showed TT as a much better post defender than Mozgov. I don't know what to say to someone who takes that stat seriously.

We actually did see TT as the starting center before Mozgov arrived and it was a disaster.

Was it a disaster?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomptr01/lineups/2015/#lineups-5-man::none

you want to blame the issues between Love, James and Irving on Thompson?

Thompson started at center for a 9 game stretch where either Irving or lebron were out

Delly and Mike Miller were the other starters for most of those games.

 

[dmb]

Maybe smbd got money from rp

 

[Paul]

The thing I keep coming back to is how can Dan Gilbert pull the trigger on a long term TT deal when he knows that we could save about 300 million dollars (ballpark estimate) by inserting a vet minimum or MMLE guy in Tristan's place over the course of a 5 year arrangement. The guy who we get to fill that role may vary over those 5 years, but there are serviceable players out there who would gladly be a 3rd or 4th big on our team for 1.5 to 3.5 million dollars.

How is the upgrade of TT over a serviceable big man worth 60 million dollars a year?

Maybe my math is way off but I took a ballpark luxury tax figure of 4x the normal rate and multiplied that by the difference between an 18 mil contract per season vs a 3 mil contract per season.

Please tell me my math is way off because if I'm right it's just absurd for him to do this.

 

[Chris Parker]

Mozgov had a defined role and he was good at one thing. His weaknesses in denver were often exploited because he was paired with Kenneth Faried instead of Tristan Thompson.

Mozgov serves a role.. Thompsons is just more important to the teams success

I wish there was a button for "delusional"

 

[Tornicade]

I've been asking this question all year. Say what you will about the reliability of a single advanced metric, but when you look at them in the aggregate, they do a really good job of sorting the league by defensive performance. And Tristan is dog shit in just about all of them. So why is he an outlier that is not being accurately represented? That's a serious question.

This isnt true. NBAwowy and Nba sportsvu tracking both show Thompson skill as a defender. its the same metric that was used to to validate Green as a defensive player of the year candidate.

Sportsvu is video tracking that is precise to the point they can tell you how many times a player touched the ball. how fast he ran how long he ran. they can determine whether a play is contested and their classification of plays and play types was quantified by coaches and GM who worked with sportsvu to unroll this tracking.

Im sure thougH eventually RAPM will be updated to include these stats but your refuting of the statistic itself is akin to saying a guy shooting well in catch and shoot situations only does so because someone passed him the ball when he was set for a shot.

Clevelands defense saw on Average in the playoffs.
N/A= less than 10 possessions for all 20 games
Transition: 14.8 possessions per game
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov: N/A

Isolation: 8.3 possessions per game
Thompson:1.8 Freq 11.%
Mozgov:1.3 Freq 10.2 %

Ball: 19.1 possessions per game
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov:N/A

Roll Man 8.7 possessions per game
Thompson:1.5 Freq 9.5%
Mozgov:2.1 16.1%

Post up 5.6 possessions per game.
Thompson:1.4 possession Freq 8.5%
Mozgov:NA

Spot up 16.7 possessions per game.
Thompson:2.7 Freq 16.8%
Mozgov:2.4 Freq 18.9%

HandOff 4.3 possessions per game.
Thompson:NA
Mozgov:NA

Cut 7.6 possessions per game.
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov:N/A

Off Screen 6.2 Possessions per game.
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov:N/A

Putbacks 5.8 possessions per game.
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov:N/A

Misc 7.2 Possessions per game.
Thompson:N/A
Mozgov:N/A

While the Regular season is a Much better sample since it includes over 100 possesion
The playoff ratings can tell you who was having a good playoff.

Mozgov isnt gonna pick up the guy posting up. He is taking his guy in isolation and taking the roll man( he is horrible at it)

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

The thing I keep coming back to is how can Dan Gilbert pull the trigger on a long term TT deal when he knows that we could save about 300 million dollars (ballpark estimate) by inserting a vet minimum or MMLE guy in Tristan's place over the course of a 5 year arrangement. The guy who we get to fill that role may vary over those 5 years, but there are serviceable players out there who would gladly be a 3rd or 4th big on our team for 1.5 to 3.5 million dollars.

How is the upgrade of TT over a serviceable big man worth 60 million dollars a year?

Maybe my math is way off but I took a ballpark luxury tax figure of 4x the normal rate and multiplied that by the difference between an 18 mil contract per season vs a 3 mil contract per season.

Please tell me my math is way off because if I'm right it's just absurd for him to do this.

Because the Cavs are trying to win titles, and the difference in actual performance between TT and a "serviceable" player may cost you a win in the playoffs and cost you a series as a result. I really don't understand why so many fans are so concerned about Dan Gilbert's net worth if he isn't? Whether they sign TT or let him go, the amount they will be over the cap prevents them from using the savings to make other positions better with the money. I guess Dan Gilbert could buy an island or become Batman http://thefw.com/cost-300-million-batman-facts/.

Alright becoming Batman would be pretty cool, but I am not sure that is his goal and he would still be too far over the cap to add Robin Lopez to fight crime or play center.