Tristan Thompson

[Tornicade]

Realistically moron gets out to Toronto

The Toronto scenario is the least likely of all three..

Shouldn't Mozgov be getting a max? I can't see how he will settle for less. If he walks, what assets do we have to replace him? Did you forget the supply/demand and all other sh*t?


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Mozgov is not a max player and he wont get that in the market. I dont see the Cavs paying him more than 15 regardless of what happens with Thompson even in an inflated market.

 

[MirORich]

LeBron will not make 31 million next year. He can only opt out for a small percentage raise over this years salary.

He doesn't gain Bird rights in Cleveland(and the ability to get that 35% contract) until AFTER the 2016-2017 season. So his salary FOR the 2016-2017 season is going to be more in the 26-27 million range.

 

[MirORich]

LeBron will not make 31 million next year. He can only opt out for a small percentage raise over this years salary.

He doesn't gain Bird rights in Cleveland(and the ability to get that 35% contract) until AFTER the 2016-2017 season. So his salary FOR the 2016-2017 season is going to be more in the 26-27 million range.

 

[Paul]

LeBron will not make 31 million next year. He can only opt out for a small percentage raise over this years salary.

He doesn't gain Bird rights in Cleveland(and the ability to get that 35% contract) until AFTER the 2016-2017 season. So his salary FOR the 2016-2017 season is going to be more in the 26-27 million range.

OK that should help soften the damage some. So that takes my estimate down to 135 mil for 2016-2017

 

[Tendulkar]

The Toronto scenario is the least likely of all three..

Mozgov is not a max player and he wont get that in the market. I dont see the Cavs paying him more than 15 regardless of what happens with Thompson even in an inflated market.

So if he asks for a max, do you let him walk? If so how will cavs replace him?
I am really curious to know your take on this.


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[roozy]

So if he asks for a max, do you let him walk? If so how will cavs replace him?
I am really curious to know your take on this.


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He'd rather have TT at the max than Mozgov, which is crazy since neither of them deserve it or anywhere near it. I'd rather overpay Moz than TT, seeing as we saw what happened when we didn't have a legit center, it wasn't very pretty

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

The problem is that outside of an unlikely trade, we can't replace him. He's just good enough that we need him, but just bad enough that he's not worth what he's asking. Add that to an insanely inflating cap, and we have a difficult valuation.

SO STOP PROPOSING OVERLY SIMPLISTIC SOLUTIONS TO A COMPLEX PROBLEM.

This is something on which everyone should be able to agree. We can argue the concept of "value" in the abstract all day, throwing different stats and arguments out there trying to say what he's "really" worth, but the critical factor is what is the max some other team will be willing to pay for him. I personally think that teams will be more cautious next season than some expect because of the renegotiation of the CBA, but that's really just a theory/guess.

None of us actually know what TT will get offered next offseason. Maybe someone will offer him the max, maybe offers will top out at $14M or so. So much depends not only on the unknowable market itself, but on how TT performs this coming season. The range of possible offers is huge.

It is a fairly complex problem with a whole lot of unknowns, and a lot of moving parts.

 

[TitleTown]

you are talking about his value to our team, and we are talking about his value to every other team in the league. both matter just as much as one another. but ignoring the fact that he isn't worth near-max to any other team in the league is silly. that's called..........supply and demand.

No, it's not. You are GUESSING that no one will give him a near max next year, but no one actually knows for sure. BUT that is NOT the issue.

The issue of supply--is the CAVS--not the league. We have NO cap space to sign another player of TT's caliber. Meaning, the Cavs have a DEMAND and only TT can give us what we need.

This has nothing to do with what the rest of the league thinks TT is worth. We need him and we can't replace him without a trade (which doesn't seem very likely).

Therefore, we have a DEMAND, and ONLY TT can fill that demand. Therefore, he is using that as leverage.

Why do I have to keep explaining this to people?

 

[Otsego Mar]

No, it's not. You are GUESSING that no one will give him a near max next year, but no one actually knows for sure. BUT that is NOT the issue.

The issue of supply--is the CAVS--not the league. We have NO cap space to sign another player of TT's caliber. Meaning, the Cavs have a DEMAND and only TT can give us what we need.

This has nothing to do with what the rest of the league thinks TT is worth. We need him and we can't replace him without a trade (which doesn't seem very likely).

Therefore, we have a DEMAND, and ONLY TT can fill that demand. Therefore, he is using that as leverage.

Why do I have to keep explaining this to people?

You over value TT. TT is good for our depth, but not for his asking price. At this point I'll take a guy at the vet min to give us 15-20 minutes a night. If we stay relatively healthy, TT is expendable (the "ONLY TT can give us what we need" spiel isn't working for me). However, having TT as a reliable back-up will help keep other (more important) players healthy, and he has chemistry with the team.

LeBron saying that TT is important for our success is literally the only thing preventing us from forcing him to take the QO, IMHO.

 

[Paul]

You over value TT. TT is good for our depth, but not for his asking price. At this point I'll take a guy at the vet min to give us 15-20 minutes a night. If we stay relatively healthy, TT is expendable (the "ONLY TT can give us what we need" spiel isn't working for me). However, having TT as a reliable back-up will help keep other (more important) players healthy, and he has chemistry with the team.

LeBron saying that TT is important for our success is literally the only thing preventing us from forcing him to take the QO, IMHO.

Losing TT would probably put us more in a position where we would maybe have no clear cut 3rd big. Depending on Andy's recovery, it could end up being more like a 3rd big by committee situation:

Center/PF minutes:

Mozgov: 25
Andy: 15
Kaun 10
Love 33
LeBron 10 mins at the 4
----------------------------
93 mins out of 96


In this scenario, the free agent big would only be required to play 3 minutes a night. So if they sucked and all our players were healthy, we'd really not need them much at all. We'd be obviously less deep, but it would be doable. So maybe we can't replace TT with a player of equal quality, but you could offset the loss by playing the replacement player very little and playing your other bigs more. It's not ideal but it might be the best solution to our luxury tax issues.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Losing TT would probably put us more in a position where we would maybe have no clear cut 3rd big. Depending on Andy's recovery, it could end up being more like a 3rd big by committee situation:

Center/PF minutes:

Mozgov: 25
Andy: 15
Kaun 10
Love 33
LeBron 10 mins at the 4
----------------------------
93 mins out of 96


In this scenario, the free agent big would only be required to play 3 minutes a night. So if they sucked and all our players were healthy, we'd really not need them much at all. We'd be obviously less deep, but it would be doable. So maybe we can't replace TT with a player of equal quality, but you could offset the loss by playing the replacement player very little and playing your other bigs more. It's not ideal but it might be the best solution to our luxury tax issues.

Exactly.

However, I still think a deal will get done sometime (or he goes with the QO). I would be shocked if we traded him.

 

[Paul]

I think a lot of the debate over TT revolves around our perceptions of Dan Gilbert's approach to our team payroll.

If you believe that there's no meaningful limit to what Gilbert will spend, then there are less reasons to let any of our players go. It's all about getting the most bang, regardless of buck. TT at any price is better than no TT.

If you believe that there's a limit and it's potentially within reach, then suddenly you have to start thinking about which players are the most vital and which are less vital, realizing that it may come down to an either/or decision in the future. In this scenario, we can only keep everyone if we get everyone at the right prices, and even then it might at some point become impossible.

 

[Tornicade]

So if he asks for a max, do you let him walk? If so how will cavs replace him?
I am really curious to know your take on this.


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I spent about 20 minutes writing a response to this and the browser crashed. The auto save didnt seem too work.

87 million is the most Thompson will get and that would value at an 18% contract for the five years.

Thompson contract could start out anywhere from 14-16. 17 wouldnt be viable for one the Cavs would need to give him near min raises and he would bring in about 88 million.

Thompson is 16-20% guy based on his age. his consistency and steady improvement including his his offensive production in the playoffs.
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202389/tracking/shots/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202684/tracking/shots/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs

Rich had made a comment about Thompson dribbling the ball. compare Thompson and Mozgov on the dribble from the shooting dashboard on NBA.com. its fascinating stuff

Mozgov i have as a 15% guy which under the 16/17 projected cap would be 13.35 million. maybe he gets up to 15 million but he isnt a 25% guy , nor will he be a 30% guy the following year when he gets 7 years vested.

Here is the main differences
Thompson
-still at developmental age for big men.
-Potential
- work ethic
etc
Then you have Mozgov. Mozgov did not suddenly magically improve on his flight from Denver to Cleveland.
What did happen was he was surrounded by better teammates and he was utilized in a better more efficient fashion.

Mozgov will be 30, He was injury prone missing half the season 3 out of 5 seasons int he NBA.
He cant be counted on to produce more than 28 per game cause he gets gassed and prone to injury.

 

[Chris Parker]

I really can't see any situation where Mozgov takes a contract less than what TT makes. The idea he won't get what TT will when you saw what Kantner got, seems ludicrous, honestly.

If there are 4 GMs willing to give TT a max next yr there are probably 8 GMs willing to give T-Mo a max. Or at least it's a lot more believable. Anyone who somehow thinks he gets $15M after arguing the high cap is going to make someone give TT over $18M really needs to examine their logic.

BTW... Mozgov has a better work ethic if you want to measure it by staying after practice and working on his shot, and I don't believe you're right about TMo only being able to play 28 minutes. I'll give you one instead. When TT plays more than 35mn his production in the second half is a lot lamer. He gets just as gassed or worse because he relies on his hustle, which runs down, while TMo can lean more on his size.

Finally, He didn't improve on the flight from Denver, Denver is a notorious hell that makes very poor use of its players. His skills were there and will be even better utilized this season where TT's skills have reached their peak in use/usability. There isn't anything more than what we saw coming.

 

[Paul]

I spent about 20 minutes writing a response to this and the browser crashed. The auto save didnt seem too work.

87 million is the most Thompson will get and that would value at an 18% contract for the five years.

Thompson contract could start out anywhere from 14-16. 17 wouldnt be viable for one the Cavs would need to give him near min raises and he would bring in about 88 million.

Thompson is 16-20% guy based on his age. his consistency and steady improvement including his his offensive production in the playoffs.
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202389/tracking/shots/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202684/tracking/shots/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Playoffs

Rich had made a comment about Thompson dribbling the ball. compare Thompson and Mozgov on the dribble from the shooting dashboard on NBA.com. its fascinating stuff

Mozgov i have as a 15% guy which under the 16/17 projected cap would be 13.35 million. maybe he gets up to 15 million but he isnt a 25% guy , nor will he be a 30% guy the following year when he gets 7 years vested.

Here is the main differences
Thompson
-still at developmental age for big men.
-Potential
- work ethic
etc
Then you have Mozgov. Mozgov did not suddenly magically improve on his flight from Denver to Cleveland.
What did happen was he was surrounded by better teammates and he was utilized in a better more efficient fashion.

Mozgov will be 30, He was injury prone missing half the season 3 out of 5 seasons int he NBA.
He cant be counted on to produce more than 28 per game cause he gets gassed and prone to injury.

You're saying he won't get more than 87 million now or in 2016-2017 if he QOs this year? Again I ask you, what do you do as GM if he demands more than the 87 mil? Do you pay what it takes to keep him on board or do you cut him loose?

You're saying that Mozgov got better by virtue of playing on a better team, but can't the same also be said for TT and his improved FG% etc? TT's shooting and rebounding have shown no meaningful improvement since maybe his 2nd year in the league, outside of a bit of a bump on his 0-3 footers from last year which I think can be explained, as you say, from playing on a better team and having more open looks.

Mozgov is going to be one of the best big men available in the 2016 free agency. It's hard to imagine him accepting a salary that low unless he basically rejects bigger offers and returns to the Cavs for less money in hopes of winning a championship (or 2nd championship ) I hope you're right about us getting him on 13 mil a year though, that would be insane value considering the contracts bigs have gotten recently.