Victor Oladipo Crush-a-lot

[wuck]

There are 96 minutes at the 1 and 2.

So a random hypothetical breakdown......

At the 1:

Kyrie - 36 minutes
Dion - 4-5 minutes
Backup - 3-4 minutes

At the 2:

Dion - 28-30 minutes
Oladipo: 16-18 minutes

At the 3:

Oladipo: 10-12 minutes

No one is saying VO is a starting small forward but he could certainly spot duty 2-3 minutes per quarter there.

In that scenario VO could play with either Kyrie or Dion in every minute he's on the court and for 25-30% of his minutes, both.

I understand the math in your post, but I don't understand how the minutes would avoid a few problems.

To maximize minutes together with Kyrie and Dion, Oladipo would have to start at SF or play a lot there. Not what I would call spot duty.

And if you don't want him to play SF much, then he's not going play with Kyrie and Dion much at all. It doesn't seem like you can have it both ways. Either you maximize minutes together (and time at SF) or you keep him away from SF (and from the combo of Kyrie and Dion).

In this first minutes distribution, Oladipo would play 9 mins/half at SF, including starting against the other team's top SF.

Quarter 1
PG Kyrie 12
SG Dion 6 Oladipo 6
SF Oladipo 6 Other 6

Quarter 2
PG Dion 6 Kyrie 6
SG Other 3 Oladipo 3 Dion 6
SF Other 3 Other 3 Oladipo 3 Other 3

In this second minutes distribution, Oladipo would only play 3 mins at SF in a half, but he would be coming off the bench. Also he would only play 3 minutes together with both Kyrie and Dion. And he also plays 15 minutes straight (except for timeouts). Not exactly ideal.

Quarter 1
PG Kyrie 12
SG Dion 6 Oladipo 6
SF Others 12

Quarter 2
PG Dion 6 Kyrie 6
SG Oladipo 6 Dion 6
SF Others 9 Oladipo 3

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how you get around one of the problems. Is there some minutes scenario you have in mind that avoids both of them?

 

[Nathan S]

Where are you getting the deviation from? Just curious

Wouldn't using his career and figuring out the standard deviation off those number be a better predictor than just this last season which is the anomaly?

Dipio's career at IU he wa s 48/142 for 33 % (jumped to about 36 when he was in spot up sitautions iirc, can't find link)

After shooting 51% (19/37) up until the 5th of Feb 2013 he finshed the out remainng season only going for 35% (11/31)

The 35% is more in line with his career, up until the first few months of this year. I kinda of expect him to be in the 30-36% range because you have to take into account the increased distance of the NBA 3 point shot

Only the best shooters to play this game have their 3pfg % directly correlate between college and the NBA.

Shooters like Ray Allen see this 3p fg% correlate but it wasn't until his 4th year in the league that Ray adjusted enough to the range to where he was making them at a 40% clip

This site gives a quick, understandable rundown of the math (it uses an election poll as an example, but the math is all the same) http://www.sigmazone.com/binomial_confidence_interval.htm

Also, if you're looking at his career numbers, you're assuming he made no improvement at all over his three years...isn't it more likely that he did indeed make some kind of improvement over the 8 months between his sophomore and junior years, and that's the reason behind is drastically improved percentage this year? I think that realistically the worst case scenario here is that he's really a 36-38% 3 point shooter who got a little lucky. And even in that case, with his work ethic and promising form, I think he'll be a good enough shooter in the NBA that defenses won't ignore him on the perimeter the way they ignore Gee or Tony Allen.

 

[Kizzle]

Fear for alot of people is he cant play SF....Im at the point where iv seen 6' 4' Tony Allen guard 3 positions. Im starting not to care if VO cant play the 3. You dont pass up on a guy with the defensive potential as VO(Especially for MB) just because he doesnt play the position you want him to. Yeah I know I cant EXPECT a guy to ever be as good as Tony Allen on D right outta college but you gotta look at that as a ceiling for VO. Is Tony Allen worth being drafted in the top 5 even if you know he'll get all NBA defensive honors? In a deep draft maybe not, but for like the past 3 years yeah im drafting Tony Allen with picks 4 or higher......guy pretty much erases one player from the other team offensivly

 

[Nathan S]

I understand the math in your post, but I don't understand how the minutes would avoid a few problems.

To maximize minutes together with Kyrie and Dion, Oladipo would have to start at SF or play a lot there. Not what I would call spot duty.

And if you don't want him to play SF much, then he's not going play with Kyrie and Dion much at all. It doesn't seem like you can have it both ways. Either you maximize minutes together (and time at SF) or you keep him away from SF (and from the combo of Kyrie and Dion).

In this first minutes distribution, Oladipo would play 9 mins/half at SF, including starting against the other team's top SF.

Quarter 1
PG Kyrie 12
SG Dion 6 Oladipo 6
SF Oladipo 6 Other 6

Quarter 2
PG Dion 6 Kyrie 6
SG Other 3 Oladipo 3 Dion 6
SF Other 3 Other 3 Oladipo 3 Other 3

In this second minutes distribution, Oladipo would only play 3 mins at SF in a half, but he would be coming off the bench. Also he would only play 3 minutes together with both Kyrie and Dion. And he also plays 15 minutes straight (except for timeouts). Not exactly ideal.

Quarter 1
PG Kyrie 12
SG Dion 6 Oladipo 6
SF Others 12

Quarter 2
PG Dion 6 Kyrie 6
SG Oladipo 6 Dion 6
SF Others 9 Oladipo 3

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how you get around one of the problems. Is there some minutes scenario you have in mind that avoids both of them?

Well, for one thing your scenario has Dion playing 36 minutes per game...that's a pretty big jump from the 29 minutes per game he averaged as a rookie. Only 5 SG's managed that many minutes last season. If Kyrie plays 36 minutes and Dion plays a more ordinary 32 minutes, that means Dion spends only 20 minutes at the SG spot, leaving a healthy 28 minutes for Oladipo, who can scrounge up a few more minutes as a small ball 3 if necessary.

EDIT: To clarify, I think given a decent SF (i.e., not Gee), Waiters-Oladipo is perfectly workable in the backcourt. You risk getting burned putting a weak defender on either of those guys.

 

[Kizzle]

Also MB got Pavs to play D..........I really want to see what he does with VO, Tristian, Gee, Dion, and Kyrie

 

[Kizzle]

If I remember correctly MB keeps a smaller rotation than Scott. Im sure Mikey wont mind playing Dion, Kyrie, and TT over 30 mins a game if they are playing D

 

[Thelorn]

Like another said, I'm sure he'll make a good SG for someone else.

 

[Tornicade]

this discussion will take a radically different tone once the cavs pick position is determined. still noone has offered 5 guys they think the cavs would have ahead of him on the draft board.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

this discussion will take a radically different tone once the cavs pick position is determined. still noone has offered 5 guys they think the cavs would have ahead of him on the draft board.

Noel, Porter, Len, Zeller, Bennett.

 

[Douglar]

Noel, Porter, Len, Zeller, Bennett.

I'd replace Zeller with McLemore, but yeah, there are other options.

My guess is that Oladipo is probably 5th or 6th on the Cavs draft board.

 

[Nathan S]

Why would Bennett, Len, Zeller, and McLemore be ahead of Oladipo on our board? Bennett and Zeller both arguably have lower floors and lower ceilings than Oladipo, and unless we think Zeller can hold his own at center, these guys are not better fits than Oladipo either. I can see how you would make an argument for Len, but between his stress fracture injury and the abundance of centers in the late lottery region, I don't see us picking him over 'Dipo either. I can also see the argument for McLemore, but I think Oladipo is a better fit for us on defense (can switch onto dangerous point guards) and offense (doesn't need the ball in his hands to make an impact). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, advanced stats like Oladipo over any of those four guys (with the possible exception of Zeller).

I think our board goes Porter-Noel-Oladipo-McLemore-Len/Zeller, and I'm interested to hear any reasoning to the contrary.

 

[TheISHT]

1. Noel
2. Oladipo
3. McLemore
4. Len
5. Porter

 

[getBUCKED]

Why would Bennett, Len, Zeller, and McLemore be ahead of Oladipo on our board? Bennett and Zeller both arguably have lower floors and lower ceilings than Oladipo, and unless we think Zeller can hold his own at center, these guys are not better fits than Oladipo either. I can see how you would make an argument for Len, but between his stress fracture injury and the abundance of centers in the late lottery region, I don't see us picking him over 'Dipo either. I can also see the argument for McLemore, but I think Oladipo is a better fit for us on defense (can switch onto dangerous point guards) and offense (doesn't need the ball in his hands to make an impact). Finally, and perhaps most importantly, advanced stats like Oladipo over any of those four guys (with the possible exception of Zeller).

I think our board goes Porter-Noel-Oladipo-McLemore-Len/Zeller, and I'm interested to hear any reasoning to the contrary.

I definitely don't think Noel is lower than Porter, and Len is probably higher than you think. Just because there is an abundance of centers in the draft doesn't mean the FO wants an average big man. We are probably looking for the highest quality big man this draft IMO, so I hope the board is Noel, Len, Porter, Oladipo, etc. Hope we get the first pick though for more options such as a trade down or trade for a star (Love).

 

[I'mWithDan]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see how you get around one of the problems. Is there some minutes scenario you have in mind that avoids both of them?

The only scenario that avoids both is VO growing 3 inches. :gap:

The point of that post was to illustrate that VO would be on the court with a creator every minute he played, thus eliminating the need for him to have an incredibly polished offensive game.

The wildest arguments against him seem to come from people who say he'll be an offensive liability and that he'll have issues creating his own shots.

I was pointing out that concern is mitigated a bit if he has two players on his team that are very good at breaking down defenders 1 on 1. It presents offensive opportunities via catch and shoot, cuts off the ball, lobs, etc. Ways to manufacture offense without having the ball. Throw in that during crunch time, he'd likely be playing with both and I just don't think it's a huge concern. Not when considering the defensive culture change he could provide on the perimeter.

Oladipo clearly needs to improve a few facets of his offensive game but the potential is there. He's improved his midrange and long range shooting stroke dramatically and although that clearly plateaus at some point, I still think there's wiggle room for him getting even better. Ballhandling is the only thing you look at and get a bit uneasy but that is more of a repetition thing. It doesn't really take a ton of skill to become an above average ball handler, just an emphasis on it and enough hours. It's far easier to see a dramatic improvement there than in someone's shooting stroke, which is more mechanical.

 

[Qasim Mitchell]

Fear for alot of people is he cant play SF....Im at the point where iv seen 6' 4' Tony Allen guard 3 positions. Im starting not to care if VO cant play the 3. You dont pass up on a guy with the defensive potential as VO(Especially for MB) just because he doesnt play the position you want him to. Yeah I know I cant EXPECT a guy to ever be as good as Tony Allen on D right outta college but you gotta look at that as a ceiling for VO. Is Tony Allen worth being drafted in the top 5 even if you know he'll get all NBA defensive honors? In a deep draft maybe not, but for like the past 3 years yeah im drafting Tony Allen with picks 4 or higher......guy pretty much erases one player from the other team offensivly

Question (because all I know right now is draft express highlight videos): Who has the potential to be a better defender, Oladipo or Porter?

Hard to argue about how badly this team needs a great defender on the perimeter.