Xbox One or Playstation 4? What are you getting?

[Jack Brickman]

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. That was designed more as a demo/teaser/way to get people to buy another game though.

It's not like they didn't include it on the MGS2 disc, which is actually what I thought they would do this time around as well. But they clearly decided that if a fan really wanted to experience the "whole" story then they would but it anyways.

Yeah, I thought it was kind of shitty to not include it in The Phantom Pain, but they are including it as a free pre-order bonus for TPP, so I guess it's not a huge deal.

 

[gourimoko]

Phil Spencer of Microsoft essentially conceded the console war for this generation today. So, apparently there's no longer a question as to how this generation will play out. PS4 is projected to dominate the market, and I honestly don't think anyone thought it would be such a massive lead so early. I expected something akin to the Genesis/SNES race, but this is turning out to be a lot different.

Much earlier than I anticipated but most analysts suggest not only will Xbox never catch up, it won't ever even come close since PS4 sales are actually increasing both domestically and worldwide (particularly, Japan).

Oddly timed with the PS4 price drop, rumor has it Microsoft may try to shorten this generation in favor of a newer console sooner rather than later.

A new console wouldn't be a bad idea in a 2-3 years considering they won't likely move away from x86, so essentially the hardware components would be very similar. No real redesign is necessary.

@Mdog1

 

[Jack Brickman]

A new console wouldn't be a terrible idea provided they had full backwards compatibility for all Xbone games. If they don't at least do that, it just seems like they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.

Anyway, I've mostly moved away from console gaming. I don't even remember the last time I played a game on my Xbone or PS4. I mostly use my Xbone for streaming media and for being able to swap back and forth between TV and those media apps with a simple voice command. I haven't even turned my PS4 on in at least six months. Pretty sure the last game I played on it was Destiny, and I stopped playing that early in 2015 when it became clear that you were just grinding the same five missions over and over again a billion times. No idea what the last Xbone game was I played, although the next one will be the Tomb Raider sequel.

Every other major game release this fall is on the PC, so who needs consoles?

 

[spydy13]

Phil Spencer of Microsoft essentially conceded the console war for this generation today. So, apparently there's no longer a question as to how this generation will play out. PS4 is projected to dominate the market, and I honestly don't think anyone thought it would be such a massive lead so early. I expected something akin to the Genesis/SNES race, but this is turning out to be a lot different.

Much earlier than I anticipated but most analysts suggest not only will Xbox never catch up, it won't ever even come close since PS4 sales are actually increasing both domestically and worldwide (particularly, Japan).

Oddly timed with the PS4 price drop, rumor has it Microsoft may try to shorten this generation in favor of a newer console sooner rather than later.

A new console wouldn't be a bad idea in a 2-3 years considering they won't likely move away from x86, so essentially the hardware components would be very similar. No real redesign is necessary.

@Mdog1

I didn't take those comments as him conceding, but just honestly saying he doesn't know if they will. The 360 had a huge lead last gen but PS3 eventually caught up much later. Whether another "catch up" like that can happen again is hard to predict.

It's definitely not good for Xbox that the lead is so big when PS4 has very few good exclusives. If Xbox plans to catch up the time is now (as in this holiday season) before Sony unveils all the exclusives that their studios have been working on the past few years (Horizon:Zero Dawn being one that already looks great). That's probably why Sony dropped the price so it's at least competitively priced even if there won't be a ton of exclusives to draw a consumer that way.

As for Xbox trying to roll out something new in the next few years, at least they would have the excuse that the NX is rolling out early too, which would force Sony into the uncomfortable position of looking like the only ones on the market with "old" tech.

ETA: I just bought a Wii U and have no plans to buy a Xbox or PS4 (I owned all three of the consoles last generation at various points), so I'm the outlier in all of this.

 

[gourimoko]

I didn't take those comments as him conceding, but just honestly saying he doesn't know if they will. The 360 had a huge lead last gen but PS3 eventually caught up much later. Whether another "catch up" like that can happen again is hard to predict.

You may not have, but MSDN and Microsoft developers like myself do, as do their investors.

Same thing happened with WPF, XAML, Silverlight, "Web Native" and countless other technologies.

Microsoft does this all the time. You should never expect them to stick to a losing proposition.

I think most folks will likely read this as a signal that technological changes in some form are coming to Microsoft's console platform.

Since the framework/architecture is not likely to change, there is no console-gap between systems. An Xbox Two would be inherently compatible with an Xbox One and vice versa.

It's definitely not good for Xbox that the lead is so big when PS4 has very few good exclusives. If Xbox plans to catch up the time is now (as in this holiday season) before Sony unveils all the exclusives that their studios have been working on the past few years (Horizon:Zero Dawn being one that already looks great). That's probably why Sony dropped the price so it's at least competitively priced even if there won't be a ton of exclusives to draw a consumer that way.

I don't think any of this is possible any longer to be honest. It's wishful thinking. PS4 will likely outsell Xbox by 2:1 or greater this holiday season.

As for Xbox trying to roll out something new in the next few years, at least they would have the excuse that the NX is rolling out early too, which would force Sony into the uncomfortable position of looking like the only ones on the market with "old" tech.

The time to market for a new x86-console would be short. I highly doubt both wouldn't be prepared at the same time. These systems are mostly off-the-shelf components just like the original Xbox.

I think the takeaway point from all of this is that I don't see this generation lasting another 4-5 years. That's for damn sure.

I also don't think Microsoft really wants to be in the console gaming market anyway. I think they'd prefer to consolidate as many users as possible into the HTPC/DVR/STB market and sell STBs with gaming features which has been a long sought business plan by numerous hardware vendors.

With Steam Machines coming... Things are bound to change rapidly.

 

[TyGuy]

I think we can say with confidence that this is by far the worst console generation since before the nes revived the gaming industry.

The tech was old and shitty on arrival and the gaming lineup has been meh and it's already on year two.

I actually had a reason to buy a PS3 last generation because of blu ray, some exclusives from naughty dog, final fantasy (which was ass) and metal gear.

Metal gear and final fantasy as well as just about everything else is on PC now.

 

[gourimoko]

I think we can say with confidence that this is by far the worst console generation since before the nes revived the gaming industry.

The tech was old and shitty on arrival and the gaming lineup has been meh and it's already on year two.

I actually had a reason to buy a PS3 last generation because of blu ray, some exclusives from naughty dog, final fantasy (which was ass) and metal gear.

Metal gear and final fantasy as well as just about everything else is on PC now.

Agree with everything you said..

They are selling crap hardware at a premium... built an entire platform around it.

Following Nintendo's lead with the Wii..

Steam Machines are likely to change all of this though.

 

[spydy13]

I think most folks will likely read this as a signal that technological changes in some form are coming to Microsoft's console platform.

Since the framework/architecture is not likely to change, there is no console-gap between systems. An Xbox Two would be inherently compatible with an Xbox One and vice versa.

Just to clarify, are you saying that the system software won't change, but the hardware inside would be improved for the Xbox Two?

I don't think any of this is possible any longer to be honest. It's wishful thinking. PS4 will likely outsell Xbox by 2:1 or greater this holiday season.

I think this is the likely outcome, but again the PS4 doesn't have the exclusives to drive anyone to that system at the moment. If all you care about is playing Fallout 4 and the Xbox is $50 cheaper you'll probably go that route.

The time to market for a new x86-console would be short. I highly doubt both would be prepared at the same time. These systems are mostly off-the-shelf components just like the original Xbox.

I think the takeaway point from all of this is that I don't see this generation lasting another 4-5 years. That's for damn sure.

I also don't think Microsoft really wants to be in the console gaming market anyway. I think they'd prefer to consolidate as many users as possible into the HTPC/DVR/STB market and sell STBs with gaming features which has been a long sought business plan by numerous hardware vendors.

With Steam Machines coming... Things are bound to change rapidly.

I agree with you that the generation probably has another 3-4 years in it (with Nintendo jumping the gun a year or 2 early as they did this generation), but it will be hard for Microsoft to jump any sooner than that because they risk alienating the customers that did plunk down $400 for their last console and unless it is a major upgrade run into the problem that the millions of people who bought a PS4 aren't ready to upgrade.

I also agree with you that Microsoft seems to be more interested in keeping people buying PCs, which with them getting into the harder business on that end now, I could easily see them turning into just a publisher of games or turn the "Xbox" into their gaming PC brand.

As for steam machines, I think they made a mistake letting anyone make them as the general consumer will be confused by the differences, and eventually I think they'll settle for the brands they know in Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo who provide the exclusive IP they know along with the third party stuff on steam and (at some point down the road) the indie titles released there as well (although I doubt most of them even know about or frankly care about indies). Also, why would a PC gamer buy one when they already have a gaming rig that can do the same thing?

 

[TyGuy]

Agree with everything you said..

They are selling crap hardware at a premium... built an entire platform around it.

Following Nintendo's lead with the Wii..

Steam Machines are likely to change all of this though.

Yeah, how do they think they are, apple?

 

[spydy13]

Following Nintendo's lead with the Wii..

Wii at least had a gimmick, and honestly Nintendo has never pursued top of the line graphics. Gameplay and innovations in gameplay have always been the most important thing for them.

PS4 and XBone are positioning themselves as "gaming machines" though, and don't really have an excuse (although it's hard to argue that there wasn't a graphically jump between the two generations, it just may not have been enough).

 

[gourimoko]

Just to clarify, are you saying that the system software won't change, but the hardware inside would be improved for the Xbox Two?

The kernel almost certainly will not change. The graphics drivers and some other firmware will change with changing hardware. But the architecture will be 100% identical and that's a certainty.

I think this is the likely outcome, but again the PS4 doesn't have the exclusives to drive anyone to that system at the moment. If all you care about is playing Fallout 4 and the Xbox is $50 cheaper you'll probably go that route.

But what you're saying isn't really born out by the facts. Even with the PS4 being more expensive, it still moves far more units. So, I'm not sure how you've come to this conclusion?

This is why Phil is saying what he is today.

And understand, I'm not a fan of either console, I'm speaking solely as someone in the development industry.

I agree with you that the generation probably has another 3-4 years in it (with Nintendo jumping the gun a year or 2 early as they did this generation), but it will be hard for Microsoft to jump any sooner than that because they risk alienating the customers that did plunk down $400 for their last console and unless it is a major upgrade run into the problem that the millions of people who bought a PS4 aren't ready to upgrade.

I think you misunderstand me.

I do not think this generation has another 3-4 years in it.

The reasons are outlined above. There is no architecture gap between this generation and future generations of Xbox.

So you're not alienating consumers by releasing a console that is not only backwards compatible with the last two consoles natively (One) and through emulation (360); but releasing firmware allowing the Xbox One to be forwards compatible with the Xbox Two for at least several years.

So, think about it, what exactly would the complaint be? Microsoft shouldn't release a new console that plays the same games? Haha.. That's like saying Apple shouldn't release the iPhone 6s because the 6 is too new, etc etc..

Microsoft is very likely to move in this direction as this is how they've operated in the past, and this is how both Google and Apple operate with their OS versioning system.

I also agree with you that Microsoft seems to be more interested in keeping people buying PCs, which with them getting into the harder business on that end now, I could easily see them turning into just a publisher of games or turn the "Xbox" into their gaming PC brand.

I.. don't actually think this.. lol, I think you misunderstand me.

Microsoft is moving away from the PC market. We've known this for years. They spent billions of dollars transitioning the Windows kernel and Office source to the ARM platform as well as the UI/UX to mobile compatibility.

Microsoft is doing everything they can to be prepared for the next 10 years of transitioning away from PCs and towards laptops, STBs, and mobiles.

Hence buying Nokia, Windows 8, Roslyn, and the new move of their C++ compiler (which is the foundation of all their software) to LLVM to support non x86-platforms as well as non-Microsoft operating systems.

They are hedging their bets that the Windows monopoly will eventually fail with the emergency of Linux/Unix (MacOS) in consumer devices.

As for steam machines, I think they made a mistake letting anyone make them as the general consumer will be confused by the differences, and eventually I think they'll settle for the brands they know in Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo who provide the exclusive IP they know along with the third party stuff on steam and (at some point down the road) the indie titles released there as well (although I doubt most of them even know about or frankly care about indies).

I think this is way off-base.

Gamers generally buy the best hardware they can afford, with the best games.

Given there aren't many console exclusives left; what is the reason to buy one over a configurable, upgradable Steam Machine?

Also... it was brilliant making Steam an open system available to anyone. They realize you make no money from console sales and are focusing on expanding STEAM the platform, not trying to monopolize the hardware.

This same argument was used against Google re: fragmentation, and look how that turned out.

Also, why would a PC gamer buy one when they already have a gaming rig that can do the same thing?

Because they might not have a gaming rig that can do the same thing?
Because their gaming rig might be out of date?
Because they want a portable gaming rig (sign me up)?
Because they want HTPC capabilities on the gaming system (sign me up)?
Because they want Steam integration more so than what's presently offered (sign me up)?
Because these machines essentially replace consoles (sign me up)?

The more relevant question is why would a console gamer not buy one of these things?

To play Mario? Lol..

Dunno if you know this but Nintendo is selling it's games on Android/iOS.. That means you'll be able to play Mario/Zelda games on Steam Machines but not on any Microsoft or Sony platform.

That's the direction things are going..

 

[gourimoko]

Wii at least had a gimmick, and honestly Nintendo has never pursued top of the line graphics.

Hate to differ with you but...

The Gamecube was the first Nintendo console that did not have graphical superiority to it's rivals since the Sega Master System; which Nintendo beat anyway due to using hardware modifications (custom chips) inside their cartridges.

This wasn't by design though. The Gamecube was intended to be graphically superior to other consoles, but it was a poor architectural design and difficult to maximize.

By the time the initial designs were finalized and pre-launch code started coming back, it was apparent that it would be difficult to use the architecture to compete directly against the Xbox, so it settled into second-place.

The Wii was different. It was a complete and total departure for Nintendo from this mindset since they wanted to now maximize revenue by profiting from console sales and releasing a very user-friendly development kit.

Gameplay and innovations in gameplay have always been the most important thing for them.

Can't argue with that.

PS4 and XBone are positioning themselves as "gaming machines" though, and don't really have an excuse (although it's hard to argue that there wasn't a graphically jump between the two generations, it just may not have been enough).

The Xbox One isn't marketing itself this way; but instead is really focusing on the "value add" of having an HTPC. They are hoping to get people hooked on the idea of having all of this enhanced integration with their cable provider, a feature that PS4 simply does not offer for whatever reason.

I would expect Microsoft to strongly move down this path in their next console.

 

[gourimoko]

A new console wouldn't be a terrible idea provided they had full backwards compatibility for all Xbone games. If they don't at least do that, it just seems like they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.

The general idea is that Microsoft would offer several years of forward-compatibility from the Xbox One to the Xbox Two.

This is the same thing Apple and Google are doing with their OS releases; particularly Apple.

Anyway, I've mostly moved away from console gaming. I don't even remember the last time I played a game on my Xbone or PS4.

Agreed.

I mostly use my Xbone for streaming media and for being able to swap back and forth between TV and those media apps with a simple voice command.

I think this is it's biggest selling point.

Every other major game release this fall is on the PC, so who needs consoles?

Precisely.

Lol.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I think this is it's biggest selling point.

Totally agree. I kind of wish I had waited for a price drop to buy one, but I love how I can seamlessly jump between cable TV, YouTube, Netflix, Vudu, HBO Go, the WWE Network, and the various other apps.

 

[spydy13]

But what you're saying isn't really born out by the facts. Even with the PS4 being more expensive, it still moves far more units. So, I'm not sure how you've come to this conclusion?

But for the first year they were more expensive because they stupidly believed in the Kinect. Sony blew them out of the water with a cheaper machine long before they decided to lower the costs dramatically.

I think you misunderstand me.

I do not think this generation has another 3-4 years in it.

The reasons are outlined above. There is no architecture gap between this generation and future generations of Xbox.

So you're not alienating consumers by releasing a console that is not only backwards compatible with the last two consoles natively (One) and through emulation (360); but releasing firmware allowing the Xbox One to be forwards compatible with the Xbox Two for at least several years.

So, think about it, what exactly would the complaint be? Microsoft shouldn't release a new console that plays the same games? Haha.. That's like saying Apple shouldn't release the iPhone 6s because the 6 is too new, etc etc..

Microsoft is very likely to move in this direction as this is how they've operated in the past, and this is how both Google and Apple operate with their OS versioning system.

Cross generation games are always shitty though, which is why we have seen series recently that have switched to just focusing on this current generation so that the best possible version is put forward. And again, if we're talking about an "S" level of jump (to continue with your Apple comparison) is that really enough to move the needle and cause people to make another big investment?

Also, most hardcore people are used to get the latest and greatest phone, but that's not the case with consoles where people are used to getting 5 years or so out of the system.

I.. don't actually think this.. lol, I think you misunderstand me.

Microsoft is moving away from the PC market. We've known this for years. They spent billions of dollars transitioning the Windows kernel and Office source to the ARM platform as well as the UI/UX to mobile compatibility.

Microsoft is doing everything they can to be prepared for the next 10 years of transitioning away from PCs and towards laptops, STBs, and mobiles.

Hence buying Nokia, Windows 8, Roslyn, and the new move of their C++ compiler (which is the foundation of all their software) to LLVM to support non x86-platforms as well as non-Microsoft operating systems.

They are hedging their bets that the Windows monopoly will eventually fail with the emergency of Linux/Unix (MacOS) in consumer devices.

I did, although I don't distinguish between tower PCs and laptops (although I know the former is very much becoming a thing of the past).

My point though is that it seems like Microsoft has been hedging their bets recently by putting a lot of their games on PC as well and not really committing to the home console market.

I think this is way off-base.

Gamers generally buy the best hardware they can afford, with the best games.

Given there aren't many console exclusives left; what is the reason to buy one over a configurable, upgradable Steam Machine?

Also... it was brilliant making Steam an open system available to anyone. They realize you make no money from console sales and are focusing on expanding STEAM the platform, not trying to monopolize the hardware.

This same argument was used against Google re: fragmentation, and look how that turned out.

The exclusives. That's why Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are worried about creating IP that people care about and want to come back to their systems for, because you're right that if third party games are all you care about then getting the best system is all that matters.

Because they might not have a gaming rig that can do the same thing?
Because their gaming rig might be out of date?
Because they want a portable gaming rig (sign me up)?
Because they want HTPC capabilities on the gaming system (sign me up)?
Because they want Steam integration more so than what's presently offered (sign me up)?
Because these machines essentially replace consoles (sign me up)?

The more relevant question is why would a console gamer not buy one of these things?

To play Mario? Lol..

Dunno if you know this but Nintendo is selling it's games on Android/iOS.. That means you'll be able to play Mario/Zelda games on Steam Machines but not on any Microsoft or Sony platform.

That's the direction things are going..

Fair enough. I thought the personalization and general "building" of the machine was the big draw, but I see where you're coming from.

As I said above though, exclusives could still keep people from embracing Steam machines as their only console.

And yes, I know Nintendo is planning to make mobile games (although they've said that they won't be "core" games), but they are doing that mainly because the Wii U is a gigantic flop and they're trying to make money anywhere they can, including toys, licensing deals for theme parks, movies, TV shows, etc. If/when the NX fails, they'll probably go third party and if Steam Machines are a hit then you are probably right that they'll put their full games there. If not Steam, Microsoft's machine would be next, as I see no chance they bury the hatchet with Sony.