AZ_
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It's hard to predict the NCAA because consistency isn't the name of their game. Usually, there needs to be a failure to monitor or LOIC to have postseason bans. Those aren't likely forthcoming unless their is some surprise. The NCAA received a lot of bad press from allowing the tat 5 to play in the Sugar Bowl. They may feel that a one year bowl ban would be a mulligan of sorts for them. As for sticking with Tressel, who knows how the NCAA will interpret that? He is gone after all. Will they be mad because of OSU's clumsy press conference or because Tressel didn't leave soon enough? That's hard to say. It's pretty clear to me that OSU has cooperated with the investigation which is far more than USC did. Will that help them in the NCAA's mind. Again, who knows?
As for scholly losses, I think the precedent is usually around 2 for each ineligible player. So, OSU may get hit with 10-12 scholly losses. As a side note, and this is the homer in me, I think OSU is also being punished by this constant media blitz. It is hurting recruiting and IMO unfair to the university to allow them to just twist in the wind. Even for people that hate OSU, they should agree that they deserved to be judged and move forward and not have recruits being poached because of the uncertainty. But, I know they won't get any sympathy there.
Call it homerism if you want...but quite honestly it's the truth.
Look at the media coverage Oregon is receiving for their obviously worse infractions.
It's not hard to see the difference.