It's not nearly as much of a risk in that 7-9 range as you're making it out to be. Less than half a percent change COMBINED between the 7 and 8 spots, and just a little over 3% in the 9 spot.
And four close losses? Come on, every team has close losses. The Hawks have a half dozen and just got John Collins back. I could see them passing us.
8 and 9 are pretty safe. 9 means just under a 97% chance we keep our pick. 8 is over 99.6%.
Plus, we're currently the 4th worst team in the NBA. I'll bet the Knicks pass us before we pass anyone else, which would make us the 3rd worst. We'd have to play close to .500 ball the rest of the way in order to put our pick at risk, and I don't think we're in any danger of that happening.
We're not playing that well. Sure, we've shown signs of growth, which is great, but we're still 3-7 in our last 10 with home losses to Charlotte, Detroit, and Minnesota.