BMAN
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Must of fully laid off the Cap’n Crunch then.
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The 2020 Cleveland Indians
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NorthCoastBias
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Keith Law put out his newest mock draft for The Athletic. Here's a blurb on his Indians pick:
23. Cleveland Indians: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
If I’m in the ballpark here, this would be the first draft ever that didn’t have a high school pitcher go in the top 20 picks, a reflection of the college-heavy class and the abrupt end to the spring before pitchers like Abel or Nick Bitsko (who could go in the 21-40 range) got a chance to pitch in any games. Cleveland has had no issue at all taking risks on high-upside high school arms the last three years with Brady Aiken (which didn’t work out), Ethan Hankins (promising so far), and Danny Espino (TBD).
23. Cleveland Indians: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit (Ore.) HS
If I’m in the ballpark here, this would be the first draft ever that didn’t have a high school pitcher go in the top 20 picks, a reflection of the college-heavy class and the abrupt end to the spring before pitchers like Abel or Nick Bitsko (who could go in the 21-40 range) got a chance to pitch in any games. Cleveland has had no issue at all taking risks on high-upside high school arms the last three years with Brady Aiken (which didn’t work out), Ethan Hankins (promising so far), and Danny Espino (TBD).
Derek
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I like Espino, Hankins, and McKenzie, but what is up with the Indians and prep arms?
Prep arms are the riskiest guys out there, and IIRC they aren’t getting these guys under slot value.
Typically, they seem to be ahead of the curve, so this has intrigued me the last few years.
Prep arms are the riskiest guys out there, and IIRC they aren’t getting these guys under slot value.
Typically, they seem to be ahead of the curve, so this has intrigued me the last few years.
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A franchise is a business, so of course money is going to matter. Especially for those owners whose franchises aren't supported by a lot of outside income. The owners aren't going to restart the season and become liable for salaries if they believe they'll end up losing more money than if they didn't play at all. Nor should they.
There obviously is a potential deal where both sides are better off than no baseball, because the players are literally earning nothing right now, and something is always better than nothing. The problem in these kind of negotiations is always trust -- that the other side is screwing you over. My guess is that there will be a deal reached if they can agree on a mechanism that eliminates the trust issue. I'm not entirely sure that will happen, though.
Mott the Hoople
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Player development has changed. Places like Driveline can really accelerate a pitchers career. Indians seem to develop pitching better than most organizations.
That being said, there's nothing like playing games, which there will be no MiLB this season. But the kids will still physically grow. So I hope the organization has some plan for them.
That being said, there's nothing like playing games, which there will be no MiLB this season. But the kids will still physically grow. So I hope the organization has some plan for them.
Derek
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If this is in response to me, I’m not talking about player development skills.
I have all the faith in the world in the Indians player development abilities.
However, highly drafted prep arms have such a low success rate compared to their peers that a guy’s profile really needs to stand out to warrant taking one in the first two rounds.
In short, if you’re drafting a prep arm, you need to think he’s the next Kershaw. Otherwise, the risk isn’t worth it.
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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I'm definitely not as plugged into the MLB draft as most on here (Especially with the new influx of talent from IBI), but perhaps it's taking a gamble that we can get a guy who might be a #1 overall type talent, later in the first round?
I guess I really like the Espino pick, and he's the type of talent where, if he went to college, reached the top end of his projections and really lit it up, he'd be a guy who might go #1 overall, and certainly would be a guy selected outside of where the Indians could draft him.
Maybe we're gambling on elite potential guys in the first, knowing that we can develop more refined, but less physically gifted, guys later in the draft? Maybe we're comfortable finding the next Kluber, Bieber, Plesac, Civale, Plutko et al and we're willing to swing for the stars in the first because of that?
Derek
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That’s what I’m curious about.
What are they seeing in the profile of these HS arms? Absurd spin rates? Something in their delivery?
I trust the organization to find and develop talent, so I’m interested in why they’re bucking the trend in this instance because the new age thinking is to avoid prep arms early in the draft.
Gson
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Like with any other prospect..there are characteristics that can be seen and projected from what is seen.. There is a grading system.. typically the 20/80 scale.. and it fits many pitchers.. A pitcher with a "current 55+/FV60" rating on a FB.. says he can get already to ML level velo.. have command of the pitch.. have control of the zone while pitching.. spins it in a higher percentile of his peers..etc. but.. may need honing/refinement.. couple this with physical qualities, baseball IQ, coachability, multiple sports successes and character.. & this is a guy the Indians will have interest in.. sort of like Lenny Torres.. not a huge guy by any means.. (is currently injured) but, as a draft pick, when he was selected.. this guy could be special..
There is an entire cottage industry of evaluation criteria.. some valid.. some Jup-like..
Thoughts?..
Derek
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Trust me when I say I'm not trying to be snippy, but I'm aware of all of this. Despite being a Cavs site, we have a really dedicated Indians section. 90% of my posts are in here.
I'm asking what they specifically saw in the prep arms we have drafted to lead them to believe that they are the exception to the rule (that prep arms are significantly more risky than college arms).
Is it that they had an additional early pick to hedge their bet, or is it that they felt the guy had the talent to be the #1 overall pick? Maybe it's a little of everything.
MadThinker88
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I think I got an idea on that one (part in bold). Think back to an underlying idea from MoneyBall - target & get good talents that are otherwise undervalued because most everyone is focusing in another direction.
For a while the Tribe was targeting (almost exclusively) college ready arms with some good success. Now other teams are looking for those arms so the Tribe moves toward the high upside HS arms.
That all said I would be interested in Jup's take on this as well.
Derek
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I don't think we ever saw the league really fully transition away from drafting prep arms for them to become undervalued assets although it may have occurred specifically in the case of Espino
Gson throwing shade.
PS Gson, I evaluate to teach, which is totally different than scout.
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I don't know much about the Indians drafting any longer Mad. Most of the people I knew that worked on the player development side (like Falvey, Atkins) have moved on or I haven't been in touch with (Binder, Buckle) the last few years, so it is hard to have a feel for their current philosophy. Sorry not much help on this one.
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Can they get spin rates on high school pitchers? Are they allowed to bring them to a facility equipped with the required high speed cameras?
Spin rates aren't everything - look at Phil Maton.
"[Phil Maton’s] fastball ranked in the 99th percentile and his curve in the 84th percentile [in spin rate] last season.
The spin helped the curve. The fastball not so much. Last year the opposition hit .135 (5-for-37) against Maton’s curve. They hit .329 (26-for-76) against his fastball." = Hoynes
It would be interesting to do a study and see what percentage of TOR starters were drafted out of HS vice college. My guess is that the really elite arms got drafted so high out of HS that it didn't make sense to turn down the money and go to college. If that's the case then college pitchers are higher floor/lower ceiling guys.