The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[Derek]

Can they get spin rates on high school pitchers? Are they allowed to bring them to a facility equipped with the required high speed cameras?

Spin rates aren't everything - look at Phil Maton.

"[Phil Maton’s] fastball ranked in the 99th percentile and his curve in the 84th percentile [in spin rate] last season.

The spin helped the curve. The fastball not so much. Last year the opposition hit .135 (5-for-37) against Maton’s curve. They hit .329 (26-for-76) against his fastball." = Hoynes

It would be interesting to do a study and see what percentage of TOR starters were drafted out of HS vice college. My guess is that the really elite arms got drafted so high out of HS that it didn't make sense to turn down the money and go to college. If that's the case then college pitchers are higher floor/lower ceiling guys.

Narrator: That was not the case

I'm not saying that spin rate is everything, but something needs to really pop off the page to warrant taking a HS pitcher anywhere in the first few rounds otherwise, the decision-making process is flawed and we're taking unnecessary risks. There needs to be something that the Indians think they've keyed in on that tells them "this guy is closer to Josh Beckett than Mike Stodolka or Matt Hobgood".

Also, of course, they're getting spin rates on HS pitchers. These kids go to dozens of exposure camps with that kind of tech available.

 

[jup]

Can they get spin rates on high school pitchers? Are they allowed to bring them to a facility equipped with the required high speed cameras?

Spin rates aren't everything - look at Phil Maton.

"[Phil Maton’s] fastball ranked in the 99th percentile and his curve in the 84th percentile [in spin rate] last season.

The spin helped the curve. The fastball not so much. Last year the opposition hit .135 (5-for-37) against Maton’s curve. They hit .329 (26-for-76) against his fastball." = Hoynes

It would be interesting to do a study and see what percentage of TOR starters were drafted out of HS vice college. My guess is that the really elite arms got drafted so high out of HS that it didn't make sense to turn down the money and go to college. If that's the case then college pitchers are higher floor/lower ceiling guys.

In the past (pre 2011) younger college guys were higher floor lower ceiling guys. Because the draft and bonus structure (no slot) were different. High ceiling guys out of HS got BIG BUCKS in early rounds, the Tallion's of current day rosters. But much has changed since 2011. So your stats, depending on how far back you go, would have to look at different eras (pre and post slotting) to get a true picture.

And yes you can get spin rates on HS kids all the time any more. Stalker (the radar gun that all scouts have used forever) now has a gun that will give you spin rate with velo. Almost every private pitching business has a Rapsodo available for use. Every Perfect game showcase has had Trackman for about five years now.

I look at spin rates and pitch profiles for my top guys down towards the 7th or 8th grade level. Not that the actual rate at that age matters as an absolute number, but it gives them an indication where they are (especially on axis of spin for breaking balls more than raw spin) and lets them set goals and track how they are improving. The days of the "dumb pitcher" throwing gas are over. To compete at the MLB level these days you really have to know how to spin a ball.

 

[jup]

Narrator: That was not the case

I'm not saying that spin rate is everything, but something needs to really pop off the page to warrant taking a HS pitcher anywhere in the first few rounds otherwise, the decision-making process is flawed and we're taking unnecessary risks. There needs to be something that the Indians think they've keyed in on that tells them "this guy is closer to Josh Beckett than Mike Stodolka or Matt Hobgood".

Also, of course, they're getting spin rates on HS pitchers. These kids go to dozens of exposure camps with that kind of tech available.

This (HS pitcher early) really isn't as true any longer as it once was. Because the knowledge level of the HS pitcher himself and about pitchers has expanded so dramatically over the last five years. There is just so much more information to be able to evaluate on these days.

And lets not forget the last current HOTTEST guy in the free agent market - Garret Cole was a first round HS pitcher by the Yanks in 2008 I believe. Just didn't take the million plus offered because his parents have $$$'s and are the product of grad school college educations. Now maybe he doesn't turn out the same if he doesn't go to college and get absolutely out pitched by Bauer at UCLA, but he threw 100 in HS and was a high ceiling guy for sure.

 

[Derek]

This (HS pitcher early) really isn't as true any longer as it once was. Because the knowledge level of the HS pitcher himself and about pitchers has expanded so dramatically over the last five years. There is just so much more information to be able to evaluate on these days.

And lets not forget the last current HOTTEST guy in the free agent market - Garret Cole was a first round HS pitcher by the Yanks in 2008 I believe. Just didn't take the million plus offered because his parents have $$$'s and are the product of grad school college educations. Now maybe he doesn't turn out the same if he doesn't go to college. But he threw 100 in HS and was a high ceiling guy for sure.

I don't think Gerrit Cole is a good example. He may have been drafted early out of HS, but the fact remains that he did go to college. Also, Cole is clearly a guy that might be the exception to a few rules.

So, that still goes back to my question of how the Indians are identifying these guys as worthy of the added risk. I believe the Indians have found some exceptional guys in Hankins and Espino. I'm just curious about what led them to these guys. Was it simply that both dropped much lower than previously anticipated for one reason or another (signability/injuries)?

 

[BimboColesHair]

The sudden influx of HS pitchers taken high by the Indians has more to do with the prospects themselves than it does a shift in the front offices mindset towards HS arms.

Indians have a type that they look for, and they’ve been lucky to find quite a few HS guys who fit that type recently.

If there is one thing abundantly shared with McKenzie, Espino, Hankins, Torres, and Hillman it’s that they all came into professional ball with clean, repeatable mechanics. Injury concerns with the adjusted workload is always a major hurdle with HS arms, and someone who doesn’t need a mechanical overhaul reduces the risk of serious injury. It’s not perfect (see Torres), but it’s safer than taking the raw upside guy with nothing but stuff but with no clue how to pitch.

Where the Indians have been real lucky is that they’ve found youngsters with good mechanics with unteachable stuff. Espino, Hankins, and Torres have prototypical power arms, but clean mechanics to go with it. Good combo to build off of.

But that’s their type for all pitchers, college, juco, HS, doesn’t matter. You better have good repeatable mechanics, good command, and know how to pitch or the Indians won’t draft you. They know they can develop off of that as a foundation to a league leading degree.

 

[jup]

I don't think Gerrit Cole is a good example. He may have been drafted early out of HS, but the fact remains that he did go to college. Also, Cole is clearly a guy that might be the exception to a few rules.

So, that still goes back to my question of how the Indians are identifying these guys as worthy of the added risk. I believe the Indians have found some exceptional guys in Hankins and Espino. I'm just curious about what led them to these guys. Was it simply that both dropped much lower than previously anticipated for one reason or another (signability/injuries)?

Yeah, that has been your question, and not one I tried to answer, because that answer doesn't exist unless you can talk to the guy that did the drafting and that isn't happening. So the question just becomes more of a rhetorical statement or a hypothetical to pontificate upon.

 

[Derek]

The sudden influx of HS pitchers taken high by the Indians has more to do with the prospects themselves than it does a shift in the front offices mindset towards HS arms.

Indians have a type that they look for, and they’ve been lucky to find quite a few HS guys who fit that type recently.

If there is one thing abundantly shared with McKenzie, Espino, Hankins, Torres, and Hillman it’s that they all came into professional ball with clean, repeatable mechanics. Injury concerns with the adjusted workload is always a major hurdle with HS arms, and someone who doesn’t need a mechanical overhaul reduces the risk of serious injury. It’s not perfect (see Torres), but it’s safer than than the raw upside guy with no clue how to pitch.

Where the Indians have been real lucky is that they’ve found youngsters with good mechanics with unteachable stuff. Espino, Hankins, and Torres have prototypical power arms, but clean mechanics to go with it. Good combo to build off of.

But that’s their type for all pitchers, college, juco, HS, doesn’t matter. You better have good repeatable mechanics, good command, and know how to pitch or the Indians won’t draft you. They know they can develop off of that as a foundation to a league leading degree.

Thank you. I was hoping you'd chime in.

This paints a clearer picture.

I always appreciate your insight.

Yeah, that has been your question, and not one I tried to answer, because that answer doesn't exist unless you can talk to the guy that did the drafting and that isn't happening. So the question just becomes more of a rhetorical statement or a hypothetical to pontificate upon.

Well, this is a message board. We think out loud and discuss. I've very much enjoyed the conversation.

 

[jup]

The sudden influx of HS pitchers taken high by the Indians has more to do with the prospects themselves than it does a shift in the front offices mindset towards HS arms.

Indians have a type that they look for, and they’ve been lucky to find quite a few HS guys who fit that type recently.

If there is one thing abundantly shared with McKenzie, Espino, Hankins, Torres, and Hillman it’s that they all came into professional ball with clean, repeatable mechanics. Injury concerns with the adjusted workload is always a major hurdle with HS arms, and someone who doesn’t need a mechanical overhaul reduces the risk of serious injury. It’s not perfect (see Torres), but it’s safer than taking the raw upside guy with nothing but stuff but with no clue how to pitch.

Where the Indians have been real lucky is that they’ve found youngsters with good mechanics with unteachable stuff. Espino, Hankins, and Torres have prototypical power arms, but clean mechanics to go with it. Good combo to build off of.

But that’s their type for all pitchers, college, juco, HS, doesn’t matter. You better have good repeatable mechanics, good command, and know how to pitch or the Indians won’t draft you. They know they can develop off of that as a foundation to a league leading degree.

The Indians, like all teams, draft what is out there. So to say they won't draft you is just misleading. What is true is younger pitchers come more prepared this day and age. Including mechanically. Heck, I have thousands of frames per second film of many of my HS pitchers that we match up to great mechanical models all the time. And we regularly film them and they work on their mechanics non stop. And what we do for our pitchers is not all that unique any longer.

Todays pitchers are just much better prepared at a younger age than ever before.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Thank you. I was hoping you'd chime in.

This paints a clearer picture.

I always appreciate your insight.

Well, this is a message board. We think out loud and discuss. I've very much enjoyed the conversation.

Yup.

And if there is one more thing to add, especially with them landing a few of those guys who were “signability” question marks causing them to drop.

The Indians reputation for what they can do for pitchers is second to none right now. If you are a pitcher who wants to make it and have the best chance possible to be successful at the MLB level, you can’t find a better system to do that for you. And that’s well known in the baseball community right now. Big reason they’ve been able to sign all of those guys. Hard to pass up the opportunity to be developed by this system right now.

 

[BimboColesHair]

The Indians, like all teams, draft what is out there. So to say they won't draft you is just misleading. What is true is younger pitchers come more prepared this day and age. Including mechanically. Heck, I have thousands of frames per second film of many of my HS pitchers that we match up to great mechanical models all the time. And we regularly film them and they work on their mechanics non stop. And what we do for our pitchers is not all that unique any longer.

Todays pitchers are just much better prepared at a younger age than ever before.

I can assure you, they most certainly have a type that they won’t touch with a 10 foot pole. Even if they are far and away the highest remaining prospect on their board.

And yes, the advancement in pitcher development at a young age has started to make a lot of HS arms coming in clean with their mechanics and more attractable as a higher floor, less risky pick. But there is more MLB worry about workload on young arms than ever before right now.

It’s not an exact science, Indians most certainly deviate from the types they like (Brady Aiken is a big one), but what has made them so good at drafting recently, especially when it comes to pitchers, is sticking to what they know they can work with and develop. All of these HS arms we are discussing fall right in line with that.

 

[Derek]

 

[ncinthenext3]

I'll say it again. If this is about the money and these guys go public airing a bunch of whining they're going to piss off everyone. This would totally suck.

 

[Derek]

I'll say it again. If this is about the money and these guys go public airing a bunch of whining they're going to piss off everyone. This would totally suck.

I understand that people will be pissed, but honestly, the players are under no obligation to take anything less than the amount they signed for.

Selfishly, I hope they do, but I also understand where they're coming from.

 

[dkbldev]

Blake Snell said that he wouldnt play with a pay cut. Curious to see if other players follow suit.

 

[jup]

Blake Snell said that he wouldnt play with a pay cut. Curious to see if other players follow suit.

There is some of that sentiment out there that is for sure. Not sure how vocal they will become, but within the bounds of talking to union reps and fellow players it is there.