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2020 NBA Draft

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Man Called X said:
Defense is about positioning and effort more than it is stats. Is he making the correct rotations to defend the shot? Even if better athletes will get the shot off easier, is he making the correct reads to apply pressure?

Positioning > timing
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Yeah, I can say that he has good positioning and fairly good defensive IQ.
His timing is excellent when he challenges players that try to get their shot off on post ups or when they have no momentum. His issue is his ability to jump off of one leg and contest on the move imho. I can't really tell whether it's an athletic limitation or preference...could be both. I do believe he can be a positive team defender at the next level.
 
my opinion changes like the wind on draft order preference for the cavs, i think its just easier to list the guys I 100% dont want:

RJ Hampton
Cole Anthony
Tyrese Maxey
Jaden McDaniels
 
What do you guys think of Udoka Azubuike? Has he improved enough this year to be a legit player?

I know his shooting is non-existent and he'll likely be a hack-a target, but he's been much better as a role man this year, has he not?

I don't know much about him but if he can be a rebounding rim runner, to me he looks like a really good asset to pick up in the 2nd. His great shot blocking and defensive anchoring would be so good for our team. I've read he's improved at defending in space as well, one more positive.

Just looks like a good prospect on the 2nd, what am I missing?
 
It's boring as hell but maybe the Cavs should just hit the sure double and take Okongwu if he's available (assuming there are no good trade down options). They've boxed themselves in pretty good taking PG's the past 2 years and are also on the hook for Love and Drummond for this season. I doubt they can financially keep Tristan...in addition to TT's skillset Okongwu should also be the better shotblocker and come into the league hitting FT's at a decent clip. I'll take it in this draft.
If they don't trade down and end up picking in the top 6 I'm onboard with Okongwu, Haliburton or taking the flier on Wiseman.
None of these wings incl Deni appear to be worth top 6 picks even in this draft. My favorite wings might be Green and Nesmith but they are roleplayers that will be drafted in the teens/early 20's. Digging around I found out both these kids apparently have small hands (about 8") which is always a bit of a physical handicap once they get to the league.
 
For me, it's James Wiseman or bust. The Cavs haven't drafted a good big man in decades. Wiseman has all the tools to be an all star in this league. He can be dominant on the defensive end with his ridiculous length. He's gonna be special.

I don't think Drummond is here long term, & Thompson is probably gone. We need a center anyway.

If Wiseman is there when we pick & we pass, I'll be really disappointed tbh.

I think the decision on who to draft should be pretty easy - our guard rotation is set, big men like him are extremely rare to come by. His combination of length, defensive potential & athleticism.

He's the #1 on my board & second isn't even close, which is Avdija, who would fill a need, even though we already have Osman. Does Avdija have significantly higher upside than Cedi? For every Luka Doncic, there are 10 Mario Hezonja's.

Either way, Wiseman is my guy. Okongwu is basically Tristan Thompson. I don't want the second coming of TT on this team. I had nightmares back in the day when it came to Thompson. He was so bad.
 
JJ_PR said:
Either way, Wiseman is my guy. Okongwu is basically Tristan Thompson. I don't want the second coming of TT on this team. I had nightmares back in the day when it came to Thompson. He was so bad.
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Why do people keep saying this? Okungwu is a significantly better prospect than TT.

Okungwu is an 8 DBPM player with better total block numbers per 100 and a significantly better block percentage. He produces the hustle stats TT did but he also scores far more efficiently (5 more points per 100, on the same number of FG attempts). He also shows flashes of having projectable range (TT was a sub 50% FT shooter.......Okungwu was 72%) and he has some of the best hands of any big in this class. TT plus scoring / range / hands would be a multi time All-Star. If I were betting, I honestly think Okungwu has a far greater NBA success rate than someone like Wiseman. I think Wiseman's physical gifts give him a higher ceiling.......but Okungwu reaches his far more often.

Just to put Okungwu in perspective here......because I think he is not given enough credit......his impact numbers in the stuff I calculate slot him as the #6 PF or PF/C prospect in the possession era......so comparing him to guys that can play both front court spots. He ranks just behind someone like Jaren Jackson Jr........so Okungwu being viewed as a consolation prize or safe pick is a little silly to me......especially when you consider his age and how he fits in the modern game.

I personally would take Okungwu over Wiseman but I get the appeal of Wiseman's pedigree as a #1 overall HS player, combined with his physical gifts.
 
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I'mWithDan said:
Why do people keep saying this? Okungwu is a significantly better prospect than TT.

Okungwu is an 8 DBPM player with better total block numbers per 100 and a significantly better block percentage. He produces the hustle stats TT did but he also scores far more efficiently (5 more points per 100, on the same number of FG attempts). He also shows flashes of having projectable range (TT was a sub 50% FT shooter.......Okungwu was 72%) and he has some of the best hands of any big in this class. TT plus scoring / range / hands would be a multi time All-Star. If I were betting, I honestly think Okungwu has a far greater NBA success rate than someone like Wiseman. I think Wiseman's physical gifts give him a higher ceiling.......but Okungwu reaches his far more often.

Just to put Okungwu in perspective here......because I think he is not given enough credit......his impact numbers in the stuff I calculate slot him as the #6 PF or PF/C prospect in the possession era......so comparing him to guys that can play both front court spots. He ranks just behind someone like Jaren Jackson Jr........so Okungwu being viewed as a consolation prize or safe pick is a little silly to me......especially when you consider his age and how he fits in the modern game.

I personally would take Okungwu over Wiseman but I get the appeal of Wiseman's pedigree as a #1 overall HS player, combined with his physical gifts.
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Don't you think that hte extremely shortened collegiate season skews up his numbers quite a bit?
 
Sir'Dom Pointer said:
Don't you think that hte extremely shortened collegiate season skews up his numbers quite a bit?
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The short answer is it does have some effect.....but he also played 28 games. He maybe only would have gotten 2-4 more if I were guessing.

You tend to see pull down if guys play in more high leverage games like conference or NCAA tourney games. Without those, there is some guess work.

When looking at prospects, you can generally ballpark this via conference per 100 numbers and that removes some of the ridiculous stat padding games against poor competitors that players of his caliber inevitably have. Even doing that, his numbers are pretty marginally affected. There’s nothing very concerning about his profile, even when boxing his stats in to conference play only.

His shooting numbers are unchanged and he’s actually a more efficient scorer on a per FGA basis in conference play. That, to me, is the area that is encouraging. That his offense seems to translate, even against tougher competition. I think if you have even some confidence his offense translates as he levels up, that is even more reason to take him.
 
I'mWithDan said:
Why do people keep saying this? Okungwu is a significantly better prospect than TT.

Okungwu is an 8 DBPM player with better total block numbers per 100 and a significantly better block percentage. He produces the hustle stats TT did but he also scores far more efficiently (5 more points per 100, on the same number of FG attempts). He also shows flashes of having projectable range (TT was a sub 50% FT shooter.......Okungwu was 72%) and he has some of the best hands of any big in this class. TT plus scoring / range / hands would be a multi time All-Star. If I were betting, I honestly think Okungwu has a far greater NBA success rate than someone like Wiseman. I think Wiseman's physical gifts give him a higher ceiling.......but Okungwu reaches his far more often.

Just to put Okungwu in perspective here......because I think he is not given enough credit......his impact numbers in the stuff I calculate slot him as the #6 PF or PF/C prospect in the possession era......so comparing him to guys that can play both front court spots. He ranks just behind someone like Jaren Jackson Jr........so Okungwu being viewed as a consolation prize or safe pick is a little silly to me......especially when you consider his age and how he fits in the modern game.

I personally would take Okungwu over Wiseman but I get the appeal of Wiseman's pedigree as a #1 overall HS player, combined with his physical gifts.
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I don't think it's quite so clear-cut. While Okongwu's defensive counting stats are marginally better than Tristan's, Tristan may have been the higher impact defensive player in college. He played in a tougher conference, and made the conference defensive team while Okongwu did not. Taking it another step further, JJJ was conference DPOY as a freshman.

In the 3 games Okongwu sat out, USC didn't really miss him. They won all 3, holding their opponents to 58, 56, and 51 points. He has an amazing motor and amazing athleticism, but it didn't quite translate to winning basketball like it did for some other top big man prospects. That's not to say he can't learn, just that he has some learning to do.
 
Nathan S said:
I don't think it's quite so clear-cut. While Okongwu's defensive counting stats are marginally better than Tristan's, Tristan may have been the higher impact defensive player in college. He played in a tougher conference, and made the conference defensive team while Okongwu did not. Taking it another step further, JJJ was conference DPOY as a freshman.
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Sure.....and media members vote on those teams. If I'm remembering correctly, Jimmy Butler never even made a Big-East 1st, 2nd or 3rd team in college. I don't think those awards say much.

I don't think Okongwu is an iron clad lock but I also would reject the notion that the Big12 is a good enough league to square the differences in all their defensive metrics:

DBPM
TT - 4.5
OO - 7.8

BLK Per 100
TT - 4.6
OO - 5.1

Block %
TT - 7.2%
OO - 9.8%

DRTG
TT - 89.5
OO - 90.5

TREB%

TT - 13.8%
OO - 15.3%

OREB%

TT - 14%
OO - 12.4%

In markers TT leads, the margins tend to be small (and it is a minority)......and I'm not sure how you would consider trying to counter the DBPM marker specifically. This doesn't even get in to how much better of an offensive prospect OO is.....or the fact that just his overall impact shows up more. PER, BPM....he just tends to show up in whatever metric people have out there.

TT had a pretty damn good pro career, to me. I have no idea what OO will do in the NBA but he certainly is a far more intriguing prospect than someone like Thompson. Even if you just want to call them equal on defense for the sake of this argument, they're just not even close as offensive prospects. OO was more efficient, on higher volume, is a better shooter and a more capable and skilled player in general on that side of the ball.
 
I'mWithDan said:
Sure.....and media members vote on those teams. If I'm remembering correctly, Jimmy Butler never even made a Big-East 1st, 2nd or 3rd team in college. I don't think those awards say much.

I don't think Okongwu is an iron clad lock but I also would reject the notion that the Big12 is a good enough league to square the differences in all their defensive metrics:

DBPM
TT - 4.5
OO - 7.8

BLK Per 100
TT - 4.6
OO - 5.1

Block %
TT - 7.2%
OO - 9.8%

DRTG
TT - 89.5
OO - 90.5

TREB%

TT - 13.8%
OO - 15.3%

OREB%

TT - 14%
OO - 12.4%

In markers TT leads, the margins tend to be small (and it is a minority)......and I'm not sure how you would consider trying to counter the DBPM marker specifically. This doesn't even get in to how much better of an offensive prospect OO is.....or the fact that just his overall impact shows up more. PER, BPM....he just tends to show up in whatever metric people have out there.

TT had a pretty damn good pro career, to me. I have no idea what OO will do in the NBA but he certainly is a far more intriguing prospect than someone like Thompson. Even if you just want to call them equal on defense for the sake of this argument, they're just not even close as offensive prospects. OO was more efficient, on higher volume, is a better shooter and a more capable and skilled player in general on that side of the ball.
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What's your source on DBPM? sports-reference.com calculates a DBPM of 4.9, which is obviously very good but a far cry from 7.8. I do think he's a good defensive prospect, to be clear...he has the top projected defensive impact of all prospects I'm looking at this year. I'm just wary of the possibility that his counting stats may overstate how good he is on that end.

The difference between Okongwu and Thompson on offense (at least from a standpoint of scoring potential) is more clear, but it's worth considering that fellow freshmen Nnaji and Stewart put up nearly identical scoring numbers. Are they all elite scoring big man prospects, or is the Pac-12 just soft defensively?
 
RedeemTeam said:
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There's a lot to like in this video especially the mechanics on that three off the DHO. He's one of be happy with the Cavs taking. He's an engine room and while his handle is weak his ability to throw ahead and willingness to do it are really valuable. His iq is strong especially for his age and he's long and has decent mobility.b
 
I'd be ecstatic to see them get Wiseman but would't be upset if they ended up with Okongwu. You need guys like him on good teams.
 
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