2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

What's your source on DBPM? sports-reference.com calculates a DBPM of 4.9, which is obviously very good but a far cry from 7.8. I do think he's a good defensive prospect, to be clear...he has the top projected defensive impact of all prospects I'm looking at this year. I'm just wary of the possibility that his counting stats may overstate how good he is on that end.

The difference between Okongwu and Thompson on offense (at least from a standpoint of scoring potential) is more clear, but it's worth considering that fellow freshmen Nnaji and Stewart put up nearly identical scoring numbers. Are they all elite scoring big man prospects, or is the Pac-12 just soft defensively?

I'll double check on the DBPM number. The per 100 numbers I get pull from a database that can take a long time to respond....sometimes it times out in the middle of requests. It's possible that DBPM number is old on OO but I will look what is in their prospect list UI.

Certainly, that is the concern with DBPM specifically......is if you do take issue with how or against who a player produces those stats, it is just a box score measure. The thing that is tougher to ignore with OO though, is if you just look around at the various people who run data through calculations and tend to be looking for different ways to quantify value, he's just near the top group in almost every one.

For scoring, honestly, it is tough to say (Re: Pac-12).......generally speaking, that is why I have tended to steer towards overall impact as a measure of trying to bucket prospects. It seems if you normalize to possession based metrics and then focus on baseline overall impact numbers a prospect needs to achieve, that tends to be a pretty good formula for identifying players, regardless of all the nuances to how they may produce those stats. Once you start digging in to specifics, relative to individual per 100 stats, I think it gets a little murkier.......as you bring in things like the above where the questions become tougher to answer on a case by case basis. Hopefully that made sense.

From what I can tell (and I'm just one person ) the baseline numbers NBA prospects have to achieve relative to overall impact are really hard to achieve. There's plenty of guys in the Pac-12 who fall short in overall impact.....including two you mentioned in Nnaji and Stewart.......but they are players where if you look at specific categories may seem comparable but those small margins here and there really add up if there is a wider lens trying to quantify total value.

 

[I'mWithDan]

This is a long watch but updated film breakdown with OO. I missed this from May, so I apologize if it was posted.

In addition to him having so many NBA tools, he seems like a culture building player as a personality.

The nugget on him saying he was 6'9 and change without shoes is pretty significant if true.

He's potentially taller and longer than expected. Really hope he does athletic testing at whatever combine there may be.

 

[Vipra]

I am trying to second-guess what Koby and team might be thinking.

We have nine players with guaranteed money next season - four guards (Sexton, Garland, KPJ, and Exum), four forwards (Love, Nance, Cedi, and Windler), and one center (Drummond, with opt-in). McKinnie, Wade, and Bell have non-guaranteed contracts - so I am not considering them in the equation. None of these nine would fetch a good return in trade. I believe all of them will be on Cavs' roster next season.

I like Wiseman a lot. But I think TT will be brought back at a team-friendly (or, at least, reasonable) contract and the Cavs will not look for a big man in the draft. As much as I like the young guards, I think the Cavs need a playmaker. The second need is for a wing players.

So, here is the order I think the Cavs will go with.

1. Avdija (may not be the second coming of Doncic, but he seems pretty darn good nonetheless)
2. Ball (too many guards, but we can use some star-power, besides his all-round game)
3. Vassell (fills a positional need)
4. Toppin (can he play SF?)
5. Hayes (I like him, but it seems like he's not scheduled to meet the Cavs)

 

[Derek]

I am trying to second-guess what Koby and team might be thinking.

We have nine players with guaranteed money next season - four guards (Sexton, Garland, KPJ, and Exum), four forwards (Love, Nance, Cedi, and Windler), and one center (Drummond, with opt-in). McKinnie, Wade, and Bell have non-guaranteed contracts - so I am not considering them in the equation. None of these nine would fetch a good return in trade. I believe all of them will be on Cavs' roster next season.

I like Wiseman a lot. But I think TT will be brought back at a team-friendly (or, at least, reasonable) contract and the Cavs will not look for a big man in the draft. As much as I like the young guards, I think the Cavs need a playmaker. The second need is for a wing players.

So, here is the order I think the Cavs will go with.

1. Avdija (may not be the second coming of Doncic, but he seems pretty darn good nonetheless)
2. Ball (too many guards, but we can use some star-power, besides his all-round game)
3. Vassell (fills a positional need)
4. Toppin (can he play SF?)
5. Hayes (I like him, but it seems like he's not scheduled to meet the Cavs)

Ball has an all-around game?

And no, Toppin can’t play SF. He can’t defend any position regardless, but his offensive skill set wouldn’t play well on the wing.

 

[JJ_PR]

I'm telling you, if Boban Marjanovic can play meaningful minutes in the modern NBA, there's no doubt in my mind how good an athletic freak like Wiseman can be, even at the traditional center height of 7'1". It would be a huge mistake to pass on him if he's there.

Okongwu is only good as a fall back option if we can't get Wiseman. I'm not fond of undersized energy bigs, especially that early in the draft. I want the guy who has potential offensively on the low block. Every team needs a guy like Wiseman.

 

[JJ_PR]

I am trying to second-guess what Koby and team might be thinking.

We have nine players with guaranteed money next season - four guards (Sexton, Garland, KPJ, and Exum), four forwards (Love, Nance, Cedi, and Windler), and one center (Drummond, with opt-in). McKinnie, Wade, and Bell have non-guaranteed contracts - so I am not considering them in the equation. None of these nine would fetch a good return in trade. I believe all of them will be on Cavs' roster next season.

I like Wiseman a lot. But I think TT will be brought back at a team-friendly (or, at least, reasonable) contract and the Cavs will not look for a big man in the draft. As much as I like the young guards, I think the Cavs need a playmaker. The second need is for a wing players.

So, here is the order I think the Cavs will go with.

1. Avdija (may not be the second coming of Doncic, but he seems pretty darn good nonetheless)
2. Ball (too many guards, but we can use some star-power, besides his all-round game)
3. Vassell (fills a positional need)
4. Toppin (can he play SF?)
5. Hayes (I like him, but it seems like he's not scheduled to meet the Cavs)

You'd pass on Wiseman because we have Tristan Thompson? That could prove to be a very costly mistake.

The last thing we need is another playmaker. The Cavs have drafted 2 high in consecutive drafts & could be looking to move on from one of them (or at least should be).

 

[I'mWithDan]

Okongwu is only good as a fall back option if we can't get Wiseman. I'm not fond of undersized energy bigs, especially that early in the draft. I want the guy who has potential offensively on the low block. Every team needs a guy like Wiseman.

Undersized energy big?

I get you like Wiseman, which is fine......but Okungwu said in the video posted above that he measured 6’9+ without shoes on. If he is a legit 6’9.5”-6’10” barefoot, that would make him an average sized Center prospect, let alone PF. DX has the average sized PF at 6’8.

If you consider how positions have downsized recently, and look at 2015 on, Okungwu is a pretty big guy given his age and how well he moves.

 

[Vipra]

You'd pass on Wiseman because we have Tristan Thompson? That could prove to be a very costly mistake.

I completely agree with you that Wiseman might turn out to be much better than TT. However, I think if the Cavs feel certain that Drummond will opt in, and also can bring back a fan-favorite in TT, they will go for that. This is an average draft at best, with no consensus top prospect. So the Cavs might play it safe with Drummond and TT. if the Sexton-Garland experiment bears fruit this time and the Cavs win some games, Drummond might also be a Cav for a long time. Who knows!

The last thing we need is another playmaker. The Cavs have drafted 2 high in consecutive drafts & could be looking to move on from one of them (or at least should be).

Sexton and Garland proved to be more of pure scorers than playmakers. From whatever I have watched, I think Deni Avdija is the one prospect in this draft that the Cavs should not pass on.

 

[JJ_PR]

Undersized energy big?

I get you like Wiseman, which is fine......but Okungwu said in the video posted above that he measured 6’9+ without shoes on. If he is a legit 6’9.5”-6’10” barefoot, that would make him an average sized Center prospect, let alone PF. DX has the average sized PF at 6’8.

If you consider how positions have downsized recently, and look at 2015 on, Okungwu is a pretty big guy given his age and how well he moves.

Meh. Wiseman is still 3 inches taller. Who would you go with, a poor man's Bam Adebayo or a healthy, more athletic Joel Embiid? Give me the latter please.

 

[Nathan S]

I previously mentioned Reggie Perry as a possible sleeper, and today noticed that the All-SEC 1st team is actually riddled with interesting sophomore prospects: Perry, Immanuel Quickley, Kira Lewis Jr, Mason Jones, and Keyontae Johnson. Of the 5, I hadn't really looked into Jones or Johnson until now.

Jones is an old sophomore much like Toppin, which is important to take into account, but he had one of the best pure scoring seasons in the country with 22 ppg on sparkling 61.4% true shooting. He rounds out the stat sheet reasonably well with 3.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game, both top-10 in the conference, and his strong, athletic 6'5" frame should hold up well in the NBA.

Johnson is one of the best athletes in the class with a burly 6'5" 230lb frame, a 6'11" wingspan, and a 41" max vert. He has a solid outside shot, canning 38% from deep and 77% from the line, and showed up big in some of Florida's wins down the stretch with 24 points 10 boards against Arkansas, 25 points 11 boards 5 dimes against LSU, and 18 points 11 boards against Georgia.

Who's your favorite prospect of the bunch? I haven't quite made up my mind.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Johnson is one of the best athletes in the class with a burly 6'5" 230lb frame, a 6'11" wingspan, and a 41" max vert. He has a solid outside shot, canning 38% from deep and 77% from the line, and showed up big in some of Florida's wins down the stretch with 24 points 10 boards against Arkansas, 25 points 11 boards 5 dimes against LSU, and 18 points 11 boards against Georgia.

Johnson announced he is staying in school another year, which is a little surprising considering his age. I do appreciate the team-first attitude. Plenty of similar prospects can't wait to leave college and get paid.

Norfolk's Keyontae Johnson to put NBA on hold for one more year

Keyontae Johnson, the former Norview star, announced on social media Tuesday that he plans to return to the University of Florida for his junior year

www.wtkr.com

He is my favorite fit for the Cavs but not the guy I think will have the best career out of the bunch.

Who's your favorite prospect of the bunch? I haven't quite made up my mind.

I think Immanuel Quickley can have the most impactful career if he lands in the right spot. He is an undersized combo guard, so horrid fit for the Cavs, but if he lands with a good team as instant offense off the bench as a rookie, he could have the same ceiling as Collin Sexton down the line.

 

[Nathan S]

Johnson announced he is staying in school another year, which is a little surprising considering his age. I do appreciate the team-first attitude. Plenty of similar prospects can't wait to leave college and get paid.

Norfolk's Keyontae Johnson to put NBA on hold for one more year

Keyontae Johnson, the former Norview star, announced on social media Tuesday that he plans to return to the University of Florida for his junior year

www.wtkr.com

He is my favorite fit for the Cavs but not the guy I think will have the best career out of the bunch.



I think Immanuel Quickley can have the most impactful career if he lands in the right spot. He is an undersized combo guard, so horrid fit for the Cavs, but if he lands with a good team as instant offense off the bench as a rookie, he could have the same ceiling as Collin Sexton down the line.

Ah, well that explains why Johnson hasn't been in mocks and thus escaped my notice. I agree it's quite unusual for a prospect of his caliber to stay in school; he should be a Wooden contender next year. And yeah, it's a shame because he'd be such a nice fit on the Cavs.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Out of sheer curiosity, I called in a favor from a friend and received Ball's per 100 data.

Here is what my stuff spit out on him:

Actually better than what I was expecting. GS is raw overall impact, ADJ is value less scoring, Pdiff compares him to his peers at his position, NET is an overall impact metric considering age, height and physical characteristics.

So my stuff sees Ball as an average PG prospect from a GS level, a plus player less scoring (these are generally positive numbers for floor), and then the light gray in the other two areas (relative to his peers and NET overall impact) are above average.

Given his age and that he produced these stats in a professional league, that is a pretty positive indicator for his outcomes. When I say "average" that doesn't mean bad.....it just means that he meets the baseline of what a 1st round PG usually looks like.

12 games isn't a huge sample size but it is interesting, relative to the competition.

 

[JJ_PR]

Out of sheer curiosity, I called in a favor from a friend and received Ball's per 100 data.

Here is what my stuff spit out on him:

Actually better than what I was expecting. GS is raw overall impact, ADJ is value less scoring, Pdiff compares him to his peers at his position, NET is an overall impact metric considering age, height and physical characteristics.

So my stuff sees Ball as an average PG prospect from a GS level, a plus player less scoring (these are generally positive numbers for floor), and then the light gray in the other two areas (relative to his peers and NET overall impact) are above average.

Given his age and that he produced these stats in a professional league, that is a pretty positive indicator for his outcomes. When I say "average" that doesn't mean bad.....it just means that he meets the baseline of what a 1st round PG usually looks like.

12 games isn't a huge sample size but it is interesting, relative to the competition.

With all due respect, who cares about Ball? Sexton is way better.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

With all due respect, who cares about Ball? Sexton is way better.

Well, they're better at different things. It's pairing that could work if Ball was able to defend SG's. Right now, though, he can't defend anyone. But he does have 2 guard size.