2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

He is a 3/4 who can guard 2-5. I see a lot of Danilo Gallinari before injuries limited his mobility. I've also heard Bogdanovic with better ball handling. He's a sure bet as a starting small forward because his shot has become so smooth, but the ceiling could be in question. If the Cavs are picking outside of the top two, I'm pretty sure he is the pick.

It is honestly a tough call, watching him. I think he's best suited to be a 4, relative to his matchups at the 3 at the NBA level......but it will also be pretty tough on him physically until his body matures. He seems to have the requisite length to be a 4 and his post defense looks solid for his age / frame.....and playing at the 4 would make him more valuable as a ball handler and lower the skill level needed to be effective.

He's really young......so his handle can improve but some of the recent pressure leads me to believe he's going to have tough sledding against the better 3's offensively......and if you remove his avenue to creation, I'm not sure he's a very interesting prospect......especially at the top of a draft.

I have to say, I don't think he's nearly at the level of a young Gallo in terms of shot creation. Before Doncic, Gallo was arguably the best pure scoring prospect ever to come out of Europe. Deni really seems destined to play a complementary role offensively, IMO.

 

[Randolphkeys]

It is honestly a tough call, watching him. I think he's best suited to be a 4, relative to his matchups at the 3 at the NBA level......but it will also be pretty tough on him physically until his body matures. He seems to have the requisite length to be a 4 and his post defense looks solid for his age / frame.....and playing at the 4 would make him more valuable as a ball handler and lower the skill level needed to be effective but it will be a grind.

He's really young......so his handle can improve but some of the recent pressure leads me to believe he's going to have tough sledding against the better 3's offensively......and if you remove his avenue to creation, I'm not sure he's a very interesting prospect......especially at the top of a draft.

I think we have reached the point of "eye of the beholder". The Cavs have said they aren't going to draft a point guard. That makes sense because Sexton and Garland were drafted to be projects. At that point, I'm willing to be generous and include Ball and Haliburton as shooting guards, eventhough I'm sure they would call themselves point guards. If you believe the rumors out there that they don't want to draft a guard period with their top selection, it's a stretch to say Ball and Edwards are on their board.

Can we trust this agent? Click for evidence.

At that point Wiseman, Avdija, Okoro and Okongwu all get boosts in draft value, maybe Toppin. For those that say the guards in this draft have shown more polish than the front court prospects, yeah. That's a problem that has existed for a few years now. The college game and the one and done system is a scoring guard showcase. We will find out more after the lottery, but the Cavaliers have forged a relationship with Maccabi Tel Aviv. The Israeli team loaned two of their young players under contract to the Cavs last Summer League. If the Cavs suffer the same bad luck they had last lottery, Avdija is a very real scenario.

 

[Adam]

The more I look at this draft the more it seems to be the 2020 of all drafts. So apt.

 

[I'mWithDan]

The more I look at this draft the more it seems to be the 2020 of all drafts. So apt.

I think the back end of this draft is weak but I disagree with the notion the top half isn’t at least good.

The big problem with this specific draft is our front office potentially reached on a top 5 pick last year, at a position that is one of the strengths of this draft. It was my reasoning for passing on someone like Garland last year. The Cavs would be in such a better position if their roster had room for any of Edwards, Ball, Halliburton. The fact that we don’t now introduces a lot of really boom or bust choices (save Okungwu).

When they made the decision to draft Garland, looking down the road, they had to get that pick right to not have it handcuff them and set them back. Being a year later and not knowing exactly what he is is a huge problem and to me, a failure by our front office. Maybe they will prove to be right but if they aren’t, it’s possible that that mistake will be compounded this year, where we pass on one of the more promising perimeter players in favor of fit.

 

[Nathan S]

I think the back end of this draft is weak but I disagree with the notion the top half isn’t at least good.

The big problem with this specific draft is our front office potentially reached on a top 5 pick last year, at a position that is one of the strengths of this draft. It was my reasoning for passing on someone like Garland last year. The Cavs would be in such a better position if their roster had room for any of Edwards, Ball, Halliburton. The fact that we don’t now introduces a lot of really boom or bust choices (save Okungwu).

When they made the decision to draft Garland, looking down the road, they had to get that pick right to not have it handcuff them and set them back. Being a year later and not knowing exactly what he is is a huge problem and to me, a failure by our front office. Maybe they will prove to be right but if they aren’t, it’s possible that that mistake will be compounded this year, where we pass on one of the more promising perimeter players in favor of fit.

Idk about that. Have you ever seen such a sad RSCI top-20? Okongwu is literally the only guy you can point to and say he exceeded expectations. Literally everyone else was treading water or tanking. A raggedy band of upperclassmen and international guys is the only reason this draft isn't a complete trainwreck.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Idk about that. Have you ever seen such a sad RSCI top-20? Okongwu is literally the only guy you can point to and say he exceeded expectations. Literally everyone else was treading water or tanking. A raggedy band of upperclassmen and international guys is the only reason this draft isn't a complete trainwreck.

I don’t follow RSCI. Is there any correlation between it and draft success? I‘m curious if there is, as I’d probably try to use it as an additional adjustment to the calculations I run.

 

[Nathan S]

I don’t follow RSCI. Is there any correlation between it and draft success? I‘m curious if there is, as I’d probably try to use it as an additional adjustment to the calculations I run.

Probably at least a loose correlation? I'm just making the point that virtually all of the top recruits struggled to some extent. Now that the dust has settled, only Wiseman, Edwards, and Okongwu are consensus lottery guys. And Wiseman and Edwards raised more questions than they answered since the start of the season. I dunno the stats on it, but it definitely feels unusual.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Probably at least a loose correlation? I'm just making the point that virtually all of the top recruits struggled to some extent. Now that the dust has settled, only Wiseman, Edwards, and Okongwu are consensus lottery guys. And Wiseman and Edwards raised more questions than they answered since the start of the season. I dunno the stats on it, but it definitely feels unusual.

Yeah, it is a weird year in that regard. There are no Zion's in this draft but I do think it is slightly better than advertised. Maybe it is an average to below average draft but it's not 2013.

It is one metric but 2019 had 13 guys who graded out as better than average prospects relative to their position. 2020 has 14 guys. There are caveats to that, certainly.......like Ja and Zion like players not being in the 2020 pool......but generally speaking, the talent past picks 1 and 2 looks (to me), to be as good or slightly better in the rest of the lottery.

I think the draft seems worse, from a Cavs perspective, because we have handcuffed ourselves by over drafting at a position group......and now we are tasked with looking at players that, quite frankly, aren't top 3-5 caliber players.

Reading the tea leaves @Randolphkeys has dropped, we should all say our prayers that Okungwu is who we select. He's really the only guy I feel comfortable drafting out of the mentioned players. I suppose I can talk myself in to the unknown of Wiseman, after enough cocktails.....but bad front offices paint themselves in to corners and we somehow managed to do that after only just two drafts.....which isn't the best of signs.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Just to underscore the above.......I went back and looked at 2013 for example.

That draft only had just 9 players who graded out as better than average prospects and 1 of them was Covington, who went un-drafted (ouch). 2020 has 14.

If you drop down to that next band of average or better, it had just 16 guys that met that criteria. 2020 has 21.

So those are pretty significant differences from just a pooling perspective.

It doesn't necessarily mean it will be a better draft but certainly there is a better chance it will be.

EDIT: In the last 10 years, it seems to most resemble 2017, from just a draft DNA perspective. Where it didn't have any truly elite players in it......but it had a solid group of average to better than average guys. That was the draft the produced Mitchell, Bam, Tatum, Fox, Collins and OG as guys outside the top 2 picks. To me, this draft seems similar to that.......again, just from a tiering perspective.

 

[Nathan S]

Just to underscore the above.......I went back and looked at 2013 for example.

That draft only had just 9 players who graded out as better than average prospects and 1 of them was Covington, who went un-drafted (ouch). 2020 has 14.

If you drop down to that next band of average or better, it had just 16 guys that met that criteria. 2020 has 21.

So those are pretty significant differences from just a pooling perspective.

It doesn't necessarily mean it will be a better draft but certainly there is a better chance it will be.

Yeah, I guess I should clarify, I'm talking mainly about the disappointing 1-and-done class. How many of the 14 are freshmen?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yeah, I guess I should clarify, I'm talking mainly about the disappointing 1-and-done class. How many of the 14 are freshmen?

I track median age just for curiosity sake.

2020 has a median age in that top group of 21.25. Comparing to other drafts:

2019 - 21.20
2018 - 20.50
2017 - 20.75
2016 - 20.88

So it skews slightly older but the median age of all VORP or better players is 21.16. So it seems like a negligible difference.

This also may be so far down in the weeds we are in the dirt.

Last year was a similar median and had older guys like Clarke, Thybulle and Windler in the group.......the first two look to be some of the better players (potentially) in that draft.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Avdija redeemed himself with a good game and a win. Maccabi advances to the semi final.
He had 22 pts, 10 rebs, 3 assists and 6 TOs. His 3pt shot from the top of the key still seem shaky to me, but from the corners he seems much better. Overall a good game.
His lateral quickness is actually good for his size. As well as his post defense and ability to contest from stand still. The issue is that I do not seem him as a shot blocker in the NBA. He mostly contests shots with verticality.

 

[Man Called X]

Avdija redeemed himself with a good game and a win. Maccabi advances to the semi final.
He had 22 pts, 10 rebs, 3 assists and 6 TOs. His 3pt shot from the top of the key still seem shaky to me, but from the corners he seems much better. Overall a good game.
His lateral quickness is actually good for his size. As well as his post defense and ability to contest from stand still. The issue is that I do not seem him as a shot blocker in the NBA. He mostly contests shots with verticality.

I prefer verticality over shot blocking numbers anyway.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I prefer verticality over shot blocking numbers anyway.

The issue is that I don't see that affecting players that much more athletic and bigger in the NBA. Like, he is not Andrei Kirilenko.

 

[Man Called X]

The issue is that I don't see that affecting players that much more athletic and bigger in the NBA. Like, he is not Andrei Kirilenko.

Defense is about positioning and effort more than it is stats. Is he making the correct rotations to defend the shot? Even if better athletes will get the shot off easier, is he making the correct reads to apply pressure?

Positioning > timing