2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

I had Carey #30 on the big board I posted, and that's one I'd immediately change on second thought. NBA is kinda moving away from players like him, and the poor assist:TO ratio gives me cold feet. But damn, with an awards haul like this in a weak draft...he deserves a look in the late lottery if not sooner.

I feel bad doing this......but can I interest you in a Jahlil Okaforish big?

Carey was a better scorer but their profiles are just very similar.......and big men who have largely negative GS/ADJ numbers are just the scrap of bones at the end of the road. The few success cases that exist are the hyper athletes like Deandre Jordan / John Collins......but even they were in the average category in that metric. That "blue" and below band.....i.e below average (light blue), bad (darker blue), poor (light purple), awful (dark purple).....or use whatever adjectives make sense just has a horrendous NBA success rate at the PF/C position.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Someone asked to clarify the above. Haliburton falls in what amounts to a subset of roughly the top 7-8% of prospects (31 of what will be around 440 ish after this year), when assessing the overall impact metrics I try to look at. Just for context, it is a weird total number because guys sometimes get injured and have no data or are in Euro leagues that don't reliably tracked possession based metrics, so it isn't just an exercise in total draft picks (x) number of drafts.

That area he lands in is two banded areas.......near elite (where Haliburton is) and elite (where the AD's, Currys, Durants, etc. of the world land). There is just so much historical certainty in that near elite tier and above. I get the argument on ceiling......maybe I buy that to some degree.....but the likelihood he is one of the 5 best players in this draft, just from a profile perspective, is really high. For me, that is why I really value a prospect like Haliburton......not only does he have a (historically) high floor......but he does the things that matter in the modern game.......he creates, he defends, he shoots and he has length.

I get the fit issue with our roster....and I'm not exactly sure what I would do......but it is going to be painful to pass on someone like Haliburton, mainly because of past drafting mistakes. Maybe we dodge this by picking 1, 2 or 3......and have a guaranteed chance at our pick of Wiseman, Okungwu, Deni....but if we are in the 5/6 range and those guys are gone.....and we pass on Haliburton for someone else, I think we are really going to regret it.

K, let's pick him.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Here's a very in-depth article on Deni Avdija that came out recently, does a great job analyzing his strengths and weaknesses in multiple game situations and talks about potential fit with the Cavs. It's a really good site for a number of player breakdowns building up to the draft.

Deni Avdija: International Treasure

Every draft has one, and the class of 2020 is no different. There is always a highly-regarded international prospect. There are always talking heads who

thepaintedlines.com

Avdija helped lead Maccabi Tel Aviv to a one point win Saturday scoring 10 with eight rebounds and three assists.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Here's a very in-depth article on Deni Avdija that came out recently, does a great job analyzing his strengths and weaknesses in multiple game situations and talks about potential fit with the Cavs. It's a really good site for a number of player breakdowns building up to the draft.

Deni Avdija: International Treasure

Every draft has one, and the class of 2020 is no different. There is always a highly-regarded international prospect. There are always talking heads who

thepaintedlines.com

Avdija helped lead Maccabi Tel Aviv to a one point win Saturday scoring 10 with eight rebounds and three assists.

Thanks.
Oof, that was an ugly game, and in no way, shape or form was Avdija good. To his credit, he gets double teamed on the perimeter when he gets the ball, and Hapoel were mostly playing zone defense. Going to look quite differently when he has some space to operate in. I think.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Thanks.
Oof, that was an ugly game, and in no way, shape or form was Avdija good. To his credit, he gets double teamed on the perimeter when he gets the ball, and Hapoel were mostly playing zone defense. Going to look quite differently when he has some space to operate in. I think.

Tel Aviv is resting the vets and going for a full youth movement with Yoosman and the Cohens, but it leaves Deni without a lot of offensive help.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Tel Aviv is resting the vets and going for a full youth movement with Yoosman and the Cohens, but it leaves Deni without a lot of offensive help.

Zoosman and Cohen were a part of the rotation before, and got plenty of time in the Israeli League.
The issue I see is that the foreign players just don't give a shit. They want to go home. So it's tough. Plus, they have zero playmakers on the team right now.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Zoosman and Cohen were a part of the rotation before, and got plenty of time in the Israeli League.
The issue I see is that the foreign players just don't give a shit. They want to go home. So it's tough. Plus, they have zero playmakers on the team right now.

Yeah those were the young guys they used to roll out with Deni, but now they don't use Casspi, Acy, Hunter, etc. It's a youth movement because they want those guys to take the reigns without vet leaders. Cohen is not stepping up as the lead guard, IMO.

BTW: Here is what the same site says about Haliburton:

Tyrese Haliburton: A Mind For The Game

Basketball intelligence has gotten lost in the sea that has become filled with rogue waves of athleticism, skill, and potential. Players can survive for a

thepaintedlines.com

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Yeah those were the young guys they used to roll out with Deni, but now they don't use Casspi, Acy, Hunter, etc. It's a youth movement because they want those guys to take the reigns without vet leaders. Cohen is not stepping up as the lead guard, IMO.

Oh, you mean Sandy Cohen lol.
Yeah, he is not a lead guard. He can score, but he needs playmaking. Hunter is playing. Acy was injured I believe, and so was Casspi. Tarik Black too.
They are missing Elijah Bryant who is a big part of their team, and he took secondary ball handling duties once both Nate Wolters and DiBartolomeo got injured. So yeah, Wilbekin is tehnically playing, but he is not a playmaker and he doesn't give a shit. They are really shallow with 0 primary or secondary playmakers.

 

[Nathan S]

I feel bad doing this......but can I interest you in a Jahlil Okaforish big?

Carey was a better scorer but their profiles are just very similar.......and big men who have largely negative GS/ADJ numbers are just the scrap of bones at the end of the road. The few success cases that exist are the hyper athletes like Deandre Jordan / John Collins......but even they were in the average category in that metric. That "blue" and below band.....i.e below average (light blue), bad (darker blue), poor (light purple), awful (dark purple).....or use whatever adjectives make sense just has a horrendous NBA success rate at the PF/C position.

Oh yeah, that's why I had him at #30 when I made my board. He's certainly not the type of prospect I typically hold in high regard. But he's arguably a little bit more promising than Jahlil, and while that kind of prospect is almost certainly a bad idea in the top-5, I think #30 was a bit too low. High teens to mid 20's would be reasonable, IMO.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Oh yeah, that's why I had him at #30 when I made my board. He's certainly not the type of prospect I typically hold in high regard. But he's arguably a little bit more promising than Jahlil, and while that kind of prospect is almost certainly a bad idea in the top-5, I think #30 was a bit too low. High teens to mid 20's would be reasonable, IMO.

Yep......that would roughly be my guess as well.

For me, he currently falls in a bucket of players that are in the 12-22 range.

12 seems high for him but mid first is about right.

I joke about Jah but there are scenarios where a player like him can be a successful pro. Carey seems to have the requisite toughness and fire on defense, even if he has some limitations there. And the ability to at least attempt 3's is a positive, relative to other big profiles like him.

 

[Nathan S]

Yep......that would roughly be my guess as well.

For me, he currently falls in a bucket of players that are in the 12-22 range.

12 seems high for him but mid first is about right.

I joke about Jah but there are scenarios where a player like him can be a successful pro. Carey seems to have the requisite toughness and fire on defense, even if he has some limitations there. And the ability to at least attempt 3's is a positive, relative to other big profiles like him.

Quite similar to Garza as well.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Quite similar to Garza as well.

Yes. We have both talked about him but here is that 3 player comparison, which I think I have not posted.

Garza has all the markers of an under valued scoring big who should be able to not suck enough on defense.

Garza is a seemingly better version of a Mike Muscala, just out of the profile of guys I have in my database. Muscala has had a long NBA career and has generally been a slightly positive VORP player. I think Garza can be a bit better than that though. I'm interested to see if he stays in the draft.....relative to his production and seemingly clear NBA role, he has gotten little buzz.

 

[Nathan S]

Yes. We have both talked about him but here is that 3 player comparison, which I think I have not posted.

Garza has all the markers of an under valued scoring big who should be able to not suck enough on defense.

Garza is a seemingly better version of a Mike Muscala, just out of the profile of guys I have in my database. Muscala has had a long NBA career and has generally been a slightly positive VORP player. I think Garza can be a bit better than that though. I'm interested to see if he stays in the draft.....relative to his production and seemingly clear NBA role, he has gotten little buzz.

I haven't brought Flynn up as much since he's not an obvious target for the Cavs, but he's another guy who's surprisingly undervalued IMO. He's an excellent shooter and passer, but in contrast to other elite upperclassman PGs (e.g. Winston, Pritchard) he's really worked hard on his defense, going from a liability as a freshman to conference DPOY as a senior. It's hard to imagine an outcome where he's not (at least) a solid bench PG.

 

[daytripper]

I see that Koby's contract has already been extended. Hopefully that gives him a little freedom to go ahead and just pick the best player on his board even if it's a guard such as Haliburton, Ball, etc.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Avdija has been baad.