2020 NBA Draft

Nathan S said:

Yup, that's pretty much exactly the thinking. I guess the key thing is that improvement is really unpredictable, beyond the general trend that younger players are more likely to make big improvements. Subjective assessments of work ethic probably have at least a little value too. But identifying improvement trends and projecting those trends into the future seems to be a fool's errand.

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And you'd have to include exposure to "better" coaching leading to improvements, and also take into account a player's team-mates. Some team-mates might mesh well and make you look better, others might minimize your contributions. All difficult if not impossible factors to measure.

The Human Q-Tip said:

Do the stats control for things like for how long they've been playing ball?

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Nope. I can imagine that how long a prospect has been playing basketball is another small but relevant correction. There are certainly cases of players who picked up the game very late developing very quickly in their early 20's after other guys have leveled off, but there are also plenty of counterexamples. Michael Olowokandi started playing at 18 and improved meteorically through 3 years of college, so many scouts felt he was poised to continue making huge improvements despite being older than other prospects. That obviously didn't happen. On the other end of the spectrum, Luka started playing when he was diapers, and many scouts felt that he was already a finished product going into the draft in spite of being only 19. Turns out he still had plenty of untapped potential. So who knows.

The Human Q-Tip said:

Do the stats control for things like for how long they've been playing ball?

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I don't know about control for.....but generally speaking, I don't see a ton of (significant) evidence, in the 1 and done era, that age matters a whole lot.

The median age of All-Stars, in the possession data base I have is 20.9 years old, on January 1 of their rookie year.

The median age of VORP or better guys was 21.21.......so only slightly older.

That is roughly a median age of a typical college sophomore.

I think it can matter if HS guys suddenly can come out, as so much maturation happens from 18-19........but the possession era, to me, has shown that you should not shy away from taking guys who are older, when they are all forced to have 1 post grad year.

I'mWithDan said:

I don't know about control for.....but generally speaking, I don't see a ton of (significant) evidence, in the 1 and done era, that age matters a whole lot.

The median age of All-Stars, in the possession data base I have is 20.9 years old, on January 1 of their rookie year.

The median age of VORP or better guys was 21.21.......so only slightly older.

That is roughly a median age of a typical college sophomore.

I think it can matter if HS guys suddenly can come out, as so much maturation happens from 18-19........but the possession era, to me, has shown that you should not shy away from taking guys who are older, when they are all forced to have 1 post grad year.

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The stat may be accurate, but I disagree with the conclusion that age doesn't matter a whole lot. On one hand, you have 4-year college guys like Duncan who were playing at an All-Star level from the moment they stepped on the court. On the other hand you have guys like Giannis who didn't even make the all-Rookie 1st team, but improved dramatically to become superstars. Their career peaks were/are similar, but their career trajectories were very different, and that can be accounted for by their different ages as rookies.

The Human Q-Tip said:

I thought the issue with him is that he couldn't even guard one?

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I genuinely believe that's getting blown out of proportion. I read an article discussing how "stiff" he looks at times but some believe that could be worked out with effective stretching measures going forward.

The guy is a high level athlete. The effort on defense is there, the guy has a very high motor. It isn't like we're afraid he can't guard because he's 6'2", or because he has a below average wingspan, or because he shows bad defensive effort... none of those are the case. The concerns are based off his "stiffness" at times and if that may effect his ability to guard stretch 4's all the way out to the perimeter.

I think he's a guy that is a MUST PICK if he slides to 5... and it wouldn't shock me one bit if Golden State decides to take him #2 (although I still think GS trades that pick).

CavsFan07 said:

I genuinely believe that's getting blown out of proportion. I read an article discussing how "stiff" he looks at times but some believe that could be worked out with effective stretching measures going forward.

The guy is a high level athlete. The effort on defense is there, the guy has a very high motor. It isn't like we're afraid he can't guard because he's 6'2", or because he has a below average wingspan, or because he shows bad defensive effort... none of those are the case. The concerns are based off his "stiffness" at times and if that may effect his ability to guard stretch 4's all the way out to the perimeter.

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I'll just say that being able to move quickly laterally is just as much a raw athletic ability as is running fast, or jumping high. Some guys just have much quicker feet/legs than othes, and that has a major impact on defensive ability.

Toppin's defense is an issue, but my bigger issue with him is that I'm not sure he's as great offensively as people think.

Yeah, he shot 39% from 3, but he averaged just 1 make per game, almost all of his makes were catch-and-shoot, and he shot a modest 70% from the line. Taken together, this suggests that he'll just be an adequate shooter at the NBA level.

Similarly, 2.2 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game isn't bad for a big wing, but it's not great either. He had the worst assist:TO numbers out of all of Dayton's starters.

The only thing he really excelled at was finishing at the rim. That's it. Barring dramatic improvements, that's the only thing he appears likely to do at an above-average level in the NBA. So you bet on him being a top-5 slasher/finisher in the league, and cross your fingers and hope he manages to be average at everything else. That's the only way he lives up to being a top-5 pick.

I have unreliable information that Cassius Stanley is being considered in the top 5.

Dunno how this was calculated. Just spamming this as confirmation bias. I do think this is what makes him have star potential. Looking at his assists, they are not player, but read and react, which is exactly what I want.

Nathan S said:

The stat may be accurate, but I disagree with the conclusion that age doesn't matter a whole lot. On one hand, you have 4-year college guys like Duncan who were playing at an All-Star level from the moment they stepped on the court. On the other hand you have guys like Giannis who didn't even make the all-Rookie 1st team, but improved dramatically to become superstars. Their career peaks were/are similar, but their career trajectories were very different, and that can be accounted for by their different ages as rookies.

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Giannis entered the NBA as a high school player would.......which was my qualifier. I'm speaking to 1 and done era, where guys are typically forced to play one year of college.

Giannis turned 19 in December of his rookie year. That is insanely young. So his freshman year of college was effectively played in the NBA. Not many guys are prepared for that.

I honestly can't think of an american possession era player that entered the NBA as raw as Giannis and turned in to an actual superstar. If you run through the list....on how these guys ranked in my calculation

Kawhi - was a top 10 rated SF in the possession era
PG- was a top 10 rated SF in the possession era
Durant - #2 overall player across the possession era
Steph - #3 overall player across the possession era
AD - #1 overall player across the possession era
Harden - #44 overall player across the possession era
Embiid - #18 overall player across the possession era
Russ - Maybe the case here? He was raw and young
Lillard - #27 overall player across the possession era
Kyrie - #15 overall player across the possession era in small sample

Ironically, the best case of an American / college player developing in to a super star type unexpectedly might be Jimmy Butler, who was 22.25 in January of his rookie year.

I'm just pointing out that Russ' are pretty uncommon.......and I somewhat think that it is a myth that guys have "high ceilings". Just the overwhelming data, to me, just shows guys who go on to be good players show significant analytical profiles prior to doing so. It is a very rare case that a guy will profile like Russ and then go on to be an MVP. I have stated before athletic guard types are a bit of a blind spot in the stuff I calculate but the evidence is there. The star players overwhelmingly appear in the top 10-11% of analytical profiles. Which would seem to imply, to me, that "high ceiling" is a bit of urban legend in some respects. At least when we are talking stars.......and thus the reason why guys like Haliburton and Okongwu should have more value than they do......because guys being taken ahead of them who are "ceiling" players do not, historically, turn in to star players.

I'mWithDan said:

Giannis entered the NBA as a high school player would.......which was my qualifier. I'm speaking to 1 and done era, where guys are typically forced to play one year of college.

Giannis turned 19 in December of his rookie year. That is insanely young. So his freshman year of college was effectively played in the NBA. Not many guys are prepared for that.

I honestly can't think of an american possession era player that entered the NBA as raw as Giannis and turned in to an actual superstar. If you run through the list....on how these guys ranked in my calculation

Kawhi - was a top 10 rated SF in the possession era
PG- was a top 10 rated SF in the possession era
Durant - #2 overall player across the possession era
Steph - #3 overall player across the possession era
AD - #1 overall player across the possession era
Harden - #44 overall player across the possession era
Embiid - #18 overall player across the possession era
Russ - Maybe the case here? He was raw and young
Lillard - #27 overall player across the possession era
Kyrie - #15 overall player across the possession era in small sample

Ironically, the best case of an American / college player developing in to a super star type might be Jimmy Butler, who was 22.25 in January of his rookie year.

I'm just pointing out that Russ' are pretty uncommon.......and I somewhat think that it is a myth that guys have "high ceilings". Just the overwhelming data, to me, just shows guys who go on to be good players show significant analytical profiles prior to doing so. It is a very rare case that a guy will profile like Russ and then go on to be an MVP. I have stated before athletic guard types are a bit of a blind spot in the stuff I calculate but the evidence is there. The star players overwhelmingly appear in the top 10-11% of analytical profiles. Which would seem to imply, to me, that "high ceiling" is a bit of urban legend in some respects. At least when we are talking stars.......and thus the reason why guys like Haliburton and Okongwu should have more value than they do......because guys being taken ahead of them who are "ceiling" players do not, historically, turn in to star players.

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Agree that Giannis was an extreme case, but the point that younger prospects improve more, on average, than older prospects in the NBA is true in general. It's easy to find 22/23 year old rookies who made the All-Rookie first team and then flatlined from there, for instance. It's also easy to find 19/20 year old rookies who missed the All-Rookie first team but went on to be superstars. Individual players are unpredictable, but with a large sample size it's easy to show that younger prospects, on average, improve more from when they're drafted to their peak than older prospects.

Of course, you have to weigh youth against production. If there's a big gap in production, then sure, the player who's a year or two older could easily be the better prospect and the better pro. And to be completely clear, I'm strongly against the (largely pseudo-) science of judging "ceiling" based on factors other than proven impact and age. Okongwu is obviously a high-ceiling guy, in my opinion, based on those two simple factors.

You can have all the advanced metrics in the world, but if that player doesn't pass the eye test, those stats are worthless. There are alot of things that advanced stats can't meassure, like what roles is the player gonna have at the next level.

I'm not saying they're completely worthless, but you have to watch & see these guys play. Roster construction is far more important. Advanced stats don't like Achiuwa, but what they fail to tell you is that he has elite size & mobility for a combo forward.

Same goes for Azubuike. You can't teach that length. Azubuike has lottery potential. Advanced metrics don't tell you that he projects as an elite rim protector, for instance.

Toppin is a terrible fit because he can’t defend, he’s older and wouldn’t start for ages because Kevin Love is here. Makes no sense.

JJ_PR said:

You can have all the advanced metrics in the world, but if that player doesn't pass the eye test, those stats are worthless. There are alot of things that advanced stats can't meassure, like what roles is the player gonna have at the next level.

I'm not saying they're completely worthless, but you have to watch & see these guys play. Roster construction is far more important. Advanced stats don't like Achiuwa, but what they fail to tell you is that he has elite size & mobility for a combo forward.

Same goes for Azubuike. You can't teach that length. Azubuike has lottery potential. Advanced metrics don't tell you that he projects as an elite rim protector, for instance.

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At least we now know what David Kahn is up to.

Azubuike has the second highest BLK/100 number is this class......and that is only if you want to count Wiseman's sample of 3 games.

His number isn't elite but it is strange to make a statement about advanced metrics not saying something when on a possession basis, he blocks the most shots.

cabs said:

Toppin is a terrible fit because he can’t defend, he’s older and wouldn’t start for ages because Kevin Love is here. Makes no sense.

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We need defense. Toppin is the opposite of what we need.