Not sure how "realistically projectable" Toppin's scoring is. He was very efficient, but also only faced the 105th-strongest defensive schedule in the NCAA. With Williams, you could point to games like 32 points vs Duke in the NCAA tournament, or 27 points vs Kansas. With Toppin, there are no such statement games to point to. You just have to pray that very efficient scoring against hopelessly overmatched minor conference foes will translate.I'm not a huge Toppin fan but calling him Derrick Williams is a bit unfair to me.
They have some key differences in their profiles......
1. Williams had an insanely inflated scoring efficiency number that was a direct result of a FTR that was not sustainable. Toppin is an efficient scorer with what looks like a more realistically projectable mix.
2. Williams was flagged in my stuff as a significantly worse player less scoring. Toppin is -2.24, which is concerning but not alarming. Williams was -4.08. The very discernable cliff is around the -3.25/-3.50 mark. There are only 10 players in the possession era that fell below that non scoring threshold and were VORP or better players.....a success rate of around 11-12%........guys above that mark turned in to VORP or better players at about 2x the rate 21-23%. So Toppin isn't a world beater less scoring but he is in a far better bucket than Williams was.
Toppin profiles as kind of a more efficient version, plus scoring version of Kyle Kuzma.....which would be a pretty useful player to me.
I don't necessarily think he's a good fit for the Cavs but I'd have far more confidence in Toppin panning out than he becoming a D-Will esque flame out.