2020 NBA Draft

[Cavatt]

I don't hate Vassell, but the idea that we should ignore ceiling and look for a solid defensive roleplayer at #5 is a wild one that I've rarely heard.

I thought that was Imwithdans argument to take Otto Porter in 2013?

 

[Nathan S]

Adding multi-year data for the top prospects, and I want to address an interesting question here that I've seen argued both ways. Say there are two prospects, both sophomores, who were equally good this season. They differ only in that one of them also played really well as a freshman, while the other was significantly worse as a freshman. Is the first one better, on the grounds that he was more consistently good over his 2-year career? Or is the second one better, in that he showed significant improvement?

Stats give us an unambiguous answer here: the prospect who was consistently good in college is more likely to succeed than the prospect who improved suddenly in his last college season.

Some quick notes so far:

-Avdija goes from -0.3 to +0.8. Biggest factor there is that he had a much better offensive rebound rate last season, suggesting that his poor offensive rebound rate this season may have been a fluke.

-Vassell goes from +0.9 to +1.9. He was extremely efficient in limited minutes last season.

-Maledon goes from +1.0 to +1.6. He's been consistently solid in some of Europe's strongest leagues over the last two seasons.

-Queen jumps all the way from +1.1 to +2.5. Take it with a grain of salt because he played relatively few minutes last season, but his per-minute stats were off the charts.

-Flynn falls from 2.2 to 0.6. He was pretty average for two years at Washington State before transferring.

-Perry falls from 1.4 to 0.7. He was extremely limited offensively last year before expanding his game this year.

-Mason Jones falls from 0.9 to 0.2. Like Perry, he suddenly took off offensively after being average last year.

-Desmond Bane falls from -0.1 to -1.2. His assist and 3-point rates this year were way above his averages from the previous 3 years.

 

[JJ_PR]

My favorite guys from this draft for the Cavs are:
- James Wiseman: I've written alot about Wiseman. He gives us something we don't have, a rim protector.
- Precious Achiuwa: He's got alot of defensive potential. I'd trade the Bucks pick for him.
- Saddiq Bey: He's a very smooth offensive player with great size & projects as a good defender as well.
- Udoka Azubuike: You can't teach size.
- Mamadi Diakite: Diakite is a senior out of Virginia. He's got intruguing size for a big, he's similar to Okongwu in alot of ways.
- Ty-Shon Alexander: You need a combo guard like Alexander off the bench.
- Jay Scrubb: Has all the makings of a solid backup.

 

[Man Called X]

My favorite guys from this draft for the Cavs are:
- James Wiseman: I've written alot about Wiseman. He gives us something we don't have, a rim protector.
- Precious Achiuwa: He's got alot of defensive potential. I'd trade the Bucks pick for him.
- Saddiq Bey: He's a very smooth offensive player with great size & projects as a good defender as well.
- Udoka Azubuike: You can't teach size.
- Mamadi Diakite: Diakite is a senior out of Virginia. He's got intruguing size for a big, he's similar to Okongwu in alot of ways.
- Ty-Shon Alexander: You need a combo guard like Alexander off the bench.
- Jay Scrubb: Has all the makings of a solid backup.

Saddiq Bey screams G-League All Star. We're not getting into all the hot takes on the bigs.

As for Scrubb, his name literally tells you his ceiling.

 

[adam81king]

My favorite guys from this draft for the Cavs are:
- James Wiseman: I've written alot about Wiseman. He gives us something we don't have, a rim protector.
- Precious Achiuwa: He's got alot of defensive potential. I'd trade the Bucks pick for him.
- Saddiq Bey: He's a very smooth offensive player with great size & projects as a good defender as well.
- Udoka Azubuike: You can't teach size.
- Mamadi Diakite: Diakite is a senior out of Virginia. He's got intruguing size for a big, he's similar to Okongwu in alot of ways.
- Ty-Shon Alexander: You need a combo guard like Alexander off the bench.
- Jay Scrubb: Has all the makings of a solid backup.

You're gonna be mighty disappointed on draft night...

 

[J_J]

If we get a 2nd round pick, I’d draft Killian Tillie from Gonzaga. I’ve watched a lot of film of him and there are role players like him fit in this NBA.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I thought that was Imwithdans argument to take Otto Porter in 2013?

My argument was merely pointing out that selecting players that land above certain analytical thresholds lead to better outcomes. I have lots and lots of data that supports the bucketing method.

Where teams get in to trouble is where they start making theoretical arguments as to why they should draft someone over another player that looks far more likely to succeed from a profile standpoint. Do I think Porter should have went #1? No. But that’s not the point. The point I was making was you literally would have been better off selecting almost anyone from that bucketed list of players than you were taking Bennett.....who was a “ceiling” guy. Too often that is a reason for taking a player who is unlikely or less likely to succeed.

 

[roozy]

I've been watching tape on Vassell, and he just looks special defensively. Like the guy earlier said he is one of the best team defenders I've seen coming out of college. Now offensively he may begin like a 3&D wing but whos to say he doesn't develop into a Khris Middleton type? His wingspan is long and he has a high release point so he can virtually shoot over anyone. Just because he isn't flashy offensively doesn't mean he can't be an allstar.

 

[cabs]

If Paul Reed slipped to the second round I could see us buying or trading for a pick to get him, I thought he'd be in lottery consideration

 

[CavsFan07]

A few months ago I would have been happy with Obi Toppin at #3 or #4 pick... now that we got #5 and there's rumors he's dropped a bit, I'd be ecstatic with him at #5.

I seem to be in the minority but I feel like we've over thinking this guy a bit. High energy, can guard a few different positions, 39% from 3pt, 20 ppg.. PLENTY of athleticism..

I think the top 3 goes Edwards, Wiseman, Ball... all we need is a guy like Hayes or Avdija to go #4 and our guy is sitting right there for the taking.

 

[MikeOC33]

Stats give us an unambiguous answer here: the prospect who was consistently good in college is more likely to succeed than the prospect who improved suddenly in his last college season.

That is interesting and brings in another often discussed topic about high ceiling vs high floor players. From your example you'd think the first player (more consistent player) would have the higher floor, so more likely to at least not fail, and maybe excel.

The second guy, the one who improved in his 2nd year, that would be the guy people say has the higher ceiling... projecting (without basis in most cases) that he will continue to arc up. So maybe he would continue to improve...or maybe he would regress to his freshman year level and be considered a bust... if not a bust, maybe just busty.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

A few months ago I would have been happy with Obi Toppin at #3 or #4 pick... now that we got #5 and there's rumors he's dropped a bit, I'd be ecstatic with him at #5.

I seem to be in the minority but I feel like we've over thinking this guy a bit. High energy, can guard a few different positions, 39% from 3pt, 20 ppg.. PLENTY of athleticism..

I think the top 3 goes Edwards, Wiseman, Ball... all we need is a guy like Hayes or Avdija to go #4 and our guy is sitting right there for the taking.

What position can he guard in the NBA effectively?

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I seem to be in the minority but I feel like we've over thinking this guy a bit. High energy, can guard a few different positions, 39% from 3pt, 20 ppg.. PLENTY of athleticism....

I thought the issue with him is that he couldn't even guard one?

 

[Nathan S]

That is interesting and brings in another often discussed topic about high ceiling vs high floor players. From your example you'd think the first player (more consistent player) would have the higher floor, so more likely to at least not fail, and maybe excel.

The second guy, the one who improved in his 2nd year, that would be the guy people say has the higher ceiling... projecting (without basis in most cases) that he will continue to arc up. So maybe he would continue to improve...or maybe he would regress to his freshman year level and be considered a bust... if not a bust, maybe just busty.

Yup, that's pretty much exactly the thinking. I guess the key thing is that improvement is really unpredictable, beyond the general trend that younger players are more likely to make big improvements. Subjective assessments of work ethic probably have at least a little value too. But identifying improvement trends and projecting those trends into the future seems to be a fool's errand.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yup, that's pretty much exactly the thinking. I guess the key thing is that improvement is really unpredictable, beyond the general trend that younger players are more likely to make big improvements. Subjective assessments of work ethic probably have at least a little value too. But identifying improvement trends and projecting those trends into the future seems to be a fool's errand.

Do the stats control for things like for how long they've been playing ball?