2020 NBA Draft

[I'mWithDan]

He's tall, but is the size functional? 8.3 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per 100 are SG numbers, not SF numbers (e.g. compare to 12.6 boards, 2.0 blocks per 100 for Tatum). And it's not like Villanova had hulking bigs hoovering up all the boards either. He seems Cedi Osman-y, where he has prototypical wing measurables, but in reality he plays more like a tall SG than a true wing.

Blocks seem pretty random for wing prospects.......like for example, Kawhi was an other world defender in college and only averaged 1.1 per 100. Simmons was 1.3. Those are two of the best NBA defenders. Paul George was 1.5.......better but not even good, relative to the entire prospect pool. Jabari Parker averaged 2.5. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you watch Bey's defensive highlights, the rebounding thing seems to be something that is easy to reconcile. Villanova employed him on the perimeter to hound smaller players. So he was more often than not, challenging on closeouts or ball handlers, taking him out of defensive rebounding position. He looks like a pretty competitive guy on the glass when he is inside, so it may just be an instance where his specific role is creating the appearance of a weakness, where there maybe is not one.

Below shows a lot of why the rebounding number may be deceiving, he's out in space a lot on the perimeter.......but it is possible that is more anecdotal.

 

[Randolphkeys]

HoopsHype updated their aggregate mock; some notable changes since July:

Lottery: Toppin and Avdija jump ahead of Okongwu, who falls to 6th. Haliburton rises to 7th, swapping with Hayes who falls to 9th. Nesmith and Patrick Williams both move up 2 spots, to 11th and 12th respectively, and Saddiq Bey rises all the way from 19th to 13th. Achiuwa slides a couple spots to 14th, and Anthony slips out of the lottery from 11th to 15th.

First round: Jalen Smith rises from 25th to 20th, and Pokusevski rises from 28th to 22nd. Three players rise into the top-30: Tyrell Terry going from 32nd to 23rd, Leandro Bolmaro going from 31st to 25th, and Desmond Bane going all the way from 47th to 29th. Mannion slides 5 spots to 28th, Carey, Nnaji, and Dotson slip out of the first round to 32nd, 34th, and 36th respectively.

Second round: Malachi Flynn jumps 11 spots to 33rd, and Tillman jumps 14 spots to 35th. Isaiah Joe appears at 44th and Petrusev appears at 53rd after being unranked. Sam Merrill jumps from 80th to 56th. Cassius Stanley slides from 33rd to 41st, Reed slides from 37th to 45th, Quickley slides from 38th to 47th, and Perry slides from 40th to 50th.

I updated my board to account for these changes, and also to add a few more guys I ran my draft rater on (all in Tier 5).

Since you have now made a third draft, can you finally cut back to one spot for Nesmith? Thanks.

 

[Nathan S]

Since you have now made a third draft, can you finally cut back to one spot for Nesmith? Thanks.

Literally got lost in the shuffle. Thanks!

Blocks seem pretty random for wing prospects.......like for example, Kawhi was an other world defender in college and only averaged 1.1 per 100. Simmons was 1.3. Those are two of the best NBA defenders. Paul George was 1.5.......better but not even good, relative to the entire prospect pool. Jabari Parker averaged 2.5. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you watch Bey's defensive highlights, the rebounding thing seems to be something that is easy to reconcile. Villanova employed him on the perimeter to hound smaller players. So he was more often than not, challenging on closeouts or ball handlers, taking him out of defensive rebounding position. He looks like a pretty competitive guy on the glass when he is inside, so it may just be an instance where his specific role is creating the appearance of a weakness, where there maybe is not one.

Below shows a lot of why the rebounding number may be deceiving, he's out in space a lot on the perimeter.......but it is possible that is more anecdotal.

Each stat individually isn't necessarily a red flag...it's the combination that's alarming. If he was out on the perimeter, why did he have the 2nd-lowest steal rate on the team? Seems like a guy who was just adequate defensively at the college level, and 9 times out of 10 that translates to below-average in the NBA.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Each stat individually isn't necessarily a red flag...it's the combination that's alarming. If he was out on the perimeter, why did he have the 2nd-lowest steal rate on the team? Seems like a guy who was just adequate defensively at the college level, and 9 times out of 10 that translates to below-average in the NBA.

Yeah, I don't disagree with that. Bey seems more like a guy who has nice length, moves well and competes. With his shooting, if he's an average defender, you can seen him as a quality wing starter.

It would be interesting to see his defensive positioning freshman year vs soph. His rebound and steal rate were both better as a freshman (10.6/1.8)....and his offensive rebound % was almost twice what it was this year. My guess is he played more 4 last year and more 3 this. But it is just a guess based on the statistical differences.

 

[Nathan S]

Also surprised at the lack of traction for Reed. My draft rater finds him only slightly worse than Clarke last year, and Clarke's looking like the best value pick of the 2019 draft so far. Hard to believe there are 30+ players better than him in this draft.

 

[BankShot]

Love Paul Reed, some of you guys brought him up on here so I went looking, ended up watching every DePaul game I could find.

Best way to describe him is to picture if Delly was 6'9", long and highly athletic. About as close to a Rodman profile as you'll find. Very limited offensively, jumper is real ugly but somehow occasionally goes in.

I want okungwu at #5, but if we end up taking one of the wings, I want a late 1st round pick to use on Reed, just so fun to watch him fly around the court.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Love Paul Reed, some of you guys brought him up on here so I went looking, ended up watching every DePaul game I could find.

Best way to describe him is to picture if Delly was 6'9", long and highly athletic. About as close to a Rodman profile as you'll find. Very limited offensively, jumper is real ugly but somehow occasionally goes in.

I want okungwu at #5, but if we end up taking one of the wings, I want a late 1st round pick to use on Reed, just so fun to watch him fly around the court.

I would love to buy back into the very late first or early second and take advantage of a few teams that are cash-strapped or just unprepared to grab Reed. He is definitely one of those players who can have a great 10-12 year role in the league.

 

[Nathan S]

Also confused as to how Tre Jones continues to languish in the second round of some mocks. Clear leader on a great team, conference POY and DPOY, 20 years old, and he even fixed his 3-point shot. What does he have to do to get some love? Is there any way he doesn't develop into a great roleplayer, at a minimum?

 

[Vipra]

@Nathan S , @I'mWithDan , and others who have their own draft boards:

Do you see any surprises pop up in the top 5 of your board that is considered outside of the top 10 in the consensus mock draft [<-- click]assembled by NBA.com?

 

[WorldFreeB]

I've read all these glowing reports about Toppin's offensive skills and how he could be a guy you pencil in for 15-20 ppg every night.
Seen him compared to Amare. Why is his defense so bad? How bad is his defense? Is there any hope that it can get better? He seems
to have athleticism. Would any of you draftniks consider taking him at 5?

 

[Los216]

Also confused as to how Tre Jones continues to languish in the second round of some mocks. Clear leader on a great team, conference POY and DPOY, 20 years old, and he even fixed his 3-point shot. What does he have to do to get some love? Is there any way he doesn't develop into a great roleplayer, at a minimum?

Still sounds like a late first early second for him though doesn't it?

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S , @I'mWithDan , and others who have their own draft boards:

Do you see any surprises pop up in the top 5 of your board that is considered outside of the top 10 in the consensus mock draft [<-- click]assembled by NBA.com?

Not really. Pokusevski would be the closest, but that's obviously not a very high-confidence pick. Several underrated (IMO) roleplayers populate the back half of my lottery (Green, Hampton, Flynn, Jones, Hinton).

 

[Nathan S]

Still sounds like a late first early second for him though doesn't it?

Maybe? ESPN has him getting drafted behind guys like Winston and Dotson, which is just crazy to me.

 

[daytripper]

I would love to buy back into the very late first or early second and take advantage of a few teams that are cash-strapped or just unprepared to grab Reed. He is definitely one of those players who can have a great 10-12 year role in the league.

I really like Reed too as an early 2nd round pick..he's going to be a steal. Too bad the Cavs don't have their 2nd this year but they have stockpiled some in 2022-3 due to trades. Those are supposed to be good drafts but I'd deal one if it means getting Reed now. Dan's pocketbook always helps in these situations too.

 

[Los216]

Maybe? ESPN has him getting drafted behind guys like Winston and Dotson, which is just crazy to me.

It depends on the teams picking there. Mostly contenders and they would need to have minutes available for a PG.