Hitting

Out of the Rafters at the Q said:

I disagree with you placing extra weight on each game.

That would be true if the playoff situation were the same--but it isn't. The Indians are basically a walk-in for the playoffs, so the games carry much less weight than they normally would, unless you want to argue that seeding is significant--which I don't believe it is.

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I was going to make the same point. With how many teams are getting into the playoffs, it is even more important to find a way for players to get hot or in the best place for the playoffs. If anything with how well our pitching staff is playing, we have the ability to play around with the outfield to try and find the best fit. Every team, has to start with a 3 game series. I think pitching is going to be huge in that round, and I love our odds with pitching staff. Barring any trades, a team is going to have to win 2 out of 3 against us, which means they have to beat 2 of Bieber, Clevinger, Civale/Plesac. You then have Carrasco in the bullpen. I love those odds.

Also on a side note, we still have the 4th best record in the AL, which gives us 3 homes games. We are only 2.5 games out and the offense still has not woke up. I feel pretty good about where we are at right now.

Derek said:

In a shortened season like this, it's naturally going to lead to veterans getting a much longer leash than rookies, and here's why:

Veterans have much longer track records. We know who they are. Carlos Santana is slashing .212/.392/.323 this year, but he's a .250/.368/.447 guy for his career, so we can reasonably expect him to perform at that level over the next 30 games rather than the stat line he's posted over the most recent 30 games. It's the same reason guys don't get benched in the playoffs when they go 0-12 in games 1-3 of a series. Recent performance has proven to be a poor indicator of future performance compared to career performance.

For rookies, they don't have a track record. To get time in a season like this, they have to hit the ground running and produce. It's not because the managers think they suck, it's because they're an unknown, and they don't feel they have time to find out what they are.

I wouldn't mind seeing Daniel Johnson get at-bats over Freeman and Allen, but Allen has also been passable against righties throughout his career while Johnson is simply an unknown quantity, who didn't capitalize on his limited opportunities.

To be clear, just because we're only playing 60 games instead of 162 doesn't make each game actually 2.7x more valuable, especially not regarding sample size or predicting future, but the limited time certainly comes into play when you're evaluating unknowns.

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Perfectly logical Derek, but we're not exactly talking about well established veterans with historic track records here. We're talking about guys like Allen, DeShields, Zimmer, Freeman, and Mercado. Nobody is pining for Johnson to replace Naquin. At least I hope not because that would be stupid. We all hoped Zimmer would find the promise he once provided, but nada. We all hoped that Mercado would carry his 2019 success into this season, but that didn't happen and he got sent to the dreaded alternate sight. Allen has always been a good 4th OF option, nothing more. All I know is that we need some offense from either LF or CF, and preferably both.

CDAV45 said:

Perfectly logical Derek, but we're not exactly talking about well established veterans with historic track records here. We're talking about guys like Allen, DeShields, Zimmer, Freeman, and Mercado. Nobody is pining for Johnson to replace Naquin. At least I hope not because that would be stupid. We all hoped Zimmer would find the promise he once provided, but nada. We all hoped that Mercado would carry his 2019 success into this season, but that didn't happen and he got sent to the dreaded alternate sight. Allen has always been a good 4th OF option, nothing more. All I know is that we need some offense from either LF or CF, and preferably both.

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I was talking about DeShields, Allen, and Domingo, who despite being underwhelming, at least have enough of a track record (DeShields against lefties. Allen against righties, Domingo overall) of being passable MLB hitters.

I think we'd agree Allen is the worst of the bunch, and while he's currently hitting .190/.217/.381, you can reasonably expect him to perform closer to .254/.313/.376 when he steps to the plate against a righty. With Daniel Johnson, you just don't know, and the team doesn't seem interested in spending a lot of time in a shortened season trying to find out. He had a small opportunity and didn't seize it. I'm not claiming it's correct or incorrect, but I understand the logic.

The Indians have gone 9-3 over their last 12 games, averaging 5.17 runs per game. That 5.17 figure would rank 5th in baseball had they done it the entire season. The question is whether they can maintain that over the next 29 games, or at least something close. Nine of those games were against Detroit and Pittsburgh so I don't expect them to continue to average over five runs per game. But they did score 12 in three games against the Twins after only scoring four in four games in the first series. I'm seeing improvement in the offense and with Clevinger back and Plesac available to return if needed it's all systems go.

After this series seven of the next 10 games are against the 12-19 Royals, who have lost 7 of their last 10. The other three are againsts the 13-17 Brewers, who have also lost 7 of 10.

Time to kick this thing into overdrive.

Franmil Reyes is second in the A.L. in batting average at .336. Last year he finished at .249.

His OBP has increased from .310 to .388 and his slugging percentage has increased from .512 to .575.

He is really having a breakout season, ranking 22nd in OPS.

Cleveland improved to 19-2 when scoring at least four runs.

Unfortunately they lead the majors in games where they scored two runs or less with 18. That makes 45% of their games where they were not able to score three runs.

Hitting is the key for this team.

I figured some where talking about moving Santana in the lineup, I have a hunch the management is going to keep the top 5 guys exactly the same. The production from the lineup overall has been better of late and I dont see a way to change the lineup to where moving Santana would actually help us more. I think the top 5 is staying put.

Three runs in the last 33 innings. Almost got no-hit by a rookie. Wow.

Naylor is 5-for-30 (.166). All five hits were singles. He's walked one time this year in 64 PA's. Reyes is in a slump and Naquin is also struggling. None of the catchers can hit .200. The outfielders as a whole are still under .200.

Terry Pluto had this on Jose Ramirez:

From the start of the 2016 season through the .2018 All-Star break, Ramirez was a .312 hitter (.470-for-1,508). Since the 2018 All-Star break, he is a .232 hitter (200-for-861)….he’s not been the same disciplined hitter in the last two years. He seems more power-centered. He’s had some injuries.

Lindor also seems more interested in power. In an interview yesterday about moving back to hitting leadoff Lindor was defensive about his performance in the #3 position, pointing out that people didn't think he could hit home runs but then he hit 30+ three years in a row.

“In 162 games I probably would have driven in 90-100,” Lindor said. “Maybe the stats don’t say I’m on pace to do that, but the stats didn’t say I was going to hit 30 home runs in the big leagues. I’ve done it three times already.”

Three times already. Obviously he's really proud of that.

My belief is that both Hosey and Frankie have fallen in love with the long ball. Hosey's infield pop-up rate this year is more than double his career average. The guy who hit .312 for 2.5 years is hitting .245. I have to believe part of that is due to trying too hard to hit home runs. He's over swinging and popping it up.

IMO both Lindor and Hosey should forget about home runs and try to model themselves after hitters like Michael Brantley and Joe Mauer. Be patient, wait for a good pitch, and try to hit a line drive wherever the ball is pitched. Let the home runs come by accident, like when they get out in front and slightly under a breaking ball. If they did that they'd both be hitting over .300 like they've done in the past before they fell in love with the long ball.

I don't know what to say about Santana. His average dropped from .281 to .195 since last year. His hard hit percentage is down 12 per cent from 44% to 32%. His infield fly percentage is up from 9% to 12% and his HR/FB percentage has dropped from 19.3% to 10.2%. Almost 50% fewer fly balls are going out this year. He's obviously getting under a lot more balls since he's hitting more pop-ups and more fly outs with fewer home runs.

Last year Santana hit 34 home runs. At his current pace he would hit 19 this year if he got the same number of at-bats. So his home run production is down 44%. Either his bat is slowing down at age 34 or he's trying too hard to hit the long ball and it's making his swing too long, just like Lindor and Hosey.

Pluto said these three underachievers haven't gotten as much criticism as they deserve. I agree. Their performances have been embarrassing. Lindor's batting average is OK but his .133 with RISP is nothing short of an embarrassment, especially for a player of his bat talent. These guys are professional hitters and they need to figure out what adjustments they need to make to get themselves back on track. It's a short season and the playoffs are around the corner. The time to do something is now.

Last night Lindor hit a single to center. The STO announcers were gushing about it because he stayed balanced, didn't lunge at the pitch, and used a nice controlled swing to line the ball up the middle. Maybe that's a start.

All these guys have a lot of pride and are very competitive. I have faith they will make the necessary adjustments even if it means sacrificing personal goals (like a 40 HR season, Frankie and Jose?). They can't be happy putting up numbers like this and having guys like Romo chirping at you after he makes you pop up an 86 mph fastball.

Why isn’t there talk of/heat on our virtually invisible hitting coach?

There’s also no accountability for our 1-4 hitters. They play every day unless they have a broken leg. Why adjust your approach at the plate if it doesn’t matter, you’re still gonna be in there every day.

Sorry if this is a stupid question but it seems like the organization has struggled to develop hitters over the past 3 or so years. With hardly any of the prospects, they've brought up having much in the way of consistent success despite being highly rated at one time or another. Is there a concrete reason/reasons for this? Has it just been bad luck, is our minor league system just not as good at developing hitters as it is with pitchers? Is it the major league hitting coach that is to blame?

That is most certainly not a stupid question, dshucks. I’m afraid I have no answer for you but I think that others might.

Dshuks said:

Sorry if this is a stupid question but it seems like the organization has struggled to develop hitters over the past 3 or so years. With hardly any of the prospects, they've brought up having much in the way of consistent success despite being highly rated at one time or another. Is there a concrete reason/reasons for this? Has it just been bad luck, is our minor league system just not as good at developing hitters as it is with pitchers? Is it the major league hitting coach that is to blame?

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@BimboColesHair is the best person to ask for this.

Honestly I think its the mix of a pitching first organization plus bad luck. We have been doing a lot of if 1A is a pitcher and 1B is a hitter, we go pitcher it feels like. Hence why i wanted a college bat in the draft and hence why i was happy we got Miller in the Clev trade.

Also i am thinking its because we dont have the right veteran leadership when it comes to the position players. We dont have that Napoli or Giambi with just the age experience you could say. We dont have someone like Brantley who could lead hitting by example and could help out the younger hitters.

With the pitchers, we had established veterans, Klubers, Bauer, Carrasco etc, when these guys are coming up, who could impart wisdom and say hey chill out in this situation and do this when this happens.

Lindor is a fine leader, but most of these guys are more aggressive in a sense and competitive (plus not very old). While that's good and dandy, i dont feel there is someone to keep them from getting off the rails. Right now they are off the rails and its just hurting us overall. The chemistry is good in the clubhouse, we just don't have that one guys who is the devils advocate and/or can be like chill your ass down and focus. You have to get your approach back.

The organization is going to have to ask themselves some hard questions as to what happened to the offense this year and why the young outfielders in particular hit so poorly. Zimmer, Mercado, Bauers, Luplow - they all badly underperformed and actually took steps backward this year (or last in Bauers' case) when they should be improving.

It's absolutely astonishing that Mercado is hitting .133 while Luplow is at .167. I'm sure there were pitchers in the National League who had higher batting averages than that last year. Zimmer and Naylor are at .162 and .161 in very small samples. The numbers are stupefying! Four young outfielders hitting .167 and below! And that doesn't even include Jake Bauers, who we traded Yandy Diaz for with the idea that he would replace Brantley as our left fielder of the future. Bauers didn't even get out of Eastlake which tells you how the team sees him right now.

It's tempting to blame the short pre-season but there are plenty of players around the league who are hitting right at or above their career norms. The short preparation certainly hasn't affected the White Sox.

The Indians have also used high draft picks on outfielders who failed to hit in the minors; Benson and Holmes to be specific.

DeShields, Naquin, and Domingo Santana are veterans. Santana flopped while Naquin and DeShields are below their career norms.

After they cut Carlos Santana loose after this season I imagine they will put Naylor at first base and go with an outfield of Luplow, Naquin, and Mercado. They need to find out once and for all if Luplow, Mercado, and Naylor will be core pieces going forward or if they are the next Jake Bauers. If the answer is no then I would probably put Nolan Jones at third in 2021, moving Hosey to left field. Hosey has played there before (when we had Juan Uribe) and it would reduce the wear and tear and let him focus on hitting. It worked great with Lonnie Chisenhall).

Another option would be to put Reyes in right field and sign a full-time DH. A lot of teams don't use one - they just give position players a rest day by having them DH. We might be able to find a good hitter who can't play defense and is affordable.

I have no idea what to do about centerfield except hope Mercado can find the batting stroke he had last year.

Ramirez has 11 home runs, which would extrapolate to 30 in a 162 game season. Problem is he's trying to hit 30 in a 60 game season. 11 in 60 just doesn't feel the same as 30 in 162 somehow. Pity.