Pretty sure that, if he hadn't shredded his knee, he'd have been the 1B to Barkley's 1A in that RB class from a draft capital perspective. He had 1760 scrimmage yards as a freshman and averaged 7.1 yards per carry. As a sophomore, he was averaging 8.1 YPC and had almost 750 yards in six games before he tore up his knee. He never got above 6.0 per carry again during his college career, but I think we can safely assume that was probably because he was still recovering from a major knee injury.
If he never gets hurt, I don't think there's any way he falls to round two, at least assuming his production didn't fall off significantly.