The 2021 Cleveland Baseball Organization

Gson said:

Maybe pass on both Tom and Gamel.. Being "better" won't help the major league club..either way..

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At this point, I'd rather just give Daniel Johnson a chance to see what he can do.

33Y0 said:

At this point, I'd rather just give Daniel Johnson a chance to see what he can do.

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No one wants to see Daniel Johnson more than I do. But this notion that we bring up anyone just to "give them a chance to see what they can do" is not something good organizations do with young players. You do that with veterans who may or may not have something left in their tanks and have an established track record. You also don't bring up Daniel Johnson or Bobby Bradley just because they "deserve it" based on a few weeks of spring training AB's and this is especially true when neither have had serious AB's against serious competition since 2019.

In Daniel Johnson's case, he has yet to prove he can hit LHP; are we ready as an organization to deem him a platoon player? Because that's what we'd be saying if we brought him up now. Better to play him against everyone in Columbus to see if he can improve against all pitching. Let's not sell him short. And if he proves he can't, we know what we've got when we bring him to the big club. Good organizations don't throw things at a wall at the big league level, nor do they have illusions about what their young players can do once they get there.

WhoAzcue said:

No one wants to see Daniel Johnson more than I do. But this notion that we bring up anyone just to "give them a chance to see what they can do" is not something good organizations do with young players. You do that with veterans who may or may not have something left in their tanks and have an established track record. You also don't bring up Daniel Johnson or Bobby Bradley just because they "deserve it" based on a few weeks of spring training AB's and this is especially true when neither have had serious AB's against serious competition since 2019.

In Daniel Johnson's case, he has yet to prove he can hit LHP; are we ready as an organization to deem him a platoon player? Because that's what we'd be saying if we brought him up now. Better to play him against everyone in Columbus to see if he can improve against all pitching. Let's not sell him short. And if he proves he can't, we know what we've got when we bring him to the big club. Good organizations don't throw things at a wall at the big league level, nor do they have illusions about what their young players can do once they get there.

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The problem with that is there's only so much you can prove at the minor league level before you simply become a AAAA player. Johnson isn't nearing that yet because he only played 84 games there in '19 and in '20, we obviously know what happened with that, but wouldn't you also rather have him take his lumps at the major league level and get the necessary experience?

33Y0 said:

wouldn't you also rather have him take his lumps at the major league level and get the necessary experience?

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No.

And again, I'm fairly certain Daniel Johnson is going to be a productive player one day. But sitting on the bench waiting for Francona to find the "perfect" time to use him is not the way for him to develop, much less gain experience. Let's see how he does in Columbus before subjecting him to Terry's whims.

I've been focused on the Tribe and it's so early that I haven't paid much attention to the standings but I just noticed (Duh!) that the Twins are in last place and have lost 9 of their last 10 games. They are in free fall.

Is this signficant or just a glitch? They can still hit, ranking 6th in the A.L. at 4.65 runs per game. This is an improvement over last year when they were at 4.37. But they're 9th in team ERA at 4.36 which is way down from the 3.52 their staff put up last year.

Kenta Maeda and Matt Shoemaker have ERA's of 6.11 and 6.28, respectively. They've started 7 of the Twins 17 games. Reliever Randy Dobnak has pitched in five games and is 0-3, 10.61. Their closer, Alex Colome, is 1-2, 5.63. It looks like they have serious issues with their closer, setup guy, and their #4 and #5 starters.

I wouldn't start heaping dirt on their grave yet. The Twins are 0-4 in extra inning games. They lost two other games by one run. So that's a total of six one-run losses. If they fix the bullpen and find another starter, or if Maeda figures it out, they should be fine. They won games by scores of 8-2, 15-6, and 10-2, which makes their overall numbers better than their W-L. They won a few blowouts and lost a lot of close ones.

Despite being 6-11 the Twins' run differential is a -3. The Royals are 10-7 with a run differential of -6.

They have been really dependent on just a few players for scoring. Byron Buxton is hitting an insane .432/1.456 in 12 games. Ageless Nelson Cruz is at .353/1.142 at age 41. Luis Arraez has an OBP of .409. Andrelton Simmons is at .355/.925 in 10 games. Josh Donaldson is back from a calf injury and has a line of .556/1.378 in 18 at-bats. They have some scary hitters.

OTOH, there's no way any of these guys except Arraez (hitting .309) can maintain these numbers over the course of a season. But Sano is hitting .111 and he'll improve on that.

The Twins need to find a 4th and 5th starter or get Maeda and Shoemaker straightened out. They need to find a closer or get Dobnak and Colume straightened out. Their offense is better than last year but a number of guys are hitting at levels that are unsustainable.

The good news for the Twins is they have a three-game series against the Pirates coming up. They need to get healthy against the Buck-o's because the Indians are next, starting Monday. We appear to be catching them at a good time although I was hoping Donaldson would be out longer.

Twins are playing like it's October

Positive things for the Indians offense, as the start has been a little devoid of positive things involving the offense.

Indians as a team have the 3rd highest average EV in the league at 90 MPH, behind just the Twins and Blue Jays. They have the leagues lowest BABIP as a team at .236 by almost 10 points. For reference, their last 3 years their BABIP has been .277, .289, and .291 and the league average tends to sit around .270. And on top of that, they're near their average strikeout% over the last 3 seasons, which is right around 22% (currently at 23.4%).

So they're hitting the ball hard and not striking out more frequently than normal, but when they're putting the ball in play they're getting hits at a rate significantly below the league average.

Over the course of a long season these tend to take care of themselves. As long as they continue to hit the ball hard, and this is harder than they've hit the ball over the last few years (88.2 in 2020, 89.5 in 2019, 88.8 in 2018), the offense will start to be a bit more watchable.

On this thread there was an earlier discussion on Franmil.

What is he now?
What can...or will...he become?

He's not that shabby now for a power hitter at age 25. Pure power hitters tend to develop later than anybody else, and continue thru advanced ages. ( There are obviously exceptions.)

I've studied four recent DH types who can be considered elite at what they do...or did....and compared them to Franmil at the same age. Reyes is far advanced of all of them thru age 24. So, just what can we expect of him this year at age 25 and beyond?

Edwin Encarnacion broke out at age 29. Before that he was an average producer, with an OPS+ that ranged from 87 to 111. Then, bang. He jumped to the 150 range for four years, before dropping to the 130 range as he aged.

J D Martinez didn't do much with three short shots with Houston, but went boom at age 26 with Detroit. For eight years he was a big producer, with OPS+ that generally stayed above 150.

Nelson Cruz at age 26 and in his fourth look in MLB had a huge 31 game stretch, and after that became generally about as productive as Franmil is now, with some variances. But at age 33 he met Ponce de Leon and has been bonkers ever since.

The ultimate, perhaps, when talking about DHs, is David Ortiz. For parts of six years for the Twins, he was Franmil Reyes with less Ks and less homers, but overall generally the same OPS+. But at age 27 he moved to Boston, put on a cape, and became Big Papi for 14 years.

This is not to say that Reyes will become any of them. But he is better than all of them at the same age, and he has yet to hit their earliest break out age, which is a year from now.

Another thought...

At the age of 22, Franmils hit tool was rated better than Nolan Jones '. And although younger, he Kd a lot less, although did not walk nearly as much.

If I was our FO, and wanted to make a judicious long term investment, I'd certainly initiate negotiations with Reyes agent. Young DH only players don't generally get big contracts, and it might be possible to extend him a looooong time at a super affordable contract...at annual costs that wouldn't cripple us if he didn't work out

BimboColesHair said:

Positive things for the Indians offense, as the start has been a little devoid of positive things involving the offense.

Indians as a team have the 3rd highest average EV in the league at 90 MPH, behind just the Twins and Blue Jays. They have the leagues lowest BABIP as a team at .236 by almost 10 points. For reference, their last 3 years their BABIP has been .277, .289, and .291 and the league average tends to sit around .270. And on top of that, they're near their average strikeout% over the last 3 seasons, which is right around 22% (currently at 23.4%).

So they're hitting the ball hard and not striking out more frequently than normal, but when they're putting the ball in play they're getting hits at a rate significantly below the league average.

Over the course of a long season these tend to take care of themselves. As long as they continue to hit the ball hard, and this is harder than they've hit the ball over the last few years (88.2 in 2020, 89.5 in 2019, 88.8 in 2018), the offense will start to be a bit more watchable.

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Small correction, but the league average BABIP is typically much higher than .270

In 2019, our last full season, the worst BABIP in the league was .280, and 15th in the league was .297.

Last year, 15th was still .291, but last was .245 (Cincy had atrocious luck)

Derek said:

Small correction, but the league average BABIP is typically much higher than .270

In 2019, our last full season, the worst BABIP in the league was .280, and 15th in the league was .297.

Last year, 15th was still .291, but last was .245 (Cincy had atrocious luck)

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Should make people feel even better.

CATS44 said:

On this thread there was an earlier discussion on Franmil.

What is he now?
What can...or will...he become?

He's not that shabby now for a power hitter at age 25. Pure power hitters tend to develop later than anybody else, and continue thru advanced ages. ( There are obviously exceptions.)

I've studied four recent DH types who can be considered elite at what they do...or did....and compared them to Franmil at the same age. Reyes is far advanced of all of them thru age 24. So, just what can we expect of him this year at age 25 and beyond?

Edwin Encarnacion broke out at age 29. Before that he was an average producer, with an OPS+ that ranged from 87 to 111. Then, bang. He jumped to the 150 range for four years, before dropping to the 130 range as he aged.

J D Martinez didn't do much with three short shots with Houston, but went boom at age 26 with Detroit. For eight years he was a big producer, with OPS+ that generally stayed above 150.

Nelson Cruz at age 26 and in his fourth look in MLB had a huge 31 game stretch, and after that became generally about as productive as Franmil is now, with some variances. But at age 33 he met Ponce de Leon and has been bonkers ever since.

The ultimate, perhaps, when talking about DHs, is David Ortiz. For parts of six years for the Twins, he was Franmil Reyes with less Ks and less homers, but overall generally the same OPS+. But at age 27 he moved to Boston, put on a cape, and became Big Papi for 14 years.

This is not to say that Reyes will become any of them. But he is better than all of them at the same age, and he has yet to hit their earliest break out age, which is a year from now.

Another thought...

At the age of 22, Franmils hit tool was rated better than Nolan Jones '. And although younger, he Kd a lot less, although did not walk nearly as much.

If I was our FO, and wanted to make a judicious long term investment, I'd certainly initiate negotiations with Reyes agent. Young DH only players don't generally get big contracts, and it might be possible to extend him a looooong time at a super affordable contract...at annual costs that wouldn't cripple us if he didn't work out

Click to expand...

I don't think Franmil gets enough credit for the hitter he actually is because he has so much power. When he focuses on going up the middle or to the right he's incredible. The only thing about the Franimal that he'll need to keep a wraps on is his physical conditioning. I'd like to see him drop another 20lbs TBH. If he did that then I think he could find himself in RF. He moves well for a big man and he has a strong arm. Regardless, his bat is an asset and I wouldn't be opposed at all to locking him up.

The one mild criticism on Reyes for me is pitch recognition/chasing balls in the dirt in particular. He will get better as he takes more and more at bats.

I dont want to see Franmil in the outfield.

What do you get when you put a DH in the outfield?

Eloy Jimenez.

Or Rhys Hoskins.

The Phils wanted to add Santana, so they moved Hoskins to RF. Hoskins was such a disaster...to put it kindly...that the Phils were forced to make a bad trade to open up first base for him. (The NL doesn't have a DH, but it applies just the same)

WhoAzcue said:

No one wants to see Daniel Johnson more than I do. But this notion that we bring up anyone just to "give them a chance to see what they can do" is not something good organizations do with young players. You do that with veterans who may or may not have something left in their tanks and have an established track record. You also don't bring up Daniel Johnson or Bobby Bradley just because they "deserve it" based on a few weeks of spring training AB's and this is especially true when neither have had serious AB's against serious competition since 2019.

In Daniel Johnson's case, he has yet to prove he can hit LHP; are we ready as an organization to deem him a platoon player? Because that's what we'd be saying if we brought him up now. Better to play him against everyone in Columbus to see if he can improve against all pitching. Let's not sell him short. And if he proves he can't, we know what we've got when we bring him to the big club. Good organizations don't throw things at a wall at the big league level, nor do they have illusions about what their young players can do once they get there.

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I agree with not rushing a player who isn't ready overall, but there's plenty of examples of players who performed poorly against one side early on in their careers and figured it out at the ML level.

CATS44 said:

I dont want to see Franmil in the outfield.

What do you get when you put a DH in the outfield?

Eloy Jimenez.

Or Rhys Hoskins.

The Phils wanted to add Santana, so they moved Hoskins to RF. Hoskins was such a disaster...to put it kindly...that the Phils were forced to make a bad trade to open up first base for him. (The NL doesn't have a DH, but it applies just the same)

Click to expand...

I don't want to see the 270lb Franmil in the OF either. That stipulation is based off of him becoming more lean and mobile. Franmil played RF prior to coming to Cleveland and while he wasn't anywhere close to being a "good" OFer he was no "disaster", and he was heavy there as well. He has the tools, but can he get himself mobile enough to play average defense? Look how much better Naylor moves after losing all that weight.

Eloy Jimenez is nothing like Reyes. He has poor instincts and can't read a ball off the bat to save his life. I'll go as far as to question his baseball IQ. He's not a good example whatsoever.