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2021 Minor League Thread

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petes999 said:
New CBA which may change their finances, arbitration for Beiber and Reyes, extension talks supposedly occurring and waiting on new minority owner who needs approval before any new cash infusion (note, up front fees go to Sherman as his profit first before Dolan can sell more of his share for more cash) = great uncertainty. That with limited roster space means Indians will either go big or go home empty. Agree Canha type free agents for 1-year MAY not seem intriguing if other trades don’t happen and thus risk losing a Tena or Palacios. That is why I think trade is more likely for more certain LF.
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I don't think there's much uncertainty. Neither side will benefit by a work stoppage, especially with the 2020 season so close in the rearview mirror. I didn't even list a new minority owner so good catch.

They may not, but I think the Guardians should have interest in all of Aguilar, Cron, Renfroe, and a C. They all fit very well with Cleveland's needs IMO.

A trade for a LHRP would also be helpful IMO.
 
CDAV45 said:
I don't think there's much uncertainty. Neither side will benefit by a work stoppage, especially with the 2020 season so close in the rearview mirror. I didn't even list a new minority owner so good catch.

They may not, but I think the Guardians should have interest in all of Aguilar, Cron, Renfroe, and a C. They all fit very well with Cleveland's needs IMO.

A trade for a LHRP would also be helpful IMO.
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They definitely need a LHRP and I'm not counting on Hentges or Nelson. If the payroll is going up they need to get another Ollie Perez.

I'm concerned about the bullpen in general as Karinchak has been a completely different pitcher since they outlawed the stickum. I don't know if we can squeeze another good year out of Shaw and Wittgren. I'm a big fan of Clase and Sandlin and I'm optimistic about Stephan after his last outing, but after that I'm worried. I assume Karinchak will adjust given enough time, but I think we could have to go out and get three relievers.

I'm happy with Hedges and Ramos at catcher, or Berto if he will take a pay cut.

As for a potential work stoppage, we just had one last season which lasted 102 games and both sides took big hits financially. I can't believe they would sign up for an even bigger one next year.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
They definitely need a LHRP and I'm not counting on Hentges or Nelson. If the payroll is going up they need to get another Ollie Perez.

I'm concerned about the bullpen in general as Karinchak has been a completely different pitcher since they outlawed the stickum. I don't know if we can squeeze another good year out of Shaw and Wittgren. I'm a big fan of Clase and Sandlin and I'm optimistic about Stephan after his last outing, but after that I'm worried. I assume Karinchak will adjust given enough time, but I think we could have to go out and get three relievers.

I'm happy with Hedges and Ramos at catcher, or Berto if he will take a pay cut.

As for a potential work stoppage, we just had one last season which lasted 102 games and both sides took big hits financially. I can't believe they would sign up for an even bigger one next year.
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Wham: Glad Henri didn’t knock you offline. I too am concerned about the bullpen and have every expectation that neither Shaw or Wittgren will return next season. I also am not convinced that Karinchak is mentally prepared to make the necessary adjustments to a post stickum MLB landscape.
Regarding a potential work stoppage, do not underestimate the stupidity that seemingly reins with negotiations between MLBPA and MLB owners.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
As for a potential work stoppage, we just had one last season which lasted 102 games and both sides took big hits financially. I can't believe they would sign up for an even bigger one next year.
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The CBA will cover more than just the 2022 season.. This contract could be considered a defining change in the way MLB does business.. The explosive growth in revenues and the ability to share those revenues as defined by this contract are at stake..
 
For reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum, Franmil is not going to play RF regularly. He is the DH.

Unless we are not paying any attention, defense counts.

Of the other names discussed...Cron, Aguilar, Pham, Renfroe, and Canha...Canha is by far the best option. (I'm not taking into account the cost involved of any of them...just the baseball value as pertains to our roster situation.)

Canha is the only one who plays multiple positions, capable of playing 1B and all three outfield positions.

Bringing in Cron or Aguilar means the FO has given up on Bradley. Bringing in Pam or Renfroe does not address the 1B situation as it presently stands. We do not know yet whether Bradley is viable or how soon Naylor will be ready.

Besides that, Canha is the better bat, esp over the last several years.

Career wRC+...

Cron....112
Canha...117
Pham....123
Aguilar...114
Renfroe...104


But if you look at the last three years...

Cron...101, 128, 125
Canha...147, 128, 122
Pham...122, 78, 108
Aguilar...89, 122, 117
Renfroe...98, 77, 111

And, again, we aren't paying attention if we haven't noticed the orgs trend towards OBP over SLG.

And when it comes to OBP, Canha over the last three years....396, 387, 366. None of the others come close.

Canha, Pham, and Cron are FAs. Canha will be 33, Pham 34, and Cron 32.

Aguilar has one year of control left. Miami, with a surplus of good young pitching and a desperate need for offense is unlikely to be interested in moving him.

Renfroe has 2 yrs of control left and making $3.1 mil this year. Boston is unlikely to want to move such an affordable bat as it begins spending again...but will do so if they can sell high.
 
CATS44 said:
For reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum, Franmil is not going to play RF regularly. He is the DH.

Unless we are not paying any attention, defense counts.

Of the other names discussed...Cron, Aguilar, Pham, Renfroe, and Canha...Canha is by far the best option. (I'm not taking into account the cost involved of any of them...just the baseball value as pertains to our roster situation.)

Canha is the only one who plays multiple positions, capable of playing 1B and all three outfield positions.

Bringing in Cron or Aguilar means the FO has given up on Bradley. Bringing in Pam or Renfroe does not address the 1B situation as it presently stands. We do not know yet whether Bradley is viable or how soon Naylor will be ready.

Besides that, Canha is the better bat, esp over the last several years.

Career wRC+...

Cron....112
Canha...117
Pham....123
Aguilar...114
Renfroe...104


But if you look at the last three years...

Cron...101, 128, 125
Canha...147, 128, 122
Pham...122, 78, 108
Aguilar...89, 122, 117
Renfroe...98, 77, 111

And, again, we aren't paying attention if we haven't noticed the orgs trend towards OBP over SLG.

And when it comes to OBP, Canha over the last three years....396, 387, 366. None of the others come close.

Canha, Pham, and Cron are FAs. Canha will be 33, Pham 34, and Cron 32.

Aguilar has one year of control left. Miami, with a surplus of good young pitching and a desperate need for offense is unlikely to be interested in moving him.

Renfroe has 2 yrs of control left and making $3.1 mil this year. Boston is unlikely to want to move such an affordable bat as it begins spending again...but will do so if they can sell high.
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The question is how long do we wanted to sign Canha? 1 year with a second year team option like with Hernandez at 5-7 mil a season range?
 
sportscoach said:
The question is how long do we wanted to sign Canha? 1 year with a second year team option like with Hernandez at 5-7 mil a season range?
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IMO Canha is gonna get a contract for three years that the FO is not gonna want to pay.

I think the TYPE of player is correct, but the age-salary and how we acquire is wrong.

Look for a young vet with control at affordable salaries, and use our trade assets to acquire him.
 
Canha is a very under rated player, not a superstar, but the next level. A plus defender in right, and capable of playing center, left, and first.

His OBP is close to elite, he is a very tough out, and doesn't have split problems. He even swipes a few bags, but at 32 yrs old, that shouldn't be taken into account.

Looking at what corner players made in free agency, Eddie got $8 mil, Schwarber got $10 mil with an option. Brantley got $32 mil for two years. An argument can be made that Canha on paper is coming off better years that are at least as good as those three....and that Canha is a better player than all but Brantley...and that is a close call.

My guess is that Canha over the next two years will make within range of what Jose is signed for now. If he could be had for Hernandez money, we should grab him for three years, and even if the third year is a bust, he would be a steal. But 4 WAR players don't sign for $6 mil.

If you exterpolate Canhas numbers for 2020 and the rest of 2021, he has averaged 4 fWAR over the last three years.
 
CATS44 said:
For reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum, Franmil is not going to play RF regularly. He is the DH.

Unless we are not paying any attention, defense counts.

Of the other names discussed...Cron, Aguilar, Pham, Renfroe, and Canha...Canha is by far the best option. (I'm not taking into account the cost involved of any of them...just the baseball value as pertains to our roster situation.)

Canha is the only one who plays multiple positions, capable of playing 1B and all three outfield positions.

Bringing in Cron or Aguilar means the FO has given up on Bradley. Bringing in Pam or Renfroe does not address the 1B situation as it presently stands. We do not know yet whether Bradley is viable or how soon Naylor will be ready.

Besides that, Canha is the better bat, esp over the last several years.

Career wRC+...

Cron....112
Canha...117
Pham....123
Aguilar...114
Renfroe...104


But if you look at the last three years...

Cron...101, 128, 125
Canha...147, 128, 122
Pham...122, 78, 108
Aguilar...89, 122, 117
Renfroe...98, 77, 111

And, again, we aren't paying attention if we haven't noticed the orgs trend towards OBP over SLG.

And when it comes to OBP, Canha over the last three years....396, 387, 366. None of the others come close.

Canha, Pham, and Cron are FAs. Canha will be 33, Pham 34, and Cron 32.

Aguilar has one year of control left. Miami, with a surplus of good young pitching and a desperate need for offense is unlikely to be interested in moving him.

Renfroe has 2 yrs of control left and making $3.1 mil this year. Boston is unlikely to want to move such an affordable bat as it begins spending again...but will do so if they can sell high.
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At 32 Canha doesn't seem like the kind of player the Indians have been targeting recently (young and controllable), although Eddie Rosario comes close. But the sudden emergence of McKenzie and Quantrill as high level starters to combine with Bieber, Civale and Plesac may convince management that they need to go for it NOW, while we still have Josie in his prime. After this season we probably have to trade him.

OTOH, Canha at 32 only has 2,000 career at-bats, just over three full seasons. His career line is .246/.781; this year he's at .237/.764. Looking at his career year-by-year he only had one good season; in 2019 he hit .273/.913, which appears to be an outlier. His next highest OPS in a full season was .778 and that was in 365 at-bats. Other than 2019 I'm just not seeing a good player. He's 1-for-14 at the Prog this year.

He doesn't hit for power (12 HR's in nearly 400 AB's), or average (.237). But he does walk a lot (58 times) and gets hit by tons of pitches (22 this year). I like the OBP but that's about it. Not much power or average and Fangraphs has him as a defensive liability over the last several years.

His defense is a -5 according to Fangraphs. He plays left field primarily.

I would rather platoon Naylor and Harold Ramirez in left. You'd get a lot more bat and probably the same or better defense. I don't like the idea of putting Canha in left and Naylor/Ramirez in right. Bad defense at both corners.

I would rather putting together a prospect package to get a better corner outfielder both offensively and defensively than Canha at age 33.
 
Because Tribe is analytic driven, age at 33 next year is absolutely a factor as it starts the gray area of possible decline. Yes, Indians have taken shots at EE and Hafner but those are special hitters than the norm and they have been stricter as of late.

So, he either gets a 3-4 year contract that FO chokes on or he gets a 1 year contract at expense of Rule 5 potential loss. No way FO does this gamble for a 2.5-3 WAR player per BR (factoring in a huge negative defensive grade) and then bumped down for aging. Yes, our rookies wont get 1 WAR next year but over 5-6 years is what analytics looks at - unless this extension talk isnt true and we are win now mode like with EE.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
At 32 Canha doesn't seem like the kind of player the Indians have been targeting recently (young and controllable), although Eddie Rosario comes close. But the sudden emergence of McKenzie and Quantrill as high level starters to combine with Bieber, Civale and Plesac may convince management that they need to go for it NOW, while we still have Josie in his prime. After this season we probably have to trade him.

OTOH, Canha at 32 only has 2,000 career at-bats, just over three full seasons. His career line is .246/.781; this year he's at .237/.764. Looking at his career year-by-year he only had one good season; in 2019 he hit .273/.913, which appears to be an outlier. His next highest OPS in a full season was .778 and that was in 365 at-bats. Other than 2019 I'm just not seeing a good player. He's 1-for-14 at the Prog this year.

He doesn't hit for power (12 HR's in nearly 400 AB's), or average (.237). But he does walk a lot (58 times) and gets hit by tons of pitches (22 this year). I like the OBP but that's about it. Not much power or average and Fangraphs has him as a defensive liability over the last several years.

His defense is a -5 according to Fangraphs. He plays left field primarily.

I would rather platoon Naylor and Harold Ramirez in left. You'd get a lot more bat and probably the same or better defense. I don't like the idea of putting Canha in left and Naylor/Ramirez in right. Bad defense at both corners.

I would rather putting together a prospect package to get a better corner outfielder both offensively and defensively than Canha at age 33.
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I'm not advocating for acquiring Canha, and agree that the target should be a younger player available thru trading of prospects...which is what I HAVE been advocating for for a full year.

But the point is that we are severely underestimating Canha.

For three years he has produced at an annual level between 22% and 47% above average. Over the last 15 years, the Tribe has had only three players who have produced that well...Jose, Brantley, and Choo...not Lindor in his prime, not Santana, not Kipnis, not Edwin.
 
Valera is only 20 years old. Won't be 21 till November. I hope they don't rush him. If he performs well in AA, then the temptation will be there.
(Of course, Al Kaline made his MLB debut at 19. )
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Valera is only 20 years old. Won't be 21 till November. I hope they don't rush him. If he performs well in AA, then the temptation will be there.
(Of course, Al Kaline made his MLB debut at 19. )
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Valera has lost 2 years of development - if he didn't break his hamate bone or Covid wasn't around he might be in the majors now. He is one of the young guys, who you might want to "rush" a little.

Showing up in 2022 seems reasonable at this point, not to start the season but a red hot Valera could end swinging a bat for the Guardians by mid-summer. Otherwise he should finish in AAA/ML in 2022 with a shot of being/becoming a regular in 2023.
 
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