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Replacing Baker Mayfield: Poll
- Thread starter Randolphkeys
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CBBI
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It's hard to know what Las Vegas is going to do because they're definitely going to be looking for a new coach and they may be looking for a new general manager as well.
What I do know is that Derek Carr has zero ($0) guaranteed dollars left on his contract. So the Raiders can very easily trade him without any issue whatsoever since it wouldn't accelerate any bonus money onto their books.
It will be much easier for the Raiders to trade Carr than it will be for the Browns to trade Mayfield given their respective contract statuses.
CBBI
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The guaranteed contract element for Mayfield is tricky, yes.
At $18.8M, it basically limits teams that would be willing to trade for him to only teams that would be acquiring him to be their no questions asked starting quarterback.
$18.8M guaranteed is too much for a backup or a QB competition. It's either starter or nothing at that price.
But Carson Wentz had a worse year last year than Mayfield is having this year and he still fetched a 1st and a 2nd.
Sam Darnold has been basically awful every year of his career and he still fetched a 2nd, 4th and 6th.
I suspect if the Browns do trade for a veteran, they'll be able to find a taker for Mayfield because there's just too many teams that need quarterbacks.
CBBI
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What's your point?
Carr had 27 TD and 9 picks last year with a much weaker running game and a much worse OL than Baker had.
Carr: 16.0% bad throw and 78.9% on target last year.
Mayfield: 18.8% bad throw and 74.8% on target last year.
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Full disclosure, I know a number of Raiders fans. They were done with Carr early in the season. He is mediocre, and like Baker, every fan base wants better than mediocre.
I do believe you have to take into account the stadiums Carr plays in. His home field is a dome, and the AFC West is predominantly warm weather and pass happy/little defense football.
I do believe you have to take into account the stadiums Carr plays in. His home field is a dome, and the AFC West is predominantly warm weather and pass happy/little defense football.
Vee-Rex
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I see this all the time from their fanbase. I've been following them for a couple years now and they're pretty much fed up with him. So even if we did acquire him I don't know if we'll suddenly ravish the division and AFC in general. Dude has flaws himself and I have no doubts this fanbase will grow weary and eat him alive if he isn't firing us into the Super Bowl.
Great point and something I never thought of.
CBBI
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I've said this before, but a lot of NFL folks like to say that quarterbacks are either trucks or they are trailers.
If they're a truck, they're the ones making everything go forward. They are the ones pulling their teammates. There's only like 5-6 true "truck" QBs in the sport - Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, the best of the best. Just having a guy like that on your roster gives you a great chance of winning every game you play.
If they're a trailer, their movement forward is mostly/entirely predicated on what's around them. Their WRs, their OL, their running game, their coaching, their defense, etc.
Derek Carr is not a truck. Neither is Baker Mayfield. They both need pieces around them to have maximum success.
But I don't think it's even a question that Carr has been the more productive quarterback over the last three years. When you factor in how much less Carr gets from his running game and his OL than Mayfield gets (and if you really want to dive deeper, how much less the Raiders have gotten from the GM compared to the Browns with Berry), the gap to me is much wider.
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Jscc
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I was ready to scoff at a Stafford/Carr comparison because I am not high on Carr, but I pulled up their career stats (Carr's is 8 years and Stafford's first 8 years) and I am impressed with Carr's numbers. Stafford had the luxury of a Calvin Johnson and Carr still put up better numbers: more yards, more TDs, less INTs, higher completion %, and higher QB rating.
Their stats:
https://stathead.com/football/pcm_f...player_id2=CarrDe02&p2yrfrom=2014&p2yrto=2021
CBBI
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Is it surprising at all that Stafford is having most productive full season of his career?
He went from a decade with one of the more inept franchises in the NFL to getting paired up with one of the best coaches in the league.
It was like hitting the football lottery for him.
daddywags
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I've always liked Derek Carr. I think he’s an underrated QB who would be a nice get for us IF he didn't cost much. If we could just swap Mayfield for Carr I'd probably do it. But I doubt the Raiders would.
Malacogary
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Yet Stafford is not exactly having a career year under McVey, is he? He's been streaky, starting off like a kid in a candy store, then struggling and showing us exactly what he is: a guy with arm talent, but not a dominant all-pro type QB. He was largely awful against Minn. this past weekend, presiding over lots of three-and-outs, throwing three picks and eventually being very lucky that his team scored a punt-return TD to secure a win in a vital game.
The stakes are now much higher for Stafford than at any time in his career. Does anyone have confidence in him that he can win three playoff games in a conference where the playoff QBs will include Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers?
I think there's a wafer of difference between a healthy Mayfield and Derek Carr. Baker would have been rightly condemned for throwing the pick Carr lobbed straight up to Greedy Williams last week. A Carr for Mayfield deal is not an upgrade worth the price.
The stakes are now much higher for Stafford than at any time in his career. Does anyone have confidence in him that he can win three playoff games in a conference where the playoff QBs will include Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers?
I think there's a wafer of difference between a healthy Mayfield and Derek Carr. Baker would have been rightly condemned for throwing the pick Carr lobbed straight up to Greedy Williams last week. A Carr for Mayfield deal is not an upgrade worth the price.
CBBI
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In terms of non-injury seasons, Stafford currently has career highs in Touchdown Percentage, Yards Per Attempt, QB Rating and career best rankings in DYAR, DVOA and QBR.
Slice it however you want, it's been the best full season of his career. You could make the case 2019 was better, but he only played 8 games that year.
Going back to the Carr vs. Mayfield debate. It boils down to two things for me.
1. How much better would Derek Carr look playing with a high end running game and a high end offensive line for the first time?
2. Was 2020 the best Baker Mayfield can play in this system?
Statistically, Carr over the last three years on average has been slightly better than Mayfield was in 2020 and that was without the great rushing attack and great offensive line that Baker had.
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@CBBI and @I'mWithDan have hit on it continuously but I don't think people realize how bad Baker has been during his four years here..
Yes he's been better than what we've had but it's still only amounted to average/below average which isn't going to get the Browns to where they need to go...
EPA+CPOE
Last 4 years: 28th
Last 3 years: 25th
Last 2 years: 21st
This year: 36th
EPA
Last 4 years: 26th
Last 3 years: 24th
Last 2 years: 16th
This year: 31st
CPOE
Last 4 years: 32nd
Last 3 years: 33rd
Last 2 years: 24th
This year: 35th
Success rate
Last 4 years: 34th
Last 3 years: 29th
Last 2 years: 17th
This year: 32nd
EPA+CPOE on 3rd/4th downs
Last 4 years: 27th
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 25th
This year: 36th
EPA+CPOE in 4th Q/OT
Last 4 years: 31st
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 37th
This year: 36th
The biggest issue with Baker is he's consistently inconsistent and his stretches of bad play happen far too often, and happen at the times when the Browns need him the most... The bad Baker comes with the good Baker and can happen from game to game or drive to drive, and that type of unpredictable play is killing the Browns offensive efficiency..
What I just don't understand is the stats obviously point to Baker being a below average QB throughout his tenure yet some cling to his sample stretches of good play when they have been not norm..
I understand the options for upgrades are more limited next year but that shouldn't stop the Browns from seeking an upgrade when the opportunity to win is now...
If the Browns do seek alternatives, I can't see Baker taking too lightly to that, especially without a contract extension in hand, and could see a mutual separation occur.. Knowing what we know about Baker, his sensitivity for these things could make it a tenable solution, and I don't think the FO is for the drama.. The guarantee money is an obstacle, but if they are able to find a trade partner for him it wipes clean his salary..
I know some cling to the thought that Baker on a rebound year provides the Browns with further evaluation and with the upside that he is the long-term answer... But two questions-- 1). Can the Browns really afford another uncertain evaluation year with the current roster/opportunity window? and, 2). Do we think the Browns FO doesn't have a feeling, regardless of next season or not, regarding a long-term extension with Baker?
I look at the offseason as a bridge-year regardless of who is at QB... Baker isn't likely your long-term QB so, you do what you can to upgrade the position and go into 2023 looking for your franchise guy with Carr, Cousins, Stafford, Jimmy G and a better draft class in tow..
This off-season, you do what you can to gauge the chances of Rodgers/Wilson/Watson, which is not likely... If not, hope that Vikings/Raiders decide to move on from Carr/Cousins, which again isn't likely... Also, watch to see how the Rodgers/Wilson/Watson domino falls and who becomes available as a result (Hurts/Tua, more realistic)... After that, I would say Jimmy G is your fallback option, with bringing in Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota to backup Baker as your last option..
Berry has done everything he can to provide the infrastructure to Baker and eliminate all variables when evaluating QB play... Yet this year, in true Browns fashion, they've done everything they can to make it more convoluted... With that said, I just don't see Baker's decision making and play style being in the interest of where the Browns want to go with the position... Until the Browns can find a franchise guy, they're likely cycling through tier 3 QBs who all have their warts.. However, I think Baker has run its course in Cleveland and with the low bar of play he's set, they're better off trying to see what else is out there at this point..
Yes he's been better than what we've had but it's still only amounted to average/below average which isn't going to get the Browns to where they need to go...
EPA+CPOE
Last 4 years: 28th
Last 3 years: 25th
Last 2 years: 21st
This year: 36th
EPA
Last 4 years: 26th
Last 3 years: 24th
Last 2 years: 16th
This year: 31st
CPOE
Last 4 years: 32nd
Last 3 years: 33rd
Last 2 years: 24th
This year: 35th
Success rate
Last 4 years: 34th
Last 3 years: 29th
Last 2 years: 17th
This year: 32nd
EPA+CPOE on 3rd/4th downs
Last 4 years: 27th
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 25th
This year: 36th
EPA+CPOE in 4th Q/OT
Last 4 years: 31st
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 37th
This year: 36th
The biggest issue with Baker is he's consistently inconsistent and his stretches of bad play happen far too often, and happen at the times when the Browns need him the most... The bad Baker comes with the good Baker and can happen from game to game or drive to drive, and that type of unpredictable play is killing the Browns offensive efficiency..
What I just don't understand is the stats obviously point to Baker being a below average QB throughout his tenure yet some cling to his sample stretches of good play when they have been not norm..
I understand the options for upgrades are more limited next year but that shouldn't stop the Browns from seeking an upgrade when the opportunity to win is now...
If the Browns do seek alternatives, I can't see Baker taking too lightly to that, especially without a contract extension in hand, and could see a mutual separation occur.. Knowing what we know about Baker, his sensitivity for these things could make it a tenable solution, and I don't think the FO is for the drama.. The guarantee money is an obstacle, but if they are able to find a trade partner for him it wipes clean his salary..
I know some cling to the thought that Baker on a rebound year provides the Browns with further evaluation and with the upside that he is the long-term answer... But two questions-- 1). Can the Browns really afford another uncertain evaluation year with the current roster/opportunity window? and, 2). Do we think the Browns FO doesn't have a feeling, regardless of next season or not, regarding a long-term extension with Baker?
I look at the offseason as a bridge-year regardless of who is at QB... Baker isn't likely your long-term QB so, you do what you can to upgrade the position and go into 2023 looking for your franchise guy with Carr, Cousins, Stafford, Jimmy G and a better draft class in tow..
This off-season, you do what you can to gauge the chances of Rodgers/Wilson/Watson, which is not likely... If not, hope that Vikings/Raiders decide to move on from Carr/Cousins, which again isn't likely... Also, watch to see how the Rodgers/Wilson/Watson domino falls and who becomes available as a result (Hurts/Tua, more realistic)... After that, I would say Jimmy G is your fallback option, with bringing in Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota to backup Baker as your last option..
Berry has done everything he can to provide the infrastructure to Baker and eliminate all variables when evaluating QB play... Yet this year, in true Browns fashion, they've done everything they can to make it more convoluted... With that said, I just don't see Baker's decision making and play style being in the interest of where the Browns want to go with the position... Until the Browns can find a franchise guy, they're likely cycling through tier 3 QBs who all have their warts.. However, I think Baker has run its course in Cleveland and with the low bar of play he's set, they're better off trying to see what else is out there at this point..
Malacogary
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Stafford is currently surrounded by the best talent and coaching he's ever had. I'd call it a career year if his play over the first month of the season had continued at that level. As it is all his stats have plateaued.
Malacogary
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Highly selective clustering of stats to make your point. As you know grouping this year with last year to come up with the 'Last two years' data is a cherry-picking exercise which masks Mayfield's relative effectiveness in his best year.
For what it's worth I agree with your evaluation of the offseason feelings about Baker in Berea. I don't think they just roll with Baker's fifth year and see what happens. They're now in a position with the rest of the roster that they cannot simply leave the most important position to chance. I think there will definitely be a new QB here for the 2022 season.