Do you think that a straight-up trade of Mayfield for Carr could be made?
I think I'd feel foolish adding value to it.
To me this debate continues to come back to two things:
1) Baker is guaranteed a large sum of $ in 2022
2) There isn't a significant upgrade likely to be available.
Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem realistic. Russell Wilson doesn't either, and he hasn't played well since returning from his injury.
Kirk Cousins could probably be had. Derek Carr might be available. You could make an argument for either as an upgrade, but at what cost in terms of assets? And what do you do with Baker?
Guys like Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Cam Newton could be had I'm sure but none scream significant upgrade. There's no sure-fire franchise QB in the draft.
It just seems like it makes the most sense to let him get back to 100% in the offseason, add some WR talent (because you need that no matter what is under center), and you play out 2022. If he does well, work out an extension. If he doesn't, start on a Plan B.
Theoretically, he’s also been hurt all fucking season long after throwing 26 TD and 8 picks last year.
Actually no, that’s not theoretic at all now is it.
I see this all the time from their fanbase. I've been following them for a couple years now and they're pretty much fed up with him. So even if we did acquire him I don't know if we'll suddenly ravish the division and AFC in general. Dude has flaws himself and I have no doubts this fanbase will grow weary and eat him alive if he isn't firing us into the Super Bowl.Full disclosure, I know a number of Raiders fans. They were done with Carr early in the season. He is mediocre, and like Baker, every fan base wants better than mediocre.
Great point and something I never thought of.I do believe you have to take into account the stadiums Carr plays in. His home field is a dome, and the AFC West is predominantly warm weather and pass happy/little defense football.
Full disclosure, I know a number of Raiders fans. They were done with Carr early in the season. He is mediocre, and like Baker, every fan base wants better than mediocre.
I do believe you have to take into account the stadiums Carr plays in. His home field is a dome, and the AFC West is predominantly warm weather and pass happy/little defense football.
I was ready to scoff at a Stafford/Carr comparison because I am not high on Carr, but I pulled up their career stats (Carr's is 8 years and Stafford's first 8 years) and I am impressed with Carr's numbers. Stafford had the luxury of a Calvin Johnson and Carr still put up better numbers: more yards, more TDs, less INTs, higher completion %, and higher QB rating.Derek Carr
-2018: 27th in QBR, 18th in QB Rating, 20th in YPA, 21st in DYAR, 22nd in DVOA, 25th in Rush DVOA, 30th in PFF Pass Blocking-
-2019: 10th in QBR, 9th in QB Rating, 9th in YPA, 6th in DYAR, 8th in DVOA, 18th in Rush DVOA, 15th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2020: 11th in QBR, 10th in QB Rating, 7th in YPA, 7th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 24th in Rush DVOA, 17th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2021: 10th in QBR, 11th in QB Rating, 5th in YPA, 8th in DYAR, 10th in DVOA, 28th in Rush DVOA, 23rd in PFF Pass Blocking
Baker Mayfield
-2018: 23rd in QBR, 19th in QB Rating, 12th in YPA, 12th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 17th in Rush DVOA, 3rd in PFF Pass Blocking
-2019: 19th in QBR, 31st in QB Rating, 16th in YPA, 25th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 14th in Rush DVOA, 17th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2020: 10th in QBR, 15th in QB Rating, 17th in YPA, 16th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, 7th in Rush DVOA, 1st in PFF Pass Blocking
-2021: 25th in QBR, 25th in QB Rating, 11th in YPA, 18th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, 5th in Rush DVOA, 10th in PFF Pass Blocking
And just for fun...
Carr 23 4th quarter comebacks and 28 game winning drives out of 125 total games (22%) and 55 wins (51%).
Mayfield 6th 4th quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives out of 59 total games (12%) and 29 wins (24%).
A lot of numbers to digest here, but over the last three years Derek Carr has easily been the more productive quarterback between he and Mayfield. When you factor in that Carr over that time frame has consistently been working with a much worse running game and a much worse offensive line than Baker has been working with and it's not really a comparison. Carr is better.
Now on the flip side, the case could be made that Carr didn't truly come into his own as a QB until he his age 28 season, which is obviously an age and experience level that Baker hasn't reached yet. So could there be untapped/more consistent production in Mayfield like there was with Carr? Potentially. But you could also argue that Baker has already had the benefit of being partnered with a quality coach who runs a quality scheme after just two years in the league which Carr didn't get until five years into his career.
What you'd be hoping for with Derek Carr is the same thing the Rams believe they got with Matthew Stafford. A talented QB who is capable of more than he's shown from a team success standpoint, but has ultimately been hamstrung for years by a poor rushing attack and a poor offensive line. Get that guy in a better scheme with a better running game and a better OL and see if he can take off.
I was ready to scoff at a Stafford/Carr comparison because I am not high on Carr, but I pulled up their career stats (Carr's is 8 years and Stafford's first 8 years) and I am impressed with Carr's numbers. Stafford had the luxury of a Calvin Johnson and Carr still put up better numbers: more yards, more TDs, less INTs, higher completion %, and higher QB rating.
Yet Stafford is not exactly having a career year under McVey, is he? He's been streaky, starting off like a kid in a candy store, then struggling and showing us exactly what he is: a guy with arm talent, but not a dominant all-pro type QB. He was largely awful against Minn. this past weekend, presiding over lots of three-and-outs, throwing three picks and eventually being very lucky that his team scored a punt-return TD to secure a win in a vital game.
The stakes are now much higher for Stafford than at any time in his career. Does anyone have confidence in him that he can win three playoff games in a conference where the playoff QBs will include Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers?
I think there's a wafer of difference between a healthy Mayfield and Derek Carr. Baker would have been rightly condemned for throwing the pick Carr lobbed straight up to Greedy Williams last week. A Carr for Mayfield deal is not an upgrade worth the price.
Highly selective clustering of stats to make your point. As you know grouping this year with last year to come up with the 'Last two years' data is a cherry-picking exercise which masks Mayfield's relative effectiveness in his best year.@CBBI and @I'mWithDan have hit on it continuously but I don't think people realize how bad Baker has been during his four years here..
Yes he's been better than what we've had but it's still only amounted to average/below average which isn't going to get the Browns to where they need to go...
EPA+CPOE
Last 4 years: 28th
Last 3 years: 25th
Last 2 years: 21st
This year: 36th
EPA
Last 4 years: 26th
Last 3 years: 24th
Last 2 years: 16th
This year: 31st
CPOE
Last 4 years: 32nd
Last 3 years: 33rd
Last 2 years: 24th
This year: 35th
Success rate
Last 4 years: 34th
Last 3 years: 29th
Last 2 years: 17th
This year: 32nd
EPA+CPOE on 3rd/4th downs
Last 4 years: 27th
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 25th
This year: 36th
EPA+CPOE in 4th Q/OT
Last 4 years: 31st
Last 3 years: 31st
Last 2 years: 37th
This year: 36th
The biggest issue with Baker is he's consistently inconsistent and his stretches of bad play happen far too often, and happen at the times when the Browns need him the most... The bad Baker comes with the good Baker and can happen from game to game or drive to drive, and that type of unpredictable play is killing the Browns offensive efficiency..
What I just don't understand is the stats obviously point to Baker being a below average QB throughout his tenure yet some cling to his sample stretches of good play when they have been not norm..
I understand the options for upgrades are more limited next year but that shouldn't stop the Browns from seeking an upgrade when the opportunity to win is now...
If the Browns do seek alternatives, I can't see Baker taking too lightly to that, especially without a contract extension in hand, and could see a mutual separation occur.. Knowing what we know about Baker, his sensitivity for these things could make it a tenable solution, and I don't think the FO is for the drama.. The guarantee money is an obstacle, but if they are able to find a trade partner for him it wipes clean his salary..
I know some cling to the thought that Baker on a rebound year provides the Browns with further evaluation and with the upside that he is the long-term answer... But two questions-- 1). Can the Browns really afford another uncertain evaluation year with the current roster/opportunity window? and, 2). Do we think the Browns FO doesn't have a feeling, regardless of next season or not, regarding a long-term extension with Baker?
I look at the offseason as a bridge-year regardless of who is at QB... Baker isn't likely your long-term QB so, you do what you can to upgrade the position and go into 2023 looking for your franchise guy with Carr, Cousins, Stafford, Jimmy G and a better draft class in tow..
This off-season, you do what you can to gauge the chances of Rodgers/Wilson/Watson, which is not likely... If not, hope that Vikings/Raiders decide to move on from Carr/Cousins, which again isn't likely... Also, watch to see how the Rodgers/Wilson/Watson domino falls and who becomes available as a result (Hurts/Tua, more realistic)... After that, I would say Jimmy G is your fallback option, with bringing in Teddy Bridgewater or Marcus Mariota to backup Baker as your last option..
Berry has done everything he can to provide the infrastructure to Baker and eliminate all variables when evaluating QB play... Yet this year, in true Browns fashion, they've done everything they can to make it more convoluted... With that said, I just don't see Baker's decision making and play style being in the interest of where the Browns want to go with the position... Until the Browns can find a franchise guy, they're likely cycling through tier 3 QBs who all have their warts.. However, I think Baker has run its course in Cleveland and with the low bar of play he's set, they're better off trying to see what else is out there at this point..