Replacing Baker Mayfield: Poll

CBBI said:

Carr in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has played at a notch slightly higher than Baker did in 2020. For the last three years Carr has played like roughly the 10th best NFL QB on average and Baker was roughly the 15th best in 2020.

10th vs. 15th is certainly not a massive difference, but it's still a little better. And that was with Carr working with a much worse running game and much worse OL than Baker was working with.

He's flawed, but the 2022 Browns would be the best offense Carr's ever played in by a mile.

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The difference is Carr is who he is. Baker we honestly don’t know what he is at this point. He could be better than Carr even next year or he could be worse. We honestly just don’t know. He’s only in his 4th year. And this is the only year he’s been in the same system and it’s been filled with injuries. Not just dings but actually injuries. We have seen Baker makes throws that Carr simply doesn’t have the talent to make. And then we have seen shit show throws as well. It’s all about consistency, can Baker do it? We don’t know but the upside is there and it’s up to the front office and coaching staff to decide if they can get Baker to that point or not

bob2the2nd said:

As of right now the Browns 2022 receivers are probably dead last in the league.

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I mean, it's not like Derek Carr is throwing to the 2001 Rams WR corps.

He has Hunter Renfroe, Darren Waller and a cast of characters that'd be lucky to make the Browns after that.

Spare me the sob story of "the Browns WR'ers suck". They are below average, for sure, but not to the point they are causing massive disruptions in the offense. It's a QB problem more than it is a WR problem.

bob2the2nd said:

As of right now the Browns 2022 receivers are probably dead last in the league.

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And? So?

It's a whole hell of a lot easier to find productive WRs than it is to find productive QBs.

Look at the most productive WRs in the league: Kupp 3rd rounder, Adams 2nd rounder, Samuel 2nd rounder, Hill 5th rounder, Godwin 3rd rounder, Diggs 5th rounder, Dionte Johnson 3rd rounder, Lockett 3rd rounder.

Chase went in the top 5 and he's great for Cincinnati... and they got a guy just as productive in the 2nd round in Higgins.

You can trade for elite WRs. You can sign elite WRs as free agents. You can find elite WRs all throughout the draft. You pretty much can't do that with QBs outside of rare exceptions and outliers.

The Browns current lack of WRs isn't a difficult to fix problem. It's something they can and will easily address this offseason.

Bkerr02 said:

The difference is Carr is who he is. Baker we honestly don’t know what he is at this point. He could be better than Carr even next year or he could be worse. We honestly just don’t know. He’s only in his 4th year. And this is the only year he’s been in the same system and it’s been filled with injuries. Not just dings but actually injuries. We have seen Baker makes throws that Carr simply doesn’t have the talent to make. And then we have seen shit show throws as well. It’s all about consistency, can Baker do it? We don’t know but the upside is there and it’s up to the front office and coaching staff to decide if they can get Baker to that point or not

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You pretty much summed up my thoughts nicely without realizing it.

You're correct. We DO know what Carr is... and what he is is better than what Mayfield was in Baker's best season.

And we also know that Carr has never played with a high end running game or a high end offensive line, two things he'd absolutely have in Cleveland in 2022.

There's no chance that Carr could elevate his play with better pieces around him? Should the Browns gamble on Baker playing better than he did in 2020 without much evidence that is sure to happen?

CBBI said:

And? So?

It's a whole hell of a lot easier to find productive WRs than it is to find productive QBs.

Look at the most productive WRs in the league: Kupp 3rd rounder, Adams 2nd rounder, Samuel 2nd rounder, Hill 5th rounder, Godwin 3rd rounder, Diggs 5th rounder, Dionte Johnson 3rd rounder, Lockett 3rd rounder.

Chase went in the top 5 and he's great for Cincinnati... and they got a guy just as productive in the 2nd round in Higgins.

You can trade for elite WRs. You can sign elite WRs as free agents. You can find elite WRs all throughout the draft. You pretty much can't do that with QBs outside of rare exceptions and outliers.

The Browns current lack of WRs isn't a difficult to fix problem. It's something they can and will easily address this offseason.



You pretty much summed up my thoughts nicely without realizing it.

You're correct. We DO know what Carr is... and what he is is better than what Mayfield was in Baker's best season.

And we also know that Carr has never played with a high end running game or a high end offensive line, two things he'd absolutely have in Cleveland in 2022.

There's no chance that Carr could elevate his play with better pieces around him? Should the Browns gamble on Baker playing better than he did in 2020 without much evidence that is sure to happen?

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come on man, I was literally responding to the post that said "this would be Carr's best supporting cast of his career", and i was responding that he at this point in time would literally have no one to throw to, and yes it would be worse than his receivers on the Raiders right now.

bob2the2nd said:

come on man, I was literally responding to the post that said "this would be Carr's best supporting cast of his career", and i was responding that he at this point in time would literally have no one to throw to, and yes it would be worse than his receivers on the Raiders right now.

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Running game and offensive line and offensive scheme aren’t supporting cast?

Because Carr’s never played in an offense with the Browns current ability to run the ball and current ability to pass block.

CBBI said:

And? So?

It's a whole hell of a lot easier to find productive WRs than it is to find productive QBs.

Look at the most productive WRs in the league: Kupp 3rd rounder, Adams 2nd rounder, Samuel 2nd rounder, Hill 5th rounder, Godwin 3rd rounder, Diggs 5th rounder, Dionte Johnson 3rd rounder, Lockett 3rd rounder.

Chase went in the top 5 and he's great for Cincinnati... and they got a guy just as productive in the 2nd round in Higgins.

You can trade for elite WRs. You can sign elite WRs as free agents. You can find elite WRs all throughout the draft. You pretty much can't do that with QBs outside of rare exceptions and outliers.

The Browns current lack of WRs isn't a difficult to fix problem. It's something they can and will easily address this offseason.



You pretty much summed up my thoughts nicely without realizing it.

You're correct. We DO know what Carr is... and what he is is better than what Mayfield was in Baker's best season.

And we also know that Carr has never played with a high end running game or a high end offensive line, two things he'd absolutely have in Cleveland in 2022.

There's no chance that Carr could elevate his play with better pieces around him? Should the Browns gamble on Baker playing better than he did in 2020 without much evidence that is sure to happen?

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I mean is it possible for Carr to elevate a little? Sure but he’s not going to turn into mahomes or any top tier QB. He still has his faults with missing throws and fumbling the ball etc. but at this point he’s a finished product while Baker isn’t. There’s no question that Bakers arm talent is way better than Carrs. Basically by getting Carr you are lowering your ceiling at the QB position but also has a higher floor. To me personally Baker is worth the risk bc we have seen him play at Carr’s level for a good string of games, but he has the potential to be significantly better than Carr

CBBI said:

Running game and offensive line and offensive scheme aren’t supporting cast?

Because Carr’s never played in an offense with the Browns current ability to run the ball and current ability to pass block.

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oh they absolutely are, but my point is unless the browns spend significant resources (and they should) to upgrade the WR corps, the QB (Carr versus Baker) is going to be immaterial.

edit: and if the browns are spending significant resources on Wide reciever I am not sure how they would go about acquiring Carr

Bkerr02 said:

I mean is it possible for Carr to elevate a little? Sure but he’s not going to turn into mahomes or any top tier QB. He still has his faults with missing throws and fumbling the ball etc. but at this point he’s a finished product while Baker isn’t. There’s no question that Bakers arm talent is way better than Carrs. Basically by getting Carr you are lowering your ceiling at the QB position but also has a higher floor. To me personally Baker is worth the risk bc we have seen him play at Carr’s level for a good string of games, but he has the potential to be significantly better than Carr

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I just want to make sure I'm following your logic here.

Statistically the data tells us that Derek Carr in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has been working with less overall than Baker was working with in 2020. (Carr better pass catchers. Baker better running game, offensive line and scheme).

Statistically the data also tells us that Derek Carr, despite the overall disadvantages listed above, has produced at a small cut above in 19, 20 and 21 compared to Baker in 20.

But somehow you think that acquiring Carr, who has done a little more than Baker has done all the while working with a reasonable amount less, would somehow lower ceiling of the Browns?

How on earth does that make sense?

bob2the2nd said:

oh they absolutely are, but my point is unless the browns spend significant resources (and they should) to upgrade the WR corps, the QB (Carr versus Baker) is going to be immaterial.

edit: and if the browns are spending significant resources on Wide reciever I am not sure how they would go about acquiring Carr

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The Browns need to (and will) upgrade their WR group no matter who their QB is in 2022, so really your initial point that the Browns having a worse pass catching group than Las Vegas doesn't really mean anything because it's not going to be group they have in 2022.

What the Browns do have are two Pro Bowl RBs and four Pro Bowl OL. And those guys are all signed and ready to go for 2022.

The Browns can draft WRs anywhere. 2nd round. 3rd round. They can sign WRs in free agency. There may be 10 WRs who will be available in free agency in March who could step in and give them productive snaps.

The Browns traded a 4th round pick for Jarvis Landry 3 years ago.

It's not like QB. WRs are much easier to find.

CBBI said:

The Browns need to (and will) upgrade their WR group no matter who their QB is in 2022, so really your initial point that the Browns having a worse pass catching group than Las Vegas doesn't really mean anything because it's not going to be group they have in 2022.

What the Browns do have are two Pro Bowl RBs and four Pro Bowl OL. And those guys are all signed and ready to go for 2022.

The Browns can draft WRs anywhere. 2nd round. 3rd round. They can sign WRs in free agency. There may be 10 WRs who will be available in free agency in March who could step in and give them productive snaps.

The Browns traded a 4th round pick for Jarvis Landry 3 years ago.

It's not like QB. WRs are much easier to find.

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And they still haven’t recovered.

Insert shit eating grin here

CBBI said:

I just want to make sure I'm following your logic here.

Statistically the data tells us that Derek Carr in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has been working with less overall than Baker was working with in 2020. (Carr better pass catchers. Baker better running game, offensive line and scheme).

Statistically the data also tells us that Derek Carr, despite the overall disadvantages listed above, has produced at a small cut above in 19, 20 and 21 compared to Baker in 20.

But somehow you think that acquiring Carr, who has done a little more than Baker has done all the while working with a reasonable amount less, would somehow lower ceiling of the Browns?

How on earth does that make sense?

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It makes sense bc Carr is a finished product. The dude is almost 32 years old. He’s had a good o line and run game just 2 years ago. He has a solid RB in jacobs, a top 3 TE in the league, a very good slot receiver and some guys with speed on the outside. The guy has had 1 winning season in his career. Bakers potential is a lot higher than Carr’s on arm talent alone. As for great o line, Baker has had that exactly 1 time his entire career and that was last season. The line this year has been mediocre to good this year but obviously not great due to injuries. The fact you think Carr is magically going to turn into Tom Brady and have a huge boost in numbers and production, when in reality that is a pipe dream. He’s going to be the exact same QB.

I voted Russ in this thread but eh... something with the way he has been consistently crashing year after year as the season wears on is getting to me. Easily take the Russ upgrade over Baker if we can but if the choice is between Russ and serial sex offender Watson....

I mean I hate to say it and I 100% understand people who couldn't root for the team, but if we got Watson I could separate my love for the team and my disgust for an individual. And hope that he actually turns into a better person.

Bkerr02 said:

It makes sense bc Carr is a finished product. The dude is almost 32 years old. He’s had a good o line and run game just 2 years ago. He has a solid RB in jacobs, a top 3 TE in the league, a very good slot receiver and some guys with speed on the outside. The guy has had 1 winning season in his career. Bakers potential is a lot higher than Carr’s on arm talent alone. As for great o line, Baker has had that exactly 1 time his entire career and that was last season. The line this year has been mediocre to good this year but obviously not great due to injuries. The fact you think Carr is magically going to turn into Tom Brady and have a huge boost in numbers and production, when in reality that is a pipe dream. He’s going to be the exact same QB.

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Oh man where to begin...

When you say Carr is "almost 32" do you mean almost 32 as in he hasn't even turned 31 yet? Because he'll be 31 all of next season. Baker will be 27 all of next season. We're not talking about a 10+ year age gap here.

As far as "he has good OL and run game" - I already looked up the stats refuting this literally earlier in this thread.

The last three years the Raiders have ranked 18th, 24th and 28th in Team Rush DVOA. They've ranked 15th, 17th and 23rd in PFF Pass Blocking.

The Browns in that same time frame have ranked 7th and 2nd in Team Rush DVOA and 1st and 10th in PFF Pass Blocking.

I do agree Carr has had a better overall group of pass catches, but outside of Waller who is excellent, they certainly haven't had a dominant WR. Their group overall has been better based on Waller alone, but the 2020 Browns collective group of pass catchers top to bottom was certainly comparable to anything the Raiders have put out there the last three years.

The Browns OL is ranked 10th on PFF in pass blocking grade. They are ranked 3rd on ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate (Raiders are 22nd). They've played far better than you're suggesting, even with all the injuries and moving pieces.

I don't think Carr is going to turn into anything he's not. But considering he's been better for 3 years straight than Baker's best season while working with less than Baker has been working with overall, I'd be really interested to see much more he could do working with more.

Alec Zander said:

Sounds like Baker needs everything perfect for him to play like a top 15 QB on a given week. I’d rather just get a top 15 QB.

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Damn, sounds so simple. Why doesn't every team in the league just get a top 15 QB?

NtG said:

Damn, sounds so simple. Why doesn't every team in the league just get a top 15 QB?

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Most head coaches and general managers are too scared of losing their jobs to risk taking a step backwards at QB in an effort to better position themselves to take a step forward.

Until that changes, you'll keep seeing teams stubbornly sticking with what they have at QB even if they know for sure it's not good enough.

If you give a coach and GM two options

Option 1: You'll win 8 or 9 games with quarterback A, but you're unlikely to ever win more than that
Option 2: You might only win 5 or 6 games with quarterback B, but it will put you in a far better position to find quarterback C or even quarterback D who could win you 11-12 games or more.

They're almost always going to take Option 1 and pray for a combination of good fortune and "everything coming together" because that means short-term job security.