Evan Mobley: 2023 All Defensive 1st Team

Believe it’s Starbury

Here’s a concrete way to put it guys. Fully one-quarter / 25% of all Mobleys field goal attempts this year are dunks. Only ten percent of Garnett’s field goal attempts in his second year were dunks. (And Garnett still averaged almost three points per game more than Evan is so far this year).

It’s great that Evan is so skilled at dunking the basketball but Garnett had a broader range of offensive skills

Kouki said:

Kevin Garnett did not have Darius Garland spoonfeeding him oops for ~75% of his buckets. Any statistical comparison between the two especially when talking about SKILLSET really needs to take this into account. It is very easy to look up shot distribution and assisted FG%.

Being able to be in the right position and finish these opportunities is great but its a lot different than how KG got buckets.

Click to expand...

Percentage of 2 PT FG's assisted....

Garnett

Year 1- 73.7%
Year 2 - 73.6%

Mobley

Year 1 - 65.2%
Year 2- 73.7%

Garnett was a career 68.6% in this metric. Mobley's first two years is 68.5%.

Garnett didn't see a meaningful reduction in this stat until his 5th season in the league (63.8%).....and only broke 60% in 2 of his first 10 seasons.

Do you guys not look this stuff up before firing off takes or what?

cavsfever said:

Here’s a concrete way to put it guys. Fully one-quarter / 25% of all Mobleys field goal attempts this year are dunks. Only ten percent of Garnett’s field goal attempts in his second year were dunks. (And Garnett still averaged almost three points per game more than Evan is so far this year).

It’s great that Evan is so skilled at dunking the basketball but Garnett had a broader range of offensive skills

Click to expand...

I'm sure this is merely a function of the restricted circle and the fact that the game is nowhere as physical as it was when KG was a rookie.

Peacedog said:

Ever hear of a guy named Stephon Marbury? And did Garnett have anyone like Donovan Mitchell taking away his shot attempts?

Click to expand...

Well KG didn't have Steph his rookie season, a lot of comparisons have been made btwn rookie seasons.

I've gone into more detail in the past but kind of short-changed it there.

Pretty simple example, comparing season 2 vs. season 2 Mobley vs. KG.

62% of Mobley's made FG's are within 3 feet. 79% of those are assisted. So 49% of Mobley's TOTAL field goals made are assisted dunks/layups.

Compare to KG, 34% of his made FG's are within 3 feet, at 69% assisted (nice), so only 23% of his TOTAL field goals made are assisted dunks/layups.

Conversely if we look at two point field goals longer than 10 feet. Eg jump shots. For Mobley that only accounts for 11% of his made FG's, for KG it's 53%.

A lot of comparisons have also been made to Bosh as well, in that case it is a bit different in that Bosh's shot distribution was more similar to KG's, but his assisted FG% is way lower. Meaning he is creating his own offense.

Again, NOT taking away anything from Mobley. But just using box score stats to compare and project their scoring capabilities is a bit short-sighted IMO. It's so dependent on how the game has changed and the makeup of the team. I just don't think it's kosher to assume things like "If Mobley got more shots he'd outpace Bosh/KG".

Mobley is doing what he is tasked with doing INCREDIBLY well, I forget the exact metrics but I'm pretty sure someone posted that his conversions on dunks/layups/putbacks is actually historically good.

I'mWithDan said:

Percentage of 2 PT FG's assisted....

Garnett

Year 1- 73.7%
Year 2 - 73.6%

Mobley

Year 1 - 65.2%
Year 2- 73.7%

Garnett was a career 68.6% in this metric. Mobley's first two years is 68.5%.

Garnett didn't see a meaningful reduction in this stat until his 5th season in the league (63.8%).....and only broke 60% in 2 of his first 10 seasons.

Do you guys not look this stuff up before firing off takes or what?



I'm sure this is merely a function of the restricted circle and the fact that the game is nowhere as physical as it was when KG was a rookie.

Click to expand...

You beat me to it but see my above post. But I also have to fire back with "Do you even read my posts before firing takes" considering I very obviously implied we should be considering not only assisted FG%, but also shot type - "75% of his buckets are assisted oops"

(and in case it wasn't clear, 75% was hyperbole, completely pulled out of my ass. 35% of his made FG's are assisted dunks)

Kouki said:

You beat me to it but see my above post. But I also have to fire back with "Do you even read my posts before firing takes" considering I very obviously implied we should be considering not only assisted FG%, but also shot type - "75% of his buckets are assisted oops"

(and in case it wasn't clear, 75% was hyperbole, completely pulled out of my ass. 35% of his made FG's are assisted dunks)

Click to expand...

I would bet a good amount of money this is directly attributed to the circle area and the fact that landing space is protected and contact has more severely been levied out of the NBA, in favor of freedom of movement.

I have no doubt that KG would have been dunking a lot more in the modern game........but in 1996, when goons were still a thing and guys were getting thrown in to the second row......I can see why a skinny teenager would want to try to find other ways to score vs. subjecting himself to Rodman putting a foot in his ass every time he tried to go in the paint.

I'mWithDan said:

I would bet a good amount of money this is directly attributed to the circle area and the fact that landing space is protected and contact has more severely been levied out of the NBA, in favor of freedom of movement.

I have no doubt that KG would have been dunking a lot more in the modern game........but in 1996, when goons were still a thing and guys were getting thrown in to the second row......I can see why a skinny teenager would want to try to find other ways to score vs. subjecting himself to Rodman putting a foot in his ass every time he tried to go in the paint.

Click to expand...

Absolutely! And that's why I say I'm not taking anything away from Mobley, and it is so difficult to compare because of the differences in team makeup, evolution of the game, pace of play, etc etc etc. (I know you were using per 100 but I've seen others just use raw PPG).

I just think you have to make a lot of assumptions if you are projecting Mobley to be as talented of a scorer as some of the guys he is compared to. And of course he is still young and raw and there's absolutely a possibility, maybe even a good possibility, that he reaches that level of scoring talent. He just hasn't demonstrated it.

I'mWithDan said:

I would bet a good amount of money this is directly attributed to the circle area and the fact that landing space is protected and contact has more severely been levied out of the NBA, in favor of freedom of movement.

I have no doubt that KG would have been dunking a lot more in the modern game........but in 1996, when goons were still a thing and guys were getting thrown in to the second row......I can see why a skinny teenager would want to try to find other ways to score vs. subjecting himself to Rodman putting a foot in his ass every time he tried to go in the paint.

Click to expand...

In other words you are agreeing that it is a lot easier to score today than it was when Garnett was starting out, as several of us pointed out above, and therefore Garnett’s 17 ppg in his second year is a lot more impressive than Evans 14.5 ppg today. Glad you agree.

I’m not sure why you would want to put in a lot of effort to deny that Evan has a shitty jump shot and is a pretty raw offensive player when you get him outside of dunk/layup range. These things could not be more obvious both from his stats and from watching him.

cavsfever said:

Here’s a concrete way to put it guys. Fully one-quarter / 25% of all Mobleys field goal attempts this year are dunks. Only ten percent of Garnett’s field goal attempts in his second year were dunks. (And Garnett still averaged almost three points per game more than Evan is so far this year).

It’s great that Evan is so skilled at dunking the basketball but Garnett had a broader range of offensive skills

Click to expand...

No one here is arguing Mobley has KG’s offensive skills or likely to develop them in the future. It’s a straw man argument just to troll people. Now some people squint and see potential that “might” one day rise to KG level. But that is wishful thinking, not a Vegas betting line.

Kouki said:

Absolutely! And that's why I say I'm not taking anything away from Mobley, and it is so difficult to compare because of the differences in team makeup, evolution of the game, pace of play, etc etc etc. (I know you were using per 100 but I've seen others just use raw PPG).

I just think you have to make a lot of assumptions if you are projecting Mobley to be as talented of a scorer as some of the guys he is compared to. And of course he is still young and raw and there's absolutely a possibility, maybe even a good possibility, that he reaches that level of scoring talent. He just hasn't demonstrated it.

Click to expand...

To be honest, if you want to try to draw something from specific splits like this......which, it makes the samples sizes pretty small, so who knows what it means...... but the guy that is pretty similar when comparing rim attempts and attempts from 10-16 ish feet is actually AD. AD was even more extreme than Mobley in year one (46.9%) of his FGA were 0-3 feet......and then he year over year saw that number generally pull down as he extended his range. But if you watch young AD highlights, they are not dissimilar from Mobley. A lot of lob catching, a lot of time as the screener and roll man, put backs, etc.

It will be interesting to see how they manage trying to develop Mobley as a shooter. The big tactical issue is he's so damn effective as a screener in the P&R that you are lighting PPP on fire every time you have him do anything else, especially when Allen is out. For the sake of his long term development, I hope they realize this but in the short term, I'm sure his offensive growth is going to be far more incremental because we aren't really allowing him to do the things he needs to do to develop. I think that is what makes him a pretty interesting developmental case. That he's trying to acquire difficult skills to refine, while playing on a winning team AND being given fewer opportunities. I hope this type of internal dialog is happening in the FO / staff.......as at some point it will come to a head.

cavsfever said:

In other words you are agreeing that it is a lot easier to score today than it was when Garnett was starting out, as several of us pointed out above, and therefore Garnett’s 17 ppg in his second year is a lot more impressive than Evans 14.5 ppg today. Glad you agree.

I’m not sure why you would want to put in a lot of effort to deny that Evan has a shitty jump shot and is a pretty raw offensive player when you get him outside of dunk/layup range. These things could not be more obvious both from his stats and from watching him.

Click to expand...

I don't know that I would say it is easier to score, that is you making an assumption. I am speaking to why one player is willing to dunk more often vs another. Even without the contact, the athletic floor has been raised so much since 1996.....so scoring inside means doing so against less physical play by goonish defenders but certainly over far more length and athleticism. In 1996, it was more likely a less physical player like KG would have been leaning on shooting more often outside the rim area, by choice. It was also true that KG possessed length and athleticism that were almost wholly unique to 1996 as well.

The only argument to be made here, to me, is that Mobley wouldn't have adapted under similar circumstances......if that is the angle you choose to take. I think quantifying scoring ease is pretty difficult.....especially with something like at rim attempts. I would imagine there isn't statistical significance to any of it, over time. As the things that make scoring easier or tougher have changed (physical play vs. length / athleticism). But I have an open mind on the subject if anyone has some data on it.

I'mWithDan said:

To be honest, if you want to try to draw something from specific splits like this......which, it makes the samples sizes pretty small, so who knows what it means...... but the guy that is pretty similar when comparing rim attempts and attempts from 10-16 ish feet is actually AD. AD was even more extreme than Mobley in year one (46.9%) of his FGA were 0-3 feet......and then he year over year saw that number generally pull down as he extended his range. But if you watch young AD highlights, they are not dissimilar from Mobley. A lot of lob catching, a lot of time as the screener and roll man, put backs, etc.

It will be interesting to see how they manage trying to develop Mobley as a shooter. The big tactical issue is he's so damn effective as a screener in the P&R that you are lighting PPP on fire every time you have him do anything else, especially when Allen is out. For the sake of his long term development, I hope they realize this but in the short term, I'm sure his offensive growth is going to be far more incremental because we aren't really allowing him to do the things he needs to do to develop. I think that is what makes him a pretty interesting developmental case. That he's trying to acquire difficult skills to refine, while playing on a winning team AND being given fewer opportunities. I hope this type of internal dialog is happening in the FO / staff.......as at some point it will come to a head.

Click to expand...

Yep nothing I disagree with here. And yeah, sample size is inherently not great halfway through year 2.

It was a double-edged sword earlier in the season. I looked at these same stats - shot distribution, % assisted etc. IIRC his assist % was lower but that also aligned with lower FG% when shot distribution was taken into account. Eg. when he creates more of his own offense, which tended to be shooting outside of 3 feet, his efficiency suffered. And I think we can all agree the eye test wasn't great. Although opinions differ on allowing him the freedom to try out new things, more often than not it wasn't pretty (forcing awkward shots, dribbling off his foot, etc). On top of all that, the other variable was that he was coming off an injury.

(and frankly I'm getting sick of jumping between ESPN and basketball-reference to try to find things like TOV% etc etc so I'm going to leave it at that. I should probably get back to work.)

I didn't watch Garnett much until he was later in his career and was on the Celtics, and yeah he was on the downside of his career. He wasn't the leading scorer on that team, so maybe I am selling him short as I was less familiar with his game in the Western Conference.

Do people think he had this really deep bag? Duncan yeah, had like 15 ways to kill you. Garnett had one of the highest releases, sort of like Durant, where it was practically unguardable. It was his go to, he used it all the time, and most of his other shots were short jumpers near the rim, post moves, or dunks/layups.

His ability to finish around and through contact was really good and he had a post game, which Evan has his own good moves like his jump hook, and his step through.

Garnett was a good scorer and put up numbers, but nobody ever said, "He has a bag like Garnett". I always thought he was about execution. Get to your spots and knock it down. Opposing fans, "Why can't they stop him from getting that jumper." It was his release valve he had hit it a million times and he would just step to the side elevate and knock it down.

I think Dan's point about athleticism is well taken. In 96, there were very few guys with Garnett's athleticism at that size. Was there even one?

Mobley is unique, but we just saw JJJ and he has a lot of what Mobely has going for him, but is older and stronger.

I think Mobley is going to develop into a player that is something we haven't really seen before. There will be shades of this and that in him. He has Duncan's personality, something similar to KG/AD's frame, and what I think is the passing skill of Chris Webber, and whatever the opposite of CWebb's ultra unclutchness is. I dont expect him to turn into a giant 2 guard (JJJ) or a guy with a decent 3 ball and nothing else (Turner).

The jumper and ball handling to turn into a megawing would be fantastic as would an expanded post game. It would be great to get him a summer with Hakeem to just add some of that footwork or a summer with KAJ to get the easiest basket in NBA history. But to me, Mobley adding all of these things are just gravy. He already has a very promising toolkit that just needs to be refined with repetition and experience.

Ive posted before about how I think his biggest swing skill will be speeding up his decision making. When he just plays on his instincts, he makes some great decisions whether its interior passing, kicking out the ball on Orebs or resets, and even out of the short roll. I really wish we did more to weaponize his basketball IQ because he is really really good there. Maybe steal some sets from Sacto or Denver and have him in the Jokic/Saba role. The dude is just a basketball player and he is going to be really really good. Its gonna be exciting to watch him develop.

A lot of wishful thinking in here