Evan Mobley: 2023 All Defensive 1st Team

[Sebastian]

Watching Mobley's first couple seasons is like watching Garnett's first two seasons.

Except Mobley is a more polished offensive player.

Both have this instinctual gift for defense, and know where to be, combined with very unique athleticism. Already fantastic, but everyone could see they would become legendary defensive players.

But, both were still a work in progress physically.

Offensively, Garnett was more raw, but what they have in common is that you see them putting bits and pieces of a great offensive arsenal together. They have an IQ that was off the charts.

At some point it will all come together. Third year? Maybe fourth?

 

[cavsfever]

There really aren't many pieces left for Evan to put together:

• more respect from the refs. He should not get called on many of the fouls they call on him.. he gets a ton of "expected that to be a foul" calls imo.
• a little more range & consistency on his jumper
• cut back on the dribble-in-traffic-turnovers
• Add some muscle

Ummm, no. He’s got a long way to go in building up his offensive game. He doesn’t need “a little more range and consistency on his jumper”, he needs a jumper period. He shoots under 20% from 3 and basically has no midrange jumper. He’s not a very effective scorer outside of three feet.

His passing needs to improve too. His unimpressive assist to turnover ratio (about 1.3) has not improved from last year

Yet with all that he’s still a sort of effective offensive player if you squint. Imagine if he could put it all together!

 

[I'mWithDan]

Ummm, no. He’s got a long way to go in building up his offensive game. He doesn’t need “a little more range and consistency on his jumper”, he needs a jumper period. He shoots under 20% from 3 and basically has no midrange jumper. He’s not a very effective scorer outside of three feet.

PF Ranks:

Scoring - 12th
Rebounds - 5th
Assists - 13th
Blocks - 3rd
FG% - 7th

12th in scoring and 7th in FG% is a pretty great baseline for someone you think is a long way away on offense.

In a small sample, he's shown the ability to already step out and hit mid range shots....so not sure I agree with that comment. He's starting to take 3's more in game. I suspect it will ll come together shooting the ball.

His passing needs to improve too. His unimpressive assist to turnover ratio (about 1.3) has not improved from last year

Yet with all that he’s still a sort of effective offensive player if you squint. Imagine if he could put it all together!

Embiid is a good passer for a big.......his AST/TO ratio? 1.16. Bam? 1.07.

Relative to the role he plays in the offense, Mobley's AST/TO ratio is completely fine. I would imagine it would shift upward with more opportunity.

I also think this is a specifically empty stat (AST/TO) for Mobley, since a vast majority of his TO's come not from bad passes or bad decisions but from him needing to get stronger inside (which he will).

Yet with all that he’s still a sort of effective offensive player if you squint. Imagine if he could put it all together!

To call him "sort" of effective is disingenuous.

He's one of the most effective P&R players in the league, he converts his opportunities at the rim at an elite rate, he hits the offensive glass and Mobley is shooting 74% in clutch situations.

His offensive rating is up considerably, his OBPM is improved, his TS added and FG added are way up and his OWS has already surpassed his entire rookie season.

Last 5 games, where he has seen more opportunity:

11.2 FGA, 60.7% FG, 63.9% TS, 17 PTS, 9.2 REB, 1.6 BLK.

He's a 21 year old big who has not found it overly difficult to contribute on offense. The likelihood that he is a REALLY good offensive player, based on what we have already seen and know (historically), is exceptionally high.

Mobley is 76th in the NBA in scoring as a what? 4th option? He's achieved that taking the 97th most attempts. The other guys around him.....relative to attempts and scoring efficiency (10-11 FGA, 14-15+ PTS)? Sengun, Aaron Gordon, Jonas, Myles Turner and Nurkic.

I'm just trying to provide a bit more context here. He's producing offensively, at a level that only really productive offensive bigs produce at. Sengun, Aaron Gordon, Jonas, Myles Turner and Nurkic......with Mobley's defensive skill, that is a phenomenal offensive landing spot. Seeing him on that list as a 21 year old, that is still not yet strong enough and is still not yet being given a large enough opportunity share......the sky is the limit to me.

Maybe I am too optimistic on Mobely......but every time I watch him, I audibly say to myself "This guy is going to be so fucking good, jeez" 5-6 times a game. Then I come to this thread and just look around and feel pretty confused.

 

[bleedwineandgold03]

There really aren't many pieces left for Evan to put together:

• more respect from the refs. He should not get called on many of the fouls they call on him.. he gets a ton of "expected that to be a foul" calls imo.
• a little more range & consistency on his jumper
• cut back on the dribble-in-traffic-turnovers
• Add some muscle

Nba refs are thrash worst in professional sports and get ready for Mobley to have 3 fouls in 1 min since we playing golden boy tonight

 

[cavsfever]

PF Ranks:

Scoring - 12th
Rebounds - 5th
Assists - 13th
Blocks - 3rd
FG% - 7th

12th in scoring and 7th in FG% is a pretty great baseline for someone you think is a long way away on offense.

In a small sample, he's shown the ability to already step out and hit mid range shots....so not sure I agree with that comment. He's starting to take 3's more in game. I suspect it will ll come together shooting the ball.



Embiid is a good passer for a big.......his AST/TO ratio? 1.16. Bam? 1.07.

Relative to the role he plays in the offense, Mobley's AST/TO ratio is completely fine. I would imagine it would shift upward with more opportunity.

I also think this is a specifically empty stat (AST/TO) for Mobley, since a vast majority of his TO's come not from bad passes or bad decisions but from him needing to get stronger inside (which he will).



To call him "sort" of effective is disingenuous.

He's one of the most effective P&R players in the league, he converts his opportunities at the rim at a an elite rate, he hits the offensive glass and Mobley is shooting 74% in clutch situations.

His offensive rating is up considerably, his OBPM is improved, his TS added and FG added are way up and his OWS has already surpassed his entire rookie season.

Last 5 games, where he has seen more opportunity:

11.2 FGA, 60.7% FG, 63.9% TS, 17 PTS, 9.2 REB, 1.6 BLK.

He's a 21 year old big who has not found it overly difficult to contribute on offense. The likelihood that he is a REALLY good offensive player, based on what we have already seen and know (historically), is exceptionally high.

Mobley is 76th in the NBA in scoring as a what? 4th option? He's achieved that taking the 97th most attempts. The other guys around him.....relative to attempts and scoring efficiency (10-11 FGA, 14-15+ PTS)? Sengun, Aaron Gordon, Jonas, Myles Turner and Nurkic.

I'm just trying to provide a bit more context here. He's producing offensively, at a level that only really productive offensive big produce at. Sengun, Aaron Gordon, Jonas, Myles Turner and Nurkic......with Mobley's defensive skill, that is a phenomenal offensive landing spot. Seeing him on that list as a 21 year old, that is still not yet strong enough and is still not yet being given a large enough opportunity share......the sky is the limit to me.

Maybe I am too optimistic on Mobely......but every time I watch him, I audibly say to myself "This guy is going to be so fucking good, jeez" 5-6 times a game. Then I come to this thread and just look around and feel pretty confused.

This is a thoughtful response but you’re still kind of wishing away his lack of a jump shot. Not only is he shooting less than 20 percent from 3, he shoots under 40% between 10 and 16 feet and hardly ever shoots in the distances between 16 feet and the three point line (only like 15 FGA from there all season). Comparing him to a guy like Myles Turner is disingenuous - Turner takes only 55% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket while Mobley takes 75%, and Turner is still a more efficient shooter and scores almost 3 ppg more than Mobley does.

I take your point about assists and passing though, perhaps I’m too critical there, but to be a really good passer from that position he should still boost his total assists more. If we focused on giving him those opportunities I think he would get there.

He’s a very good opportunistic scorer and shows flashes of more but he’s got a long way to really be a guy you can go to to create shots.

Finally, people are “critical” of him on this thread not because anyone thinks he’s a bad player but because expectations are sky-high. When Duncan and Garnett comparisons are being thrown around from week one of your rookie year people aren’t going to then decide “hey he scores 14 ppg, awesome!” and just leave it at that

 

[Medina smoke]

Believe people biggest underestimation of Evan is his height and athleticism compared to his competitors. He is significantly height/wingspan Then most everyone in nba

 

[I'mWithDan]

This is a thoughtful response but you’re still kind of wishing away his lack of a jump shot. Not only is he shooting less than 20 percent from 3, he shoots under 40% between 10 and 16 feet and hardly ever shoots in the distances between 16 feet and the three point line (only like 15 FGA from there all season). Comparing him to a guy like Myles Turner is disingenuous - Turner takes only 55% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket while Mobley takes 75%, and Turner is still a more efficient shooter and scores almost 3 ppg more than Mobley does.

The point of that list wasn't a direct comparison to any single player. It was just to show that Mobley is one of 5-6 bigs in the league that can efficiently score well above league average at low shooting volume. That in itself is a very, very valuable skill and it is a skill that typically leads to wins as well. When you can have a peripheral offensive option, that converts limited opportunities at a high rate, it makes your offense harder to stop.

I think in a lot of these shooting discussions, people forget Mobley is 6'11". He has spent his whole life being around the basket. Getting comfortable handling the ball, shooting, passing in space takes time.....but he has shot 35% for his career from 16-22 feet on 80 attempts.......so it isn't like he is making zero jumpers elbow extended, etc. That isn't far off from someone like Porzingis, who has hovered around 40% from that range in his career. I think there are plenty of positives signs, relative to his size and inexperience taking shots from further away, that Mobley will develop in a capable shooter in time.

 

[cavsfever]

I certainly hope he does develop

One reason that people are “critical” is that his potential is so exciting. He’s scoring 14-15 ppg on good efficiency with basically no real ability to score outside of ten feet and frankly being pretty inefficient outside of three feet. He’s got almost 3 assists per game with no team effort to design an offensive strategy to develop him as a point forward. There’s a 20 ppg/4-5 assist per game offensive player locked somewhere inside this guy. The Mitchell trade was premised on that potential. So we’re all impatient, perhaps too impatient, to see it

I wish I felt like there was a clearer plan from the team to develop that offensive capability - not sure I can see that there is

 

[I'mWithDan]

I wish I felt like there was a clearer plan from the team to develop that offensive capability - not sure I can see that there is

Development curve:

1. Players that can't be great with good player development
2. Players that can be great with good player development
3. Players that can be great without good player development

To me, most players fall in those buckets......I think Mobley lands right on the line in-between 2/3.

I'd like to see him getting better developmental opportunities on offense......but I also think there's a world where it just may not matter. I just think he is that skilled. He has already figured out so much on the fly, that it would kind of be surprising if he didn't figure out how to continue accumulating offensive skill on the fly as well. Guess we'll see.

 

[PIP]

Watching Mobley's first couple seasons is like watching Garnett's first two seasons.

Except Mobley is a more polished offensive player.

Both have this instinctual gift for defense, and know where to be, combined with very unique athleticism. Already fantastic, but everyone could see they would become legendary defensive players.

But, both were still a work in progress physically.

Offensively, Garnett was more raw, but what they have in common is that you see them putting bits and pieces of a great offensive arsenal together. They have an IQ that was off the charts.

At some point it will all come together. Third year? Maybe fourth?

Actually Garnett was way more polished offensively and the same defensively.

Garnett’s footwork, high release, ability to post up were far superior from 95 to 97 (even made the all star team in Cleveland in year 2 and was the leader on a playoff team)… They brought him along a little slower cause of Gugilotta being there — but KG was a much more skilled offensive player at this stage.

Mobley is a a better passer currently and has just as high (if not higher IQ)— perhaps he’s better defensively due to how the game is played today, but early KG also had the ability to defend all 5 positions.

If I had to compare anyone from that era to what Mobley is now I would say Camby… Difference being Camby came in as a finished product basically and Mobley has so much more untapped potential…

But if you’re looking at 15pts 8 boards a couple blocks with a defensive presence and limited offensive game on the block— Camby’s the guy…

 

[I'mWithDan]

Actually Garnett was way more polished offensively and the same defensively.

Garnett’s footwork, high release, ability to post up were far superior from 95 to 97 (even made the all star team in Cleveland in year 2 and was the leader on a playoff team)… They brought him along a little slower cause of Gugilotta being there — but KG was a much more skilled offensive player at this stage.

Mobley is a a better passer currently and has just as high (if not higher IQ)— perhaps he’s better defensively due to how the game is played today, but early KG also had the ability to defend all 5 positions.

If I had to compare anyone from that era to what Mobley is now I would say Camby… Difference being Camby came in as a finished product basically and Mobley has so much more untapped potential…

But if you’re looking at 15pts 8 boards a couple blocks with a defensive presence and limited offensive game on the block— Camby’s the guy…

Camby scored 13 points or more 1 time in his NBA career.....that was his rookie season (at 22 years old).

He only was a double digit scorer in 9 of 17 NBA seasons.

Evan is approaching back to back 15 PPG seasons to start his career, on just 11.5 FGA per game.

Mobley's scoring baseline, relative to his opportunity is just so much higher than the Camby types of the world.

Early 20's bigs scoring 20+ PTS per 100 don't grow on trees and Evan has done that in successive seasons to start his career.

The big difference between Garnett and Mobley is that KG got consistently more volume year over year.

Per 100 - Kevin Garnett

Year 1 - 16.5 FGA
Year 2 - 19.4 FGA
Year 3- 20.8 FGA

Per 100 - Evan Mobley

Year 1 - 17.8 FGA
Year 2 - 15.6 FGA

Relative to how large that reduction is for Mobley, it is kind of incredible that his per 100 scoring metrics have dipped by less than 1 point. Just speaks to how he has increased his efficiency as an offensive player.

That, to me, is the big lingering question here........can Mobley develop inspite of his offensive role being marginalized? Or will his offensive growth be far more incremental because he's having to play with two scoring guards? But still approach an elite level for bigs?

Everything I have seen from Mobley tells me he'd score 20+ PPG if he saw the volume increase KG did. Maybe he would score those points differently and a little less esthetically pleasing........but all Evan's metric scream good offensive player, it will just be based on how the staff can maximize his opportunities on a team where the two starting guards suck up so much of the oxygen.

I'll go on record as saying if Evan Mobley's career more closely resembles Marcus Camby's than Kevin Garnett's, then that will be a massive organizational failure.

 

[PIP]

Right and I said he came in as a finished product and Mobley has so much more potential…I’m not suggesting he’s topping out as a Marcus Camby.

I’m literally referring to the production that he is giving…Evan Mobley is giving the Cavaliers some Marcus Camby like production currently… And that’s okay… He can and will be much more… I don’t think he’ll be a KG— but I also don’t believe he’ll be a Marcus Camby type going forward.

 

[cavsfever]

Actually Garnett was way more polished offensively and the same defensively.

Garnett’s footwork, high release, ability to post up were far superior from 95 to 97 (even made the all star team in Cleveland in year 2 and was the leader on a playoff team)… They brought him along a little slower cause of Gugilotta being there — but KG was a much more skilled offensive player at this stage.

Mobley is a a better passer currently and has just as high (if not higher IQ)— perhaps he’s better defensively due to how the game is played today, but early KG also had the ability to defend all 5 positions.

If I had to compare anyone from that era to what Mobley is now I would say Camby… Difference being Camby came in as a finished product basically and Mobley has so much more untapped potential…

But if you’re looking at 15pts 8 boards a couple blocks with a defensive presence and limited offensive game on the block— Camby’s the guy…

Thank you! Garnett was a far more polished offensive player in his first few seasons than Mobley is. In particular, he had a real jump shot from moment one pretty much. Garnett scored 17 ppg in his age 20 season back in a time when it was way more difficult to score in the NBA than it is today

 

[Kouki]

Kevin Garnett did not have Darius Garland spoonfeeding him oops for ~75% of his buckets. Any statistical comparison between the two especially when talking about SKILLSET really needs to take this into account. It is very easy to look up shot distribution and assisted FG%.

Being able to be in the right position and finish these opportunities is great but its a lot different than how KG got buckets.

 

[Peacedog]

Kevin Garnett did not have Darius Garland spoonfeeding him oops for ~75% of his buckets. Any statistical comparison between the two especially when talking about SKILLSET really needs to take this into account. It is very easy to look up shot distribution and assisted FG%.

Being able to be in the right position and finish these opportunities is great but its a lot different than how KG got buckets.

Ever hear of a guy named Stephon Marbury? And did Garnett have anyone like Donovan Mitchell taking away his shot attempts?