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To Take the Next Step,,,,,

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BigJ0526 said:
with regards to starting pitching, its not that hard to be better. just have any one of 5 or 6 prospects be better than plesac. Then, have everyone else repeat last season, including civale who was much better when he got consistent starts post injury.

I would think any trade of beiber would be for mlb talent and a top prospect, not all prospects.
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There is definitely the chance of overall rotation improvement, but they could also easily be worse if Bieber, McKenzie, or Quantrill have injuries. Those three basically made all their scheduled starts in 2022 which allowed us to survive the injuries to Civale and Plesac.
 
mopete12 said:
There is definitely the chance of overall rotation improvement, but they could also easily be worse if Bieber, McKenzie, or Quantrill have injuries. Those three basically made all their scheduled starts in 2022 which allowed us to survive the injuries to Civale and Plesac.
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Agreed that injuries are the bigger problem which is why a guy like Plesac is valuable. The gap between any of our #3-#5 pitchers isn't nearly as big as between our #5 and #6 pitcher. It's when we got into the Curry / Gaddis / Pilkington starts where things really looked sad. And we had enough of them even last year to where I'm hoping our depth (Morris / Curry / Gaddis, etc) can take a step up or get an emergence of Allen, Bibee, etc. I see Espino and Williams as being severely IP limited (more Espino) / too rough (more Williams) to really make a huge impact in 2023 but hopefully they can be there for 2024.
 
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We need Civale and Plesac to stay healthy and pitch better. The top three is great.

Civale and Plesac combined for 16 quality starts out of 44 last year. The top three starters each had 30-32 starts; Civale and Plesac averaged 22 each and went 8-18, although a lot of Plesac's losses were due to poor run support.

We need those two to start 50-55 games between them this year. Fangraphs has the Guardians' starters ranked 14th of 30 in xFIP and WAR.

Another option would be Cody Morris, who had an ERA- of 56 last year, opposed to Civale at 126 and Plesac at 112. Small sample for Cody but the number is really impressive. Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill were 74, 75, and 87, respectively.

Pilkington has a shot at stepping in if Civale or Plesac falter. Last year when batters faced him the first time they hit .220/.656; the second time .207/.626; the third time .407/1.108 (in 27 at-bats). Pilk is a guy who can get you through the batting order twice with minimal damage but then he's done.

So I'm saying the next step is getting more than 16 quality starts (in 44 tries) from Civale or Plesac, or failing that, get better performance from Morris and/or Pilkington or one of the other nine starters vying for a spot in the Columbus rotation.

The bullpen was great (2nd in xFIP) and they are all back except Shaw, who was the one poor performer. The offense will be better with Bell and Zunino plus having Gonzalez the entire season. The defense and base running were very good and are unchanged, just like the top three starters. The biggest issue last year was getting just 17 quality starts from our #4 and #5 starters all season (Morris had one).
 
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Wham with the Right Hand said:
We need Civale and Plesac to stay healthy and pitch better. The top three is great.

Civale and Plesac combined for 16 quality starts out of 44 last year. The top three starters each had 30-32 starts; Civale and Plesac averaged 22 each and went 8-18, although a lot of Plesac's losses were due to poor run support.

We need those two to start 50-55 games between them this year. Fangraphs has the Guardians' starters ranked 14th of 30 in xFIP and WAR.

Another option would be Cody Morris, who had an ERA- of 56 last year, opposed to Civale at 126 and Plesac at 112. Small sample for Cody but the number is really impressive. Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill were 74, 75, and 87, respectively.

Pilkington has a shot at stepping in if Civale or Plesac falter. Last year when batters faced him the first time they hit .220/.656; the second time .207/.626; the third time .407/1.108 (in 27 at-bats). Pilk is a guy who can get you through the batting order twice with minimal damage but then he's done.

So I'm saying the next step is getting more than 16 quality starts (in 44 tries) from Civale or Plesac, or failing that, get better performance from Morris and/or Pilkington or one of the other nine starters vying for a spot in the Columbus rotation.

The bullpen was great (2nd in xFIP) and they are all back except Shaw, who was the one poor performer. The offense will be better with Bell and Zunino plus having Gonzalez the entire season. The biggest issue last year was getting just 17 quality starts from our #4 and #5 starters all season (Morris had one).
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I disagree that this club needs Civale and Plesac to start 50-55 games this season. Honestly, especially in Plesac's case, Morris could very well already be an upgrade, while it shouldn't be too long before Espino, Williams, and Bibee are ready to break into the big leagues. Frankly, I'd be surprised if Plesac is still in the rotation by midseason, and Civale hasn't been able to consistently stay healthy since debuting in 2019.
 
Yeah I don't really think the back of the rotation (realistically) improving and staying healthy helps this team take "a step forward", if we're viewing losing in the ALDS as "the step" that the Guardians are currently on.

That kind of contribution would go a long way to helping the Guardians win the Central again, but don't think it raises their ceiling much once the postseason starts.
 
To take the next step....I look at it in two parts, Regular season and Post Season. The regular season...the next step for many on the team is simply to come close to repeating what they did in 2022. That is no small feat for any young player. We have seen far too many one season (or half-season) wonders fall flat the following season(s). Rotation-wise in the regular season, I would really like to see who can step up and be more of a FOR than a weak 3 (like Quantrill, yeah I view him as a weak 3 with his low K-rate and the new shift rules) or worse. Just one out of the pitchers (not named Bieber or Sticks) currently on the 40-man roster stepping up to be a solid pitcher every 5th day would be big step in preventing long losing streaks. As it is, the big advantage the Guards have is Francona. He will drive me to explosions of vulgar language with his lineup decisions and tactical in-game decisions, but there is no finer manager navigating his club through the 162.

To take the next step in the postseason....that's a tough one because of the randomness/small sample size type of stuff. If the Guards are getting some depth of lineup improvements (catcher, CF, DH) and, again, that 3rd pitcher who can perform more like a front of the rotation type of pitcher, then anything is possible come November :cool:
 
Urban said:
Yeah I don't really think the back of the rotation (realistically) improving and staying healthy helps this team take "a step forward", if we're viewing losing in the ALDS as "the step" that the Guardians are currently on.
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We lost Game 5 to the Yankees because we had to start Civale. We were 4-2 against Tampa and New York with our 1-3 starting.

If we could finish with one of the two best regular season records we could get a first round bye and never have to use our 4th starter until the A.L. Championship. But it will be very difficult to finish with a better record than Houston or New York.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
We lost Game 5 to the Yankees because we had to start Civale. We were 4-2 against Tampa and New York with our 1-3 starting.

If we could finish with one of the two best regular season records we could get a first round bye and never have to use our 4th starter until the A.L. Championship. But it will be very difficult to finish with a better record than Houston or New York.
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I'm hoping that come October, one of Espino, Williams, Bibee is joining our top 3.
 
I believe we would have taken the "next step" last year if we had someone better than Civale as our 4th starter. IMO that's still the top need for postseason success. He's fine for the regular season, but I won't trust him in the playoffs.
 
Kevalier said:
I disagree that this club needs Civale and Plesac to start 50-55 games this season. Honestly, especially in Plesac's case, Morris could very well already be an upgrade, while it shouldn't be too long before Espino, Williams, and Bibee are ready to break into the big leagues. Frankly, I'd be surprised if Plesac is still in the rotation by midseason, and Civale hasn't been able to consistently stay healthy since debuting in 2019.
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Let's not forget that Pilkington threw over 50 innings of 3.88 ball. Yes, he needs to walk fewer, but is there reason to think that his control won't improve even if only slightly? It's going to be interesting to see what happens or if anything at all happens. Regardless, I have total confidence that any/all of Morris, Pilkington and even Battenfield can provide what Plesac can or better should they need to.
 
To "take the next step" I think that this offense needs to be able to take advantage of the few mistakes made by pitchers on WS contending teams. The good news is that I think that is a natural progression for many of our young players(hopefullly) and we've added Bell.

Pitching wise all we need is for the likes of Morris, Bibee and Williams to stay on their current trajectory and for the rest of the staff to stay healthy. There will probably be an injury or 2, but there should be a surprise or 2 as well. If I had to pick a couple of surprises it would be Pilkington and Battenfield. I think a lot of folks have written Battenfield off because he wasn't added to the 40 man without understanding the context. I also think that Pilkington is better than many of us realize too. It's gonna be fun watching these guys find their niches.
 
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