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2023 Season | Series #38 | Guardians @ Rays | Aug. 11-13, 2023

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CBBI said:
Oh I mean sure. Bullpens are notoriously fickle from year to year. But even the most pessimistic person around here couldn't have predicted this extreme level of drop off.

Clase: 1.36 ERA to 3.21 ERA
Stephan: 2.68 ERA to 2.98 ERA
Karinchak: 2.08 ERA to 3.90 ERA and demoted to the minors
Hentges: 2.32 ERA to 5.74 ERA and clearly also would have been demoted to the minors if he had any options left
Sandlin: 2.25 ERA to 3.65 ERA

Asking these guys to replicate what they did last year admittedly is a tall task. But these guys outside of Stephan (who's actually also pitched much worse than his ERA would indicate) have all basically regressed severely more than slightly.

With 5 fewer blown saves, they're in first place right now, ya know?
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Every ERA outside of Hentges' is still pretty damn good which is a perfect example of what can realistically can be expected from a BP. If you're using last season's ERAs as the standard then you are going to be disappointed 8 out of 10 times at least. It's not a tall task. It's just about f'ing impossible.

You didn't list Morgan's ERA which is pretty much identical and you didn't list Curry's 3.39 ERA. Karinchak isn't even pitching in Cleveland. DLS has been incredibly consistent.

From last season to this season we lost 5 points in BA, 4 point in OBP, 4 points in SLGand 8 points in OPS as a team. Our average runs/game is down. We were 29th in HR last season. This season we're 30th by a wide margin.

This season's failures is pretty evenly spread between poor SP early in the season, an inconsistent BP, poorer defense and a weaker offense than we had last season.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
TBH, I've been pleasantly surprised with what Thor has done here since coming back from injury. Right now, I would see him and Quantrill as about a wash. But you're right about the G's outlook could change. The young SS's will have seen more MLB pitchers. The OF may settle down with Laureano. The bullpen will be less overworked.
It's ironic, but by the end of the season, the G's may be the best team in the AL Central. But they probably won't win the division.
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I've been more surprised by Syndergaard's results then his performance. It seems like he's walking a very thin line. I'm hoping they discover something mechanically and/or mentally and he can regain some of his form. I don't think he has to throw 98 to be a very good SP either. Just a fraction of his former self makes him a good ML SP and would probably allow him to remain healthy. I'm pulling for him.
 
Real Deal said:
Our schedule isn't pretty and teams that are fighting for positioning will be gunning to kick our ass. Winning the division is insurmountable when you factor in Twins closing their year out with 4 vs CWS, 3 vs LAA, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs COL, and that's not counting the 6 vs us which will be huge regardless.

And with the way our year is going, we could go 5-1 vs Twins in that stretch and still be 5 out.
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The Twins just got curbstompped by the Royals and Tigers.

In it to win it baby!
 
CDAV45 said:
I've been more surprised by Syndergaard's results then his performance. It seems like he's walking a very thin line. I'm hoping they discover something mechanically and/or mentally and he can regain some of his form. I don't think he has to throw 98 to be a very good SP either. Just a fraction of his former self makes him a good ML SP and would probably allow him to remain healthy. I'm pulling for him.
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...that thin line seems to be in the kinds of LOUD outs he's giving up.. a LOT of them.. Given the rest of the season.. if the hard hit rates and loud outs diminish.. it's a pretty good likelihood that the Cleveland pitching factory is "tweaking" Thor's repertoire.. A few more and more breaking balls starting on the plate but ultimately are not strikes.. seems to be the first thing he's changed from his first outing with the Guardians.. We'll see..
 
CBBI said:
Oh I mean sure. Bullpens are notoriously fickle from year to year. But even the most pessimistic person around here couldn't have predicted this extreme level of drop off.

Clase: 1.36 ERA to 3.21 ERA
Stephan: 2.68 ERA to 2.98 ERA
Karinchak: 2.08 ERA to 3.90 ERA and demoted to the minors
Hentges: 2.32 ERA to 5.74 ERA and clearly also would have been demoted to the minors if he had any options left
Sandlin: 2.25 ERA to 3.65 ERA

Asking these guys to replicate what they did last year admittedly is a tall task. But these guys outside of Stephan (who's actually also pitched much worse than his ERA would indicate) have all basically regressed severely more than slightly.

With 5 fewer blown saves, they're in first place right now, ya know?
Click to expand...
Yeah, those are our top five relievers from last year. Who expected ALL of them to have worse seasons? Given the youth of all of them it appeared they were still on an upward trajectory.

Combine that with the injuries to Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill plus the major disappointments by Bell and Zunino and you pretty much have it. The regression by Gimenez and Oscar tanking and getting sent down completes the picture.

But you also have the emergence of Williams, Bibee, and Allen along with Josh Naylor emerging as one of the most productive hitters in the A.L., and Bo Naylor, Arias, Rocchio, and Freeman getting some major league experience. We also picked up Brito and Manzardo, both of which could be major contributors down the road.

I'm pretty jacked about next year, especially if McKenzie returns at 100% and we get something good for Bieber.
 
With Josh Jung going on the IL and Gunnar seemingly plateauing.. today's Bibee outing could go a LONG way toward AL ROY consideration.. a LONG WAY, indeed..
 
The Rays are resting Wander Franco today. Yandy is 5-for-9; let's see if Bibee can get him out. Hint: he hits to right field. Stop playing him to pull.

Bo is back at catcher and Tena is in at short for Rocchio. Laureano is in center for Straw. Brennan in right, Arias at third.
 
Gson said:
wtf are babbling about now??????
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I am the only one who has stated to get more RP help, so that comment could have only been meant towards me on paper...
 
CDAV45 said:
Every ERA outside of Hentges' is still pretty damn good which is a perfect example of what can realistically can be expected from a BP. If you're using last season's ERAs as the standard then you are going to be disappointed 8 out of 10 times at least. It's not a tall task. It's just about f'ing impossible.

You didn't list Morgan's ERA which is pretty much identical and you didn't list Curry's 3.39 ERA. Karinchak isn't even pitching in Cleveland. DLS has been incredibly consistent.

From last season to this season we lost 5 points in BA, 4 point in OBP, 4 points in SLGand 8 points in OPS as a team. Our average runs/game is down. We were 29th in HR last season. This season we're 30th by a wide margin.

This season's failures is pretty evenly spread between poor SP early in the season, an inconsistent BP, poorer defense and a weaker offense than we had last season.
Click to expand...

Neither Morgan nor De Los Santos pitched very often in high leverage situations last year, which is why I didn't list them. Neither of them have really pitched much in high leverage situations this year either for that matter. They tried DLS briefly in the 8th inning and he got bombed and they went away from it quickly.

It's the same thing for Curry. Yes, he's been good as a long man, but the vast majority of his outings until recently when he was moved back into the rotation were nothing more than inning eating situations when the team was already losing.

Their ERAs are mostly irrelevant to the discussion at hand (the Guardians significant bullpen regression in high leverage) because all three of those guys primarily pitched both last year and this year in low leverage situations where they team is already trailing.

The guys I listed were the primary guys who pitched when the Guardians had the lead last year and they all assumed the same places in the pecking order to begin this year.

What I'm saying to you is that even with those offensive regressions and the starting pitching injuries, just a moderately better effort from the high leverage part of the bullpen and the Guardians are in first place.
 
CBBI said:
Neither Morgan nor De Los Santos pitched very often in high leverage situations last year, which is why I didn't list them. Neither of them have really pitched much in high leverage situations this year either for that matter. They tried DLS briefly in the 8th inning and he got bombed and they went away from it quickly.

It's the same thing for Curry. Yes, he's been good as a long man, but the vast majority of his outings until recently when he was moved back into the rotation were nothing more than inning eating situations when the team was already losing.

Their ERAs are mostly irrelevant to the discussion at hand (the Guardians significant bullpen regression in high leverage) because all three of those guys primarily pitched both last year and this year in low leverage situations where they team is already trailing.

The guys I listed were the primary guys who pitched when the Guardians had the lead last year and they all assumed the same places in the pecking order to begin this year.

What I'm saying to you is that even with those offensive regressions and the starting pitching injuries, just a moderately better effort from the high leverage part of the bullpen and the Guardians are in first place.
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I understand perfectly what you're saying to me and my response is that last year's performances(high leverage or otherwise) is and will be very difficult to duplicate for any team. A game can be lost in the 6th or 7th inning just as easily as the 8th or 9th. They've still been pretty good and their slight regression as a group is highlighted/emphasized by regression in other areas. I see continuous comments in the game threads about the BP and some of them are warranted even if hot takes, but the sole responsibility of this season's failures does not fall on the BP. I don't even think a larger share is the BP's responsibility when you look out how our BP ranks compared to how our offense ranks. This offense has been shit. Especially if they're down late in the game. The only hope we have being down late in the game is if we can get Jose or Josh up to bat. Hopefully that changes through next season.

Taking a quick peak at DLS' IP, he did not get "bombed" in the 8th inning. He did have 1 bad outing against Boston on June 6 that have skewed his numbers. Until that game he had a 1.96 ERA. He's pitched damn near as many innings this season already as he did last. 53.1 IP last season and 49.1 this season in 44 fewer games. At times DLS has been a rock in this BP.
 
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