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After managing a 2-2 series split with the Blue Jays despite scoring only six runs, the Guardians head to Florida for a weekend series with the Rays, who come in with an impressive record of 69-48. That's a little misleading, however, as the Rays started 32-11 and have gone 37-37 since. They have been a mediocre team in their last 74 games.
However, the Rays are very good at home (38-21) and are 18-5 against the A.L. Central. They have been treading water lately with a record of 11-13 since the break. They have not been hitting that well, averaging 4.1 runs per game over those 24 games.
The Guardians will send Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee to the mound on Saturday and Sunday. Those guys have been incredible recently and Tampa is not scoring a lot of runs right now, so we could be in for another series similar to the one just played against Toronto, which ended in a 7-6 cumulative score in four games. I think runs will be tough to come by on both sides. Since the All-Star break the Guardians' starters are second in the majors in ERA.
If somebody told me before the season that the Guardians' starters would be 2nd in ERA in the first 26 games after the break without Bieber, McKenzie, or Quantrill I would have been blown away.
The most interesting matchup will be tonight as Xzavion Curry, who is being transitioned back to a starter, faces Aaron Civale. Curry was stretched out to five innings in his last start where he held the White Sox to two runs. His ERA for the season is 2.95 and when he starts games opponents are hitting .170/.634 off him, although Tito hasn't let him go more than three innings until his last start. He was up to 65 pitches against the White Sox.
Civale got off to a rocky start with the Rays, allowing 9 hits and 3 runs in 4.1 innings against the Tigers. For the season he has a 2.55 ERA and opponents are hitting .222/.606 against him. Obviously the Guardians are very familiar with his tendencies and he is very familiar with their hitters, or at least those who weren't in the minor leagues last week.
Gavin Williams goes against an unnamed starter tomorrow, but it appears they will start Tyler Glasnow, who is 5-3, 3.15 in 12 starts. He was out until late May but has pitched very well since returning.
Sunday's matchup will feature two starters with ace potential in Bibee and Zach Elfin, who is 12-6 with a 3.34 ERA. At least the Guardians won't face any left-handed starters this series so they may be able to scrape a few runs together.
Wander Franco is the Rays' star. His WAR so far is 5.2; the next closest Ray is Yandy Diaz at 3.4. Yandy is having a tremendous season, hitting .317/.901 at age 32. He's hitting .344 at home with an OBP of .417. I'm looking forward to seeing him against Williams and Bibee. Yandy is four points behind Bo Bichette in the race for the batting title. Franco is hitting .279/.814.
The Rays have eight players who have hit between 14-23 home runs, so their entire batting order can take you deep on a mistake. They rank 4th in home runs per game, averaging 1.4 at home. The key will be avoiding the long ball.
From the start of the season until May 16 when their record was 32-11, the Rays averaged 6.2 runs per game. Over the last 74 games they averaged 4.5 runs per game. And since the All-Star break they're at 4.1. They hit lefties and righties equally. Obviously they haven't seen any of our starters this series, not a single at-bat, so that could play to our advantage.
The Rays' pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so runs will be hard to come by. Shane McClanahan is out and they have 5-6 other pitchers on the IL, so they were willing to give up one of their top prospects for Civale. I hope it works out for them and for Aaron, but just not tonight.
However, the Rays are very good at home (38-21) and are 18-5 against the A.L. Central. They have been treading water lately with a record of 11-13 since the break. They have not been hitting that well, averaging 4.1 runs per game over those 24 games.
The Guardians will send Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee to the mound on Saturday and Sunday. Those guys have been incredible recently and Tampa is not scoring a lot of runs right now, so we could be in for another series similar to the one just played against Toronto, which ended in a 7-6 cumulative score in four games. I think runs will be tough to come by on both sides. Since the All-Star break the Guardians' starters are second in the majors in ERA.
If somebody told me before the season that the Guardians' starters would be 2nd in ERA in the first 26 games after the break without Bieber, McKenzie, or Quantrill I would have been blown away.
The most interesting matchup will be tonight as Xzavion Curry, who is being transitioned back to a starter, faces Aaron Civale. Curry was stretched out to five innings in his last start where he held the White Sox to two runs. His ERA for the season is 2.95 and when he starts games opponents are hitting .170/.634 off him, although Tito hasn't let him go more than three innings until his last start. He was up to 65 pitches against the White Sox.
Civale got off to a rocky start with the Rays, allowing 9 hits and 3 runs in 4.1 innings against the Tigers. For the season he has a 2.55 ERA and opponents are hitting .222/.606 against him. Obviously the Guardians are very familiar with his tendencies and he is very familiar with their hitters, or at least those who weren't in the minor leagues last week.
Gavin Williams goes against an unnamed starter tomorrow, but it appears they will start Tyler Glasnow, who is 5-3, 3.15 in 12 starts. He was out until late May but has pitched very well since returning.
Sunday's matchup will feature two starters with ace potential in Bibee and Zach Elfin, who is 12-6 with a 3.34 ERA. At least the Guardians won't face any left-handed starters this series so they may be able to scrape a few runs together.
Wander Franco is the Rays' star. His WAR so far is 5.2; the next closest Ray is Yandy Diaz at 3.4. Yandy is having a tremendous season, hitting .317/.901 at age 32. He's hitting .344 at home with an OBP of .417. I'm looking forward to seeing him against Williams and Bibee. Yandy is four points behind Bo Bichette in the race for the batting title. Franco is hitting .279/.814.
The Rays have eight players who have hit between 14-23 home runs, so their entire batting order can take you deep on a mistake. They rank 4th in home runs per game, averaging 1.4 at home. The key will be avoiding the long ball.
From the start of the season until May 16 when their record was 32-11, the Rays averaged 6.2 runs per game. Over the last 74 games they averaged 4.5 runs per game. And since the All-Star break they're at 4.1. They hit lefties and righties equally. Obviously they haven't seen any of our starters this series, not a single at-bat, so that could play to our advantage.
The Rays' pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so runs will be hard to come by. Shane McClanahan is out and they have 5-6 other pitchers on the IL, so they were willing to give up one of their top prospects for Civale. I hope it works out for them and for Aaron, but just not tonight.
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