2021 NBA Draft Safari

Ozone said:

Yeah that is probably why someone like Davion Mitchell and Juzang? are getting top 20 attention. It matters, but more than it should probably.

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Yeah, but Garuba's 19, and it's not like he came out of nowhere. He's been on the NBA radar since 2016 if not earlier. He was widely considered a mid first round prospect even when he was just playing limited bench minutes earlier this season...now he's raising his game when it matters, and it only makes sense for his draft stock to follow suit.

Nathan S said:

Yeah, but Garuba's 19, and it's not like he came out of nowhere. He's been on the NBA radar since 2016 if not earlier. He was widely considered a mid first round prospect even when he was just playing limited bench minutes earlier this season...now he's raising his game when it matters, and it only makes sense for his draft stock to follow suit.

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If a player has a ranking within league personnel circles based on their projections of his personal ceiling, does his ranking necessarily go up simply because he begins to put together some games that hits that projected ceiling?

If NBA personnel who did have him at say the 13-20 range previously because they thought he could eventually play the way he’s playing in today’s game for example watch his recent games, is he actually going to move up on their boards or just stay in the same spot as he’s confirming the projection they had that made them see him as a 13-20 range prospect in the first place?

Perhaps what a game like today affects is the teams who had him slotted in the late first, early second and now as they see this production that other teams had believed was projectable, they also move him into that 13-20 range? Of course all it takes is one team to believe in a player even higher than the consensus so who knows.

This question/hypothetical is really aimed at all the prospects. Just using Garuba since that’s who’s being discussed today,

Nathan S said:

Yeah, but Garuba's 19, and it's not like he came out of nowhere. He's been on the NBA radar since 2016 if not earlier. He was widely considered a mid first round prospect even when he was just playing limited bench minutes earlier this season...now he's raising his game when it matters, and it only makes sense for his draft stock to follow suit.

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Sure age factors, I just don't think recency proof of success does much to tip the scales, on a overall evaluation level. I don't hold it against Suggs for losing the championship in the tournament, to older currently better guards, in Mitchell and Butler, but I also don't ignore the fact that proved to some not paying attention previously, the Baylor duo are going to both be considerations as immediate help regardless of age as high as 10th overall. Not sure Garuba is that much better of a player long term than say Jackson or Sharpe but those 3's might have him leap past both.

MirORich said:

If a player has a ranking within league personnel circles based on their projections of his personal ceiling, does his ranking necessarily go up simply because he begins to put together some games that hits that projected ceiling?

If NBA personnel who did have him at say the 13-20 range previously because they thought he could eventually play the way he’s playing in today’s game for example watch his recent games, is he actually going to move up on their boards or just stay in the same spot as he’s confirming the projection they had that made them see him as a 13-20 range prospect in the first place?

Perhaps what a game like today affects is the teams who had him slotted in the late first, early second and now as they see this production that other teams had believed was projectable, they also move him into that 13-20 range? Of course all it takes is one team to believe in a player even higher than the consensus so who knows.

This question/hypothetical is really aimed at all the prospects. Just using Garuba since that’s who’s being discussed today,

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IMO, you have to be willing to reassess a player's ceiling in cases like this. If in January you thought Garuba would reach this level in five years, and instead he reached this level in five months, then that massively changes his trajectory as a prospect. Rewind 6 months, and this was my take on the international class:

Nathan S said:

Are there any prospects worth watching in internationally? Garuba and Badji haven't developed at all since last year. Jokubaitis and Prkačin are kinda fun but realistically seem like late 20's picks at the very best. I can't remember the last time there was such a total lack of international talent.

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Then Sengun came out of nowhere, Giddey started posting triple doubles, Prkacin had his crazy 38/10 and 29/15/9 games, and now Garuba's playing like a star. So I had to make some serious changes to my board, which at one point would've featured no international prospects in the top-20.

Just for comparison, Doncic's best stat lines in playoff games were 17/4/5, 14/7/7, and 20/9/3. Garuba has now had games of 24/12 and 16/14. Different kind of player, obviously, but it's incredible that his production against this extremely high level of competition is on the same order of magnitude as Doncic, who I consider to be the best prospect of all time. I don't think any teenage Euro big has enjoyed this level of playoff success. I certainly didn't see it coming.

Nathan S said:

IMO, you have to be willing to reassess a player's ceiling in cases like this. If in January you thought Garuba would reach this level in five years, and instead he reached this level in five months, then that massively changes his trajectory as a prospect. Rewind 6 months, and this was my take on the international class:

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I agree that you should always be willing to re-assess but I would imagine that there are some teams who in their projections for him or another player already envisioned games like this when calculating what they think his ceiling is. And that they’re most concerned with long term ceiling being reached, not whether it’s reached in 3 years or 5 years.

So I think these games could cause some teams to raise what they believe his ceiling to be and other teams to simply feel reinforced and better about their initial assessment

MirORich said:

I agree that you should always be willing to re-assess but I would imagine that there are some teams who in their projections for him or another player already envisioned games like this when calculating what they think his ceiling is. And that they’re most concerned with long term ceiling being reached, not whether it’s reached in 3 years or 5 years.

So I think these games could cause some teams to raise what they believe his ceiling to be and other teams to simply feel reinforced and better about their initial assessment

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Yeah, to me, his ascent in the last few months is just remarkable. From limited-minutes roleplayer on an elite Euro team (yeah, whatever, worth a mid-late first rounder) to being arguably best player on an elite Euro team in the playoffs (nearly unprecedented for a player his age). Still have to weigh it against his fairly "meh" regular season, but he certainly got my attention, and I'm sure he's got NBA front offices buzzing too. Not on Doncic's level, but he's looking more and more like a worthy successor to Doncic's legacy at Real.

Garuba definitely hasn't hurt his stock recently, he been great. I still think teams will be hesitant to gamble on him in the top 8. He is a great pick for a team that already has offensive production at multiple spots as it allows him to come in as a role player and then grow without pressure

Adam said:

Garuba definitely hasn't hurt his stock recently, he been great. I still think teams will be hesitant to gamble on him in the top 8. He is a great pick for a team that already has offensive production at multiple spots as it allows him to come in as a role player and then grow without pressure

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I will start with the confession that I only started watching highlights of this guy last night but I think you are loooking at this totally wrong. You used the word gamble. What kind of gamble is it to pick the 19 year old best player on the best team in the second best hoops league in the world and who would ace the athletic testing. That is no gamble! Sounds more like a slam dunk. What about pressure? The guy right now is playing a league with much more pressure than there would be if he was playing for a middling NCAA team or the G league Ignite in a bubble. I would imagine he is in play all the way up to 2.

catfish said:

I will start with the confession that I only started watching highlights of this guy last night but I think you are loooking at this totally wrong. You used the word gamble. What kind of gamble is it to pick the 19 year old best player on the best team in the second best hoops league in the world and who would ace the athletic testing. That is no gamble! Sounds more like a slam dunk. What about pressure? The guy right now is playing a league with much more pressure than there would be if he was playing for a middling NCAA team or the G league Ignite in a bubble. I would imagine he is in play all the way up to 2.

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Partly agree with this.

What makes him an easy, low-risk pick is that (as you point out) he's more than holding his own against the best competition in Europe at age 19. Players who do that don't bust...it just never happens. Worst case outcome is something like Rubio, where he's immediately waylaid by injuries and is "only" a top-10-ish player in his class. And on defense, he's spectacular, without a doubt the most NBA-ready defensive player in the draft, with all the tools he needs to be one of the best in the league. Another really important point is that he's producing under pressure. With COVID limiting crowd capacities he's not getting quite the trial-by-fire Doncic got, but still, he's playing his very best basketball in clutch time of the biggest games of the season. Even if he's not the face of the franchise, he's precisely the type of player a championship contender wants to have on the court with the game on the line.

What makes him a more difficult evaluation than Doncic is that he's not been, for the most part, the best player on Real Madrid, or even close. For much of the season he was the 9th or 10th man in the rotation. The other issue is that he's very much a defensive-minded prospect. Even in games when he's among the team's leading scorers, he's not really the engine of the offense, he's just doing a good job cashing in on scoring opportunities created by his teammates. Probably 90% of his scoring in the halfcourt comes off assists or offensive rebounds. In the NBA, great offensive players are more valuable than great defensive players, and it's hard to see him being a great offensive player.

Nathan S said:

Yeah, to me, his ascent in the last few months is just remarkable. From limited-minutes roleplayer on an elite Euro team (yeah, whatever, worth a mid-late first rounder) to being arguably best player on an elite Euro team in the playoffs (nearly unprecedented for a player his age). Still have to weigh it against his fairly "meh" regular season, but he certainly got my attention, and I'm sure he's got NBA front offices buzzing too. Not on Doncic's level, but he's looking more and more like a worthy successor to Doncic's legacy at Real.

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I just wasted 15 minutes cutting and pasting Sengun's and Garuba's heads on the boyfriend looking back meme pic and can't fucking figure out how to get it to properly show up here. I'm so defeated. And old.

narbar32 said:

I just wasted 15 minutes cutting and pasting Sengun's and Garuba's heads on the boyfriend looking back meme pic and can't fucking figure out how to get it to properly show up here. I'm so defeated. And old.

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If it consoles you I did the same last night trying to figure out how I can make Mo Bamba's face smaller than it is on his head without Photoshop. I failed miserably and went to bed.

Muffinalt said:

If it consoles you I did the same last night trying to figure out how I can make Mo Bamba's face smaller than it is on his head without Photoshop. I failed miserably and went to bed.

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Maybe that's less about your technological skills and more due to the fact that Mo's face is already literally as small as it could possibly be. Don't beat yourself up over not being able to split an atom.

Is it spicy to say I have Garuba clearly in my top 10? I think he might be at 8 for me (after cade Mobley green kuminga sengun barnes suggs) and I would seriously consider trading down from green/suggs for him.

narbar32 said:

Maybe that's less about your technological skills and more due to the fact that Mo's face is already literally as small as it could possibly be. Don't beat yourself up over not being able to split an atom.

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Hahaha touche.