A solid article wrapping up the 2009 free agency picture, written on 2/27/09:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?STORY_ID=11764
Summer of 2009: Now that the trade deadline has passed, the summer of 2009 is coming into greater focus. A number of impact free agents could be available including Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Carlos Boozer, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu, Ben Gordon, Mike Bibby, David Lee, Paul Millsap and Andre Miller. The list goes on but there is a catch that could complicate matters. The salary cap, which typically climbs each and every year, is projected to drop from $58.68 million to approximately $57.3 million. The following is breakdown of each team capable of creating cap room without needing a trade to open space:
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks have significant free agents to worry about in Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams and Josh Childress. Both Williams and Childress are restricted; Childress has spent the year overseas. If Atlanta waived the rights to all three - in addition to Zaza Pachulia, Flip Murray and the like - the team might be able to get to roughly $13-14.6 million under the cap. Where their first round pick falls sets the range, although the team can always try and draft a European player and stash them overseas for a year - or flat out trade the pick.
One option might be to bring Bibby and Williams at reasonable rates and then use the Mid-Level Exception (roughly $5.6 million) to add to the group - but that depends on how much the two are demanding.
The Hawks should be considered a threat as a cap space team but if they have a strong playoff run, they may be inclined to keep their roster together.
Detroit Pistons: Watching the Pistons implode recently, it just doesn't seem like there will be tremendous pressure for the team to re-sign either Allen Iverson or Rasheed Wallace.
Waiving the rights of Iverson, Wallace, Walter Herrmann and Will Bynum puts Detroit at just $39.6 million before accounting for their 2009 draft pick.
If they could somehow convince Kwame Brown to opt out of the final year on his deal (good luck), that would open up another $4 million in cap space.
Barring any further moves, the Pistons stand to have $16-$17.7 million to spend in free agency. The odds appear high that Detroit makes cap space a priority.
Rumors have linked the Pistons to Carlos Boozer who can opt out of the final year on his contract ($12.7 million) this summer.
Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies currently have the fifth worst record in the league which puts their 2009 first round pick in the $2-$4.1 million range.
Once they waive Greg Buckner who is only guaranteed $1 million, Memphis could have as much as $20 million under the cap - assuming they waive the rights to restricted free agent Hakim Warrick.
Even if they keep Warrick at his qualifying offer of $3 million, the Grizzlies have a ton of room to work with.
Memphis may be judicious with how they spend their money this summer, but they will be a major player in free agency.
Miami HEAT: It makes no economic sense for Jermaine O'Neal to opt out of his final year at $23 million. While anything is possible, this is as close to "not" as you're going to get.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves technically can get slightly under the cap but since they own three first round picks - and stand to have major cap room in 2010 - it's just not going to happen (barring trades, etc).
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder are tied with the Washington Wizards for the second worst records in the league. That puts their pick in the $2.5-$4.1 million range. Additionally OK City has two late firsts that would add roughly $1.7 million to their cap figure.
Cutting Chucky Atkins reduces his $3.48 million salary to just $760k. Damien Wilkins has an early termination option but he'd struggle to find anyone else in the league to pay him $3.3 million next season.
All told, the Thunder will probably have about $10 million to spend in free agency. They might be able to improve upon that via trade but the same can be said about almost any team.
Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers cap position was hurt by the Memphis Grizzlies when they signed Darius Miles out of retirement. His $9 million figure cuts Portland's projected cap space in half.
Assuming they waive the rights to Channing Frye and keep their late first-round pick, the Blazers could have about $9.1 million to spend.
Both Travis Outlaw ($3.6 million) and Steve Blake ($4.0 million) have non-guaranteed deals that could dramatically open up space for the Blazers. Outlaw and Blake would need to be waived by June 30th otherwise their deals get locked in for the upcoming season.
Teams generally looking to save money to either get away from the luxury tax, open up cap room or just shave payroll will undoubtedly be trying to acquire Outlaw and Blake before the end of June - if only to cut them and reap the savings. Complicating matters is that both have solid on the court value.
As always, it'll be very interesting to see what the Blazers do around draft time and free agency (armed with $9.1-$16.7 million in space).
Sacramento Kings: The Kings were extremely active at the deadline, improving their cap position for the summer.
Mikki More has been cut and will cost $2 million. The retired Shareef Abdur-Rahim's $6.6 million has been taken off the books. Sacramento can easily waive the rights to restricted free agents Ike Diogu, Rashad McCants and Will Solomon.
Drew Gooden will be auditioning for a deal but for cap space, the Kings may waive his bird rights as well.
Also in the mix is what could be the top draft pick considering Sacramento has the worst record in the NBA. Their salary range for the pick is $2.5-$4.1 million. They also get Houston's pick which could be roughly $850k - $1 million.
All told, that leaves roughly $7.2 million of spending power for the Kings. Of course they may wait until 2010 when they could be even further under the cap.
Toronto Raptors: Unless they win the lottery or lose a ton of games, the Raptors will be on hook for about $1.8-$2.1 million with a pick around 8-10.
If they waive the rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Joey Graham - they'd have about $7.8 million in cap space. Is there a single player available at that price who would help the team more than the three they'd be letting go? Probably not.
The Raptors might be better off seeking reasonable deals with their own free agents and shopping with their Mid-Level Exception. Waiting until 2010 to shop may be advantageous but Toronto runs the risk of losing Bosh to free agency.
Utah Jazz: Technically the Jazz can get under the cap but that would take serious defections with Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver all opting out. Korver has not had a great year and would be ill-advised to leave $5.3 million on the table.
It's feasible that Boozer leaves $12.7 million for a long term deal. It's iffy on Okur who is has an early termination option on $9 million.
Adding to the confusion is Paul Millsap who is due a big raise as a restricted free agent, although he has a very light cap figure as a second round pick. He could be inked to a deal after the Jazz made any sort of free agent splash.
If Boozer, Okur and Korver did decide to leave, the Jazz would have roughly $9 million to spend.
Summing It Up
There will be more free agents than there is cap room this summer. Some teams will be reluctant to spend because of the economy or prospects of landing a marquee player in 2010. Once the money is spent, those left out will be dependent on their existing teams for contracts or sign and trade deals. The alternative might be accepting offers at the Mid-Level Exception - even for players used to making eight-figures.
It's always possible teams make trades to open up cap room, so the list won't be complete until the June 30th deadline. At this point it breaks down to the following rough figures:
Memphis Grizzlies - $20 million
Detroit Pistons $16-17.7 million
Atlanta Hawks - $13-14.6
Oklahoma City Thunder - $10 million
Portland Trail Blazers - $9.1-16.7 million - the latter if they cut Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake before the end of June.
Utah Jazz - $9.0 million - if Boozer, Okur and Korver all opt out.
Sacramento Kings - $7.2 million
Toronto Raptors - $7 million
Honorable mention - but unlikely to be under:
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami HEAT
Finally, this is based on a cap projection of $57.3 million. Obviously where it lands determines the final cap figures.