In the discussion of whether to make moves now or only make small short term moves now in order to save and make a free agency run in 2010, I feel the Cavs would have to feel almost totally guaranteed that they can sign a major 2010 FA if they're going to wait and not add any big salary this offseason.
The way I see it is that I think there's a pretty good chance that if LeBron stays, a super star will follow... Now I could be wrong but I think there's something about LeBron that he'll find a sidekick and someone will go wherever he goes (Chris Bosh maybe?)...
I don't feel that Chris Kaman or Tyson Chandler or whoever else is on that tier, is worth risking the possibility of that..
I understand the argument of getting talent now versus getting a potentially much better talent later, but at a greater risk.. I do..
But I see the talent we're talking about and I don't see it as being worth it... I see them as good players that aren't earning their contracts and there are guys like that on the trade market on a yearly basis.. It's not like Kaman or Chandler or anybody else are outperforming their contracts--if that were the case, they wouldn't be on the market..
I think we have the potential to be good, we just need a few changes and I don't think it entails risking 2010 cap space... I think we can win a title and not disrupt that 2010 cap space...
And honestly speaking: if we want to potentially build a dynasty, this may be one of the few opportune ways we can do it... There aren't going to be too many times we'll get a top pick and get a legit player; there won't be too many Pau Gasol trades; and there won't be too many FA classes like this...
Also if they wait until 2010 it needs to be for a player who's 30 or under. It doesn't make a lot of sense to not try to add quality talent now only to then sign a fading player on the wrong side of 30.
Ages at the start of the 2010 season for some 2010 FA's:
Bosh-26
Stoudemire-28
Wade-28
J. Johnson-29
R. Jefferson-30
Yao-30
Redd-31
R. Jefferson-30
Nowitzki-32
Ginobili-33
R. Allen-35
Depends on what type of player we're talking about..
Guys like Redd, Johnson, Allen, Nowitzki, etc., will be good players further into their 30s because they such good shooters and they doesn't really go away with age...
I'd be more worried about guys like Ginobli and Yao because of their injury history..
I'd be indifferent on Jefferson..
Wade, Bosh and Stoudemire don't worry me...
I'd also like to point out some other possible FAs:
Pierce
Chandler
Shaq
Howard (Josh)
McGrady
Camby
Peja
Mike Miller
Aldridge (RFA)
Roy (RFA)
(I don't think Blazers will be able to keep both.. I'd settle for Aldridge if we couldn't get Bosh or Stoudemire)
There's also a lot of good role players too..
Even if we don't get a superstar, there is enough talent to make up for that... I don't think it's superstar or broke with this class.. If you have the cap room and miss a superstar, you'll still be able to get some solid players...