All this talk about Varejao and playoff runs got me thinking about something I saw on Twitter yesterday. Someone I follow was comparing the reg. season and playoff PER's of Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki. He found that, for every year after the 06 postseason, Dirk's playoff PER typically went up from the reg. season, while Wade's tended to dip in the playoffs. Why is this relevant? Well, I remember having a discussion about Varejao's lack of impact in the last two postseasons the Cavs played.
I'm not really a fan of PER. I think it used incorrectly and treated as the be-all, end-all by those in favor of advanced stats. However, there is something to it. And if you look at Andy's PER (as well as other advanced metrics such as TS%, TRB%, WS/48), all his numbers tend to decrease in the postseason. Why is this? You can draw your own conclusions, but I have my own theory (that I can remember being thrown out there two years ago). Andy's biggest attribute is the fact that he never takes a play off. Regular season, postseason, 1st quarter, 4th quarter, he plays every possession like its his last. That's great during the regular season. Most guys don't play every game hard, let alone every possession, and it really helps the team win those close games where the smallest things become an even greater focus.
The problem is that this doesn't happen in the playoffs. When the playoffs arrive, EVERYONE is playing hard. Once everyone is expending the same amount of energy and effort, that's where speed, quickness, athleticism, and skill come into play. Suddenly, Andy's advantage on those more talented than him is gone. As a result, he's less effective.
Now, this has been the case each of the last three postseasons, otherwise known as the prime of Andy's athletic career. He's suffered several injuries since then, and he's gotten older. Best-case scenario, this team is competing in 2-3 years (which, if I'm being honest, I find to be a pipe dream). By that time, Andy is 31/32 and already in 10th or 11th season. That's a lot of miles, and its not even getting into the Olympics this year, so Andy really won't have a summer to rehab any nagging issues. This is already a guy who's seen his effectiveness take a hit when the real season starts, and we're expecting him to play at just as high a level 2-3 years down the line? Sorry, but if you believe that, then you're living in some sort of fantasy world where fatigue and injuries don't exist.
Bottom line: If you have the chance to flip Andy for a top-7 pick in a strong draft, you do it and don't look back. If this really is a possibility (which is another post in itself), then the Cavs MUST take advantage.
(For those that want to compare Andy's reg. season and postseason numbers for themselves, here you go:
Anderson Varejao NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com)