Also locked in: Bold for heavier leans. Wish I locked ina few games earlier, as lines have shifted unfavorably for me. I no longer like Virgina at UCONN because it went from +8 to +4 since Monday. The East Carolina line also shifted from +7 to +3 although I still like ECU to outright win that game. Anyways, my picks below:
Houston (Away) -6 vs Cincy
Risky pick in what looks like will be one of Houston's hardest tests of the year. I haven't seen much of Cincinnati this year, but I do know they decided to start their mobile QB over Gunner Kiel. Houston did a fantastic job against Oklahoma and Cincinnati will present a similar match-up. Greg Ward Jr. was able to take last weekend off and rest which will help him tomorrow night. I think the Cougars continue to be impressive under Tom Herman and win by 2+ scores.
East Carolina (Away) +3 vs South Carolina
I flat out think East Carolina is better than South Carolina so I'm loving the points. Similar to last weekend when East Carolina was getting points from NC State, I don't see much of a difference here. ECU plays the disrespect card in the Carolinas very well and these games are personal to them. Scottie Montgomery (former David Cutcliffe OC at Duke) has shown a hot-hand with a 2 QB system and they've moved the ball well. If South Carolina wins, it's tight. The biggest cause for concern is that the line opened +7 and has already moved to +3. I still like ECU to win, but that's already a massive point spread shift.
Maryland (Away) -9 vs UCF
D.J. Durkin has his boys playing inspired football. They are handling bad teams the way they should. Maryland typically has good athletes but a lack of cohesion on the field. Durkin is a fiery guy and the kids seem to be responding well. I like Maryland to keep rolling.
TCU (Home) -24.5 vs Iowa State
TCU gets back on track against an awful Iowa State team. I think TCU covers close to 24.5 by halftime. Iowa State has no offense and no defense. Matt Campbell has his hands full in Ames....that's an empty cupboard in a difficult location.
Michigan (Home) -20 vs Colorado
Was a heavy lean earlier this week, but have backed off a bit. I still like Michigan to cover but Colorado has played good ball to start the year. When thinking about this game, I just think Michigan proves to be way too physical in the trenches and dominates the run game and play-action that comes off of it. I don't think Colorado keeps it within 20.
Ga Tech (Home) -6.5 vs Vandy
Georgia Tech is (2-0) with a tough win on the road against Boston College and an easy win last weekend against Mercer. Tech will be up for an SEC opponent that hasn't looked great this year in Vandy. Vandy lost at home to a bad South Carolina team and I don't see them staying with a touchdown of the Yellow Jackets. The triple-option is hell to prepare for and I think Paul Johnson handles business here.
Miami (FL) (Away) -3.5 vs App State
Agree with AZ above, and have liked this line since it opened. App State is no pushover and they'll be amped to play, but the talent gap is pretty significant, and I think Mark Richt will get an easier win than the -3.5 that they're laying. Brad Kaaya is a bit overrated IMO, but he's still an NFL QB, with NFL talent around him, and they're aware of App States ability to play.
Pitt +7 vs Okie State
Take away the fact that Okie St was robbed by officials last weekend, the real story to me is that, that game was even close to begin with. Pitt is a solid team that is very well balanced on offense. James Connor is an upper-echelon RB and will continue to show his ability Saturday. Their defense was surprisingly poor against PSU, but their head coach is Pat Narduzzi who should be able to get it cleaned up quick. I'm loving the points on the road.
Georgia -6.5 (Away) vs Mizzou
Georgia is a heavy lean here for me for two reasons. First, they've got a vastly superior roster than Mizzou who is in "rebuilding" mode. Secondly, I think UGA rebounds well after an awful showing last week. I think Nick Chubb gets back on track, Sony Michel should have better legs after his first shoiwng last weekend, and UGA puts Mizzou away early.
Navy -6.5 vs Tulane
Another heavy lean for me. Tulane lost opening weekend to Wake, at home, 7-3. Tulane bounced back pretty well last weekend and put away an inferior non FCS team, but I really like Navy on the road here. Again, triple option teams are really hard to prepare for, and Navy isn't shabby defensively either. I love that Navy also just won a toughly fought game against UCONN on the road last weekend. I think UCONN is better than Tulane for one, but i think Navy has a higher ceiling than how they played last weekend. Navy cleans a few things up and handles business in New Orleans.
Utah -13 (Away) vs San Jose State
Was a heavier lean early this week but still like Utah to cover. Utah just beat their in-state rival last weekend (BYU) and was a bit lackluster in week 1 against Southern Utah, only winning 24-0. I think Utah is vastly superior to San Jose State, who got rocked by Tulsa in week 1 (45-10). I think Utah wins pretty convincingly, but not as confident as previously.
Western KY -17 (Away) vs Miami, OH
Like AZ above, this game has a lot of value to me. Jeff Brohm has really done great things at that school from a development and program perspective. I love Western Kentucky's RB Anthony Wales who is a jack of all trades type, but on the smaller side at 198 lbs. But they do a good job of getting him th eball in space or on the edges where he exploits defenders. Alabama was a toigh draw for them last weekend, but I also think it's why the spread is only at -17. If WKU handles a weaker foe last weekend, this line is probably closer to -24.
Houston (Away) -6 vs Cincy
Risky pick in what looks like will be one of Houston's hardest tests of the year. I haven't seen much of Cincinnati this year, but I do know they decided to start their mobile QB over Gunner Kiel. Houston did a fantastic job against Oklahoma and Cincinnati will present a similar match-up. Greg Ward Jr. was able to take last weekend off and rest which will help him tomorrow night. I think the Cougars continue to be impressive under Tom Herman and win by 2+ scores.
East Carolina (Away) +3 vs South Carolina
I flat out think East Carolina is better than South Carolina so I'm loving the points. Similar to last weekend when East Carolina was getting points from NC State, I don't see much of a difference here. ECU plays the disrespect card in the Carolinas very well and these games are personal to them. Scottie Montgomery (former David Cutcliffe OC at Duke) has shown a hot-hand with a 2 QB system and they've moved the ball well. If South Carolina wins, it's tight. The biggest cause for concern is that the line opened +7 and has already moved to +3. I still like ECU to win, but that's already a massive point spread shift.
Maryland (Away) -9 vs UCF
D.J. Durkin has his boys playing inspired football. They are handling bad teams the way they should. Maryland typically has good athletes but a lack of cohesion on the field. Durkin is a fiery guy and the kids seem to be responding well. I like Maryland to keep rolling.
TCU (Home) -24.5 vs Iowa State
TCU gets back on track against an awful Iowa State team. I think TCU covers close to 24.5 by halftime. Iowa State has no offense and no defense. Matt Campbell has his hands full in Ames....that's an empty cupboard in a difficult location.
Michigan (Home) -20 vs Colorado
Was a heavy lean earlier this week, but have backed off a bit. I still like Michigan to cover but Colorado has played good ball to start the year. When thinking about this game, I just think Michigan proves to be way too physical in the trenches and dominates the run game and play-action that comes off of it. I don't think Colorado keeps it within 20.
Ga Tech (Home) -6.5 vs Vandy
Georgia Tech is (2-0) with a tough win on the road against Boston College and an easy win last weekend against Mercer. Tech will be up for an SEC opponent that hasn't looked great this year in Vandy. Vandy lost at home to a bad South Carolina team and I don't see them staying with a touchdown of the Yellow Jackets. The triple-option is hell to prepare for and I think Paul Johnson handles business here.
Miami (FL) (Away) -3.5 vs App State
Agree with AZ above, and have liked this line since it opened. App State is no pushover and they'll be amped to play, but the talent gap is pretty significant, and I think Mark Richt will get an easier win than the -3.5 that they're laying. Brad Kaaya is a bit overrated IMO, but he's still an NFL QB, with NFL talent around him, and they're aware of App States ability to play.
Pitt +7 vs Okie State
Take away the fact that Okie St was robbed by officials last weekend, the real story to me is that, that game was even close to begin with. Pitt is a solid team that is very well balanced on offense. James Connor is an upper-echelon RB and will continue to show his ability Saturday. Their defense was surprisingly poor against PSU, but their head coach is Pat Narduzzi who should be able to get it cleaned up quick. I'm loving the points on the road.
Georgia -6.5 (Away) vs Mizzou
Georgia is a heavy lean here for me for two reasons. First, they've got a vastly superior roster than Mizzou who is in "rebuilding" mode. Secondly, I think UGA rebounds well after an awful showing last week. I think Nick Chubb gets back on track, Sony Michel should have better legs after his first shoiwng last weekend, and UGA puts Mizzou away early.
Navy -6.5 vs Tulane
Another heavy lean for me. Tulane lost opening weekend to Wake, at home, 7-3. Tulane bounced back pretty well last weekend and put away an inferior non FCS team, but I really like Navy on the road here. Again, triple option teams are really hard to prepare for, and Navy isn't shabby defensively either. I love that Navy also just won a toughly fought game against UCONN on the road last weekend. I think UCONN is better than Tulane for one, but i think Navy has a higher ceiling than how they played last weekend. Navy cleans a few things up and handles business in New Orleans.
Utah -13 (Away) vs San Jose State
Was a heavier lean early this week but still like Utah to cover. Utah just beat their in-state rival last weekend (BYU) and was a bit lackluster in week 1 against Southern Utah, only winning 24-0. I think Utah is vastly superior to San Jose State, who got rocked by Tulsa in week 1 (45-10). I think Utah wins pretty convincingly, but not as confident as previously.
Western KY -17 (Away) vs Miami, OH
Like AZ above, this game has a lot of value to me. Jeff Brohm has really done great things at that school from a development and program perspective. I love Western Kentucky's RB Anthony Wales who is a jack of all trades type, but on the smaller side at 198 lbs. But they do a good job of getting him th eball in space or on the edges where he exploits defenders. Alabama was a toigh draw for them last weekend, but I also think it's why the spread is only at -17. If WKU handles a weaker foe last weekend, this line is probably closer to -24.
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