2016 College Football Lines/Gambling Thread

[TheLand1287]

Wyoming with the epic implosion. They can go eat a bag of dicks.

 

[AZ_]

but wtf do you think of the osu game?

Tulsa covers

 

[SanduskyCav]

Tulsa covers

Wasn't OSU -28 one of your leans? lol

 

[Surge]

I'm in on UCLA to cover 25.5 against UNLV and Tennessee to cover 8.5 against Virginia Tech.

Good luck everyone!

 

[TheLand1287]

My day was looking rough until Georgia Southern, UNC, Iowa, and Tennessee (1H) saved me.

 

[AZ_]

Wyoming +24.5----loss
Youngstown State +24 at WVU----win
Texas -28 vs. UTEP----win
Tennessee -11 vs. VT----win
Oregon -24 vs. Virginia----loss (TD negated by penalty w 40 seconds left)
Florida State -38 vs Charleston Southern----win
Georgia Southern -13 at South Alabama ----win
MTSU +4.5 at Vandy----loss

NFL:
Broncos/Carolina U21 1H----loss
Carolina -3----loss


Leans:

OSU -28 v. Tulsa----win
Purdue +6.5 vs Cincy----loss
USF -13 vs. Northern Ill.----win



Added Indy -3 at home against Detroit.

 

[natedagg]

Adding another technical angle: 76% of the wagers are on the buckeyes to cover (www.vegasinsider.com), yet the line hasn't moved. This suggests that either the smaller wagers (dumb money) are on OSU and/or the house is betting on Tulsa.

If you guys have reasons why you bet what you did, please write it out if you have time. That way we all get better...

I have bets in for Clemson game going over 63 (a capper I follow likes them) on the bounce back from a pretty craptastic showing last week. They also have only 4 starters returning on defense, and 8 on offense, so basically I the idea is that they just laid an egg last week.
Returning starters here: http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2016/FEB16/DBFeb16.html
A cool** different way to look at returning starters: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford
**This had LSU as a dominant force and Tennesee as projected to be awesome too, so obviously a grain of salt.

I took Duke -6.5 against Wake on the theory that Wake sucks and can't score. They won 7-3 last week against Tulane and put up.........................................96 yards. I might have to add to this wager...

Now, here's where I am looking for a debate... Someone talk me out of betting on Tulsa today getting 28.5 points.
-OSU defense returns very few people. Sure the new guys are awesome, but this is a spread offense so it'll be a bit different.
-Tulsa returns many starters and that other website says they should be better this year too FWIW.
-OSU beat a pretty bad BGSU team.
-Tulsa beat a bowl team from a season ago in their opener. And they beat them by more points than anyone else did last year.
-Tulsa was a (bad) bowl team last year, but they did play some big boys (Houston, Okla, Memphis). Their defense sucked last year, but they did win 45-10 in their first game this year.
-OSU in a trap/look ahead situation with Okla on deck. Lots of new players, lots of hype, lots of... mistakes? We'll see, but as a bettor, this is a trap game.
-The ole "thread as proxy" technique: the game thread for the buckeye game has 2 posts as I write this. I have found that, over the years (across all sports), with no data backing this whatsoever, that when the threads are dead, the team can come out flat.
-Joe 6 pack theory: The average college kid about to wager on this game will just look at how OSU crushed last week and slap down the bet, I have to think. Therefor, I should be on the other side of that.

Ok, so somebody talk me off of these points or agree with me. Might see that spread go up too toward game-time.

Fail!

 

[billmac91]

PSU +6 win (kinda back-doored this one and game went completely different than I thought it would....felt it'd be low scoring and close all the way through. Ended up being a shootout with PSU making furious second half comeback)

ECU +5.5 win (ECU plays the disrespect card well in North Carolina and I knew they'd be up to play against NC State. That's a good win for them and I was pretty confident it'd play out this way)

SMU +32 win (Had a feeling it'd be closer than the 32 point line. It ended up being lower scoring than I believed it'd be, but they kept it within 32 so I'll take it)

OSU -29.5 win (placed a last second wager here on a gut feeling after reading about Tulsa's offense week 1. Even though OSU didn't play an A+ game, they imposed themselves physically and just squeezed life out of Tulsa. I'm curious what the line against OU will look like....OU is going to be hungry)

Wyoming +24.5 loss (Wyoming made me want to cry around 2:45 yesterday. Just a complete meltdown when they were in a competitive game. Wyoming even looked like the better team much of that game until completely unraveling. Frustrating as hell to watch)

Syracuse +17.5 loss (damn their defense is terrible. Lamar Jackson is good but not Bo Jackson Tecmo Bowl good...Cuse couldn't tackle him. Probably my worst decision of the weekend. I was giving Dino Babers too much credit. Louisville/FSU next weekend is must watch at noon. Derwin James (FSU best player will be out at least a month it sounds like after injuring knee yesterday)

USC -16.5 win (was nervous making this pick, and didn't see any of game but decided I'd roll with their obvious athletic edge and hope Vegas shorted on the points based on a terrible week 1 performance. It worked out for me)

UNC -8 win (didn't see any of this game either but used same logic as USC win. Illinois is really short on talent and didn't think Lovie himself could make up that disadvantage)

TCU -7.5 loss (Fuck Bert Beilima. Arky is a tough nut but really thought TCU had huge talent advantage and with the home-field thought would get it done. Didn't happen....)

I had a good week (6-3) but I make small wagers so nothing to retire on or anything. The week 3 slate rivals week 1 on paper so keep your calendar open.

 

[billmac91]

I historically don't do great on NFL but I'm laying a few picks down today:

Browns +3.5 (I truly feel this is a 50/50 game so I'll take the points. It's nice line has slid to 3.5 from 3 as well. I could certainly see this game coming down to a kick.)

Oakland +3 (same logic as above although I do believe Oakland has superior talent to NO). I really like Derek Carr and believe Oakland should be able to put a lot of points on board.

Tennessee +3 (I think Titans will surprise some people this year and it starts in week 1. Marriota and their stable of RB's will be tough. I'll take the points at home going against a back-up QB in Stephen Hill)

Tampa +3 (call me crazy but I think Tampa competes with Panthers for NFC South this year. Jameis is that good, like or hate him. I'll take the points and I'm expecting a straight up Tampa win honestly).

There is just so much parity in NFL and it truly is "any given Sunday". That's why I tend to take points and look for games I think should be close. Good luck to all!

 

[Surge]

I historically don't do great on NFL but I'm laying a few picks down today:

Browns +3.5 (I truly feel this is a 50/50 game so I'll take the points. It's nice line has slid to 3.5 from 3 as well. I could certainly see this game coming down to a kick.)

Oakland +3 (same logic as above although I do believe Oakland has superior talent to NO). I really like Derek Carr and believe Oakland should be able to put a lot of points on board.

Tennessee +3 (I think Titans will surprise some people this year and it starts in week 1. Marriota and their stable of RB's will be tough. I'll take the points at home going against a back-up QB in Stephen Hill)

Tampa +3 (call me crazy but I think Tampa competes with Panthers for NFC South this year. Jameis is that good, like or hate him. I'll take the points and I'm expecting a straight up Tampa win honestly).

There is just so much parity in NFL and it truly is "any given Sunday". That's why I tend to take points and look for games I think should be close. Good luck to all!

Love the picks. Can you copy/paste them into te NFL gambling thread in "Around The NFL?"

I would but I'm on my phone.

 

[AZ_]

So many interesting games this week:

Early leans:
FSU -3.5 at Louisville
Syracuse +12.5 vs South Florida
Western Kentucky -15 at Miami (OH)
Oregon +3 at Nebraska
BYU +3.5 vs UCLA
Georgia Southern -24.5 vs UL Monroe
Southern Miss -11 vs Troy
Notre Dame -7.5 vs Michigan St
Ohio State -2.5 at Oklahoma
Georgia -6.5 at Mizzou
Texas -7.5 at Cal


Will post the card after getting into the research early this week.

 

[TheLand1287]

Any of these jumping out at you as good plays?

USC -16.5 vs Utah State
Iowa -15 vs Iowa State
UNC -9.5 at Illinois
Louisville -14.5 at Syracuse

4-0 on my picks above. 5-0 including Washington State -11 over Boise that I mentioned later in the week. Also took the advice of some here and took SMU +34.5, ECU +4, Tennessee -11.

Too bad I had some duds mixed in. Wyoming (assholes shit the bed that 4th quarter), Oregon (should've covered but a phantom holding call brought back a TD in the last minute), Northwestern -6 (1H against Illinois State... didn't think that would be so difficult but apparently Northwestern just blows this year), Duke -5, and then jumped in on Clemson -16 in the 2H which didn't go so well either.

All in all, 8-5 and made some money back from the Panthers/Broncos debacle on Thursday night.

My question is... I made mention in a post on Saturday that I got BC with +1 against UMass for the first half. The line for the game itself was somewhere in the -15 range for BC, so I was happy to see that +1 and jumped on it, and BC covered (although barely). However, I went back to the site and it said the line was deleted because it was incorrect. I know it was pending after the game started, but I didn't see at what point it was deleted off until I went back on the site right before the game went to halftime. Has this happened to anyone else before? I was pretty pissed on Saturday because I don't see how that's my fault the incorrect line is posted. Do I have a legitimate gripe here or no?

 

[billmac91]

My early leans (bold for heavy leans):

Houston -6 vs Cincy
East Carolina +7 vs South Carolina
Maryland -9 vs UCF
Virginia +8 vs UCONN
TCU -22 vs Iowa State
Michigan -20 vs Colorado
Ga Tech -6.5 vs Vandy
Miami (FL) -3.5 vs App State
Pitt +7 vs Okie State
Georgia -6.5 vs Mizzou
Navy -6.5 vs Tulane
Utah -12.5 vs San Jose State

I'm sure I will some cash on tOSU/Oklahoma and FSU/Louisville closer to game time but don't have a strong feeling either way yet. FSU is going to be without their best defensive player in Derwin James, who would've been a pretty good neutralizer on Lamar Jackson. That is a huge loss for FSU, so it gives me some pause. If James were healthy I'd be all over -2.5/-3.0 vs the Cards.

On a neutral field I'd be all over the Buckeyes too, but that's a tough test this early in the season with such a young group of players. And tOSU's offense was so disappointing against Tulsa. I was very surprised at the difficulty the Bucks had in the first half moving the ball. Baker Mayfield also concerns me in that he had a huge letdown against Houston, and now their backs are against the wall. They need this game.

Will post some write-ups later this week as well.

 

[AZ_]

Ohio State is 16-3 against the spread against Top 25 teams on the road.

16-3...

 

[AZ_]

So many interesting games this week:

Early leans:
FSU -3.5 at Louisville
Syracuse +12.5 vs South Florida
Western Kentucky -15 at Miami (OH)
Oregon +3 at Nebraska
BYU +3.5 vs UCLA
Georgia Southern -24.5 vs UL Monroe
Southern Miss -11 vs Troy
Notre Dame -7.5 vs Michigan St
Ohio State -2.5 at Oklahoma
Georgia -6.5 at Mizzou
Texas -7.5 at Cal


Will post the card after getting into the research early this week.

Locked in:

WKU -17 vs Miami (OH)

Western Kentucky has replaced their QB with a transfer who has performed pretty adequately thus far. Miami just isn't very good, and despite being on the road I believe WKUs offense will be so tough to stop.


Georgia Southern -24 vs UL Monroe

GSU has been one of the best collegiate teams against the spread, and their rushing attack is not a great matchup for the ULM defense.

Oregon +3 vs Nebraska

Dakota Prukop has flashed elite efficiency running that Oregon offense. There is no question Oregon is going to score some points in this one, but they allowed 26 points to a pretty awful Virginia team. If they can contain Armstrong offensively, I like them to win outright.


Southern Miss -10 vs Troy

Troy gets a bit overrated here after playing Clemson close. This is the game I've gone hardest on, Southern Miss is a hell of a football team and very balanced.


Miami Fl -3.5 at Appy State

Miami's defense is allowing a best in the nation 2.7 yards per play through their first two games, and Appy State has struggled some offensively. Appy's defense has some legit players, but I think Miami gets it done by 10+

BGSU +6.5 vs MTSU

Stockstill and the MTSU offense are going to put up some points, but BG can still score with anyone left on their schedule and is playing at home coming off a bit of a letdown game against an FCS school.