The Wizard of Moz
Punishing This Air
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Look I'm not going to pretend I've gone through all the draft picks and crunched numbers and have a solid answer because I haven't, but this isn't just a case of Tom BradyIt's playing the odds.
We're much, much more likely to hit on a "Franchise" guy ala Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger or whatever within the top 10/top 5/number 1 overall.
Guys like Tom Brady exist, yes. But the odds of hitting on them are not as great.
The following ACTIVE qbs weren't taken in the top 20 picks in the draft. In other words you could've made the playoffs and still drafted these guys:
Drew Brees
Kirk Cousins
Tom Brady
Russell Wilson
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Tyrod Taylor
Andy Dalton
Tony Romo
Teddy Bridgewater
That's a pretty good list. It's littered with pro bowlers.
And let's not act like there isn't a laundry list of QBs taken in the top 20 who have been pathetic in the NFL. There have been. The onous is on you to present actual odds if you want to make that argument but without hard evidence I'm not buying it's that much more likely considering the huge volume of QBs drafted in the top 20
Overdrafting a QB doesn't make that QB any more likely to succeed.