shoes22
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Sorry I was so late in posting this guys, real life got in the way. I have tweaked my formula a little bit since last postseason to calculate these odds, emphasizing raw player efficiency and likely "playoff lineups" over regular season performance. This is what I got:
In the East...
Boston Celtics (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
Celtics in 4: 3.7%
Celtics in 5: 10.91%
Celtics in 6: 10.4%
Celtics in 7: 17.08%
Bulls in 7: 13.98%
Bulls in 6: 21.82%
Bulls in 5: 13.56%
Bulls in 4: 8.55%
Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 55%/Bulls Win 45%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.75%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.06%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82
Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 42.09% likely
Bulls win series: 57.91% likely
Let's get this out of the way first. Yes, my model thinks that the Bulls will upset the Celtics in the first round. I knew this series would project to be close, but the fact that it's this lopsided surprised me as much as anyone. Whether it will actually play out anywhere like this, we'll see.
Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 19.85%
Cavs in 5: 33.85%
Cavs in 6: 17.56%
Cavs in 7: 17.04%
Pacers in 7: 4.00%
Pacers in 6: 5.45%
Pacers in 5: 1.52%
Pacers in 4: 0.73%
Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 81%/Pacers Win 19%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 79.42%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 44.05%
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.04%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.44
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 88.3% likely
Pacers win series: 11.7% likely
Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 7.29%
Raptors in 5: 16.52%
Raptors in 6: 15.19%
Raptors in 7: 18.86%
Bucks in 7: 12.58%
Bucks in 6: 15.74%
Bucks in 5: 8.98%
Bucks in 4: 4.84%
Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 60%/Bucks Win 40%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.87%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.2%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.44%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82
Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 57.86% likely
Bucks win series: 42.14% likely
Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 15.62%
Wizards in 5: 29.41%
Wizards in 6: 17.9%
Wizards in 7: 19.08%
Hawks in 7: 6.02%
Hawks in 6: 7.93%
Hawks in 5: 2.71%
Hawks in 4: 1.33%
Game 1 Odds:
Wizards win 76%/Hawks Win 24%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 83.05%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 50.93%
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.1%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59
Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 82.01% likely
Hawks win series: 17.99% likely
And in the West...
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 35.0%
Warriors in 5: 37.76%
Warriors in 6: 14.71%
Warriors in 7: 9.0%
Trailblazers in 7: 1.35%
Trailblazers in 6: 1.61%
Trailblazers in 5: 0.4%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.17%
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 87%/Trailblazers Win 13%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 64.83%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 26.67%
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.35%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.02
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.47% likely
Trailblazers win series: 3.53% likely
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 26.48%
Spurs in 5: 35.95%
Spurs in 6: 17.1%
Spurs in 7: 13.15%
Grizzlies in 7: 2.69%
Grizzlies in 6: 3.28%
Grizzlies in 5: 0.93%
Grizzlies in 4: 0.42%
Game 1 Odds:
Spurs win 83%/Grizzlies Win 17%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 73.1%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 36.22%
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.84%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.25
Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 92.68% likely
Grizzlies win series: 7.32% likely
Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 10.5%
Rockets in 5: 24.35%
Rockets in 6: 16.32%
Rockets in 7: 21.49%
Thunder in 7: 8.36%
Thunder in 6: 12.1%
Thunder in 5: 4.51%
Thunder in 4: 2.37%
Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 72%/Thunder Win 28%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.13%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.27%
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.85%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.75
Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 72.66% likely
Thunder win series: 27.34% likely
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Clippers in 4: 5.99%
Clippers in 5: 18.32%
Clippers in 6: 12.97%
Clippers in 7: 22.6%
Jazz in 7: 10.63%
Jazz in 6: 18.08%
Jazz in 5: 7.21%
Jazz in 4: 4.2%
Game 1 Odds:
Clippers win 68%/Jazz Win 32%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 64.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.23%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.87
Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 59.88% likely
Jazz win series: 40.12% likely
Hopefully this playoffs is more fun than the regular season was, and let's go Cavs!!
In the East...
Boston Celtics (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
Celtics in 4: 3.7%
Celtics in 5: 10.91%
Celtics in 6: 10.4%
Celtics in 7: 17.08%
Bulls in 7: 13.98%
Bulls in 6: 21.82%
Bulls in 5: 13.56%
Bulls in 4: 8.55%
Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 55%/Bulls Win 45%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.75%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.06%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82
Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 42.09% likely
Bulls win series: 57.91% likely
Let's get this out of the way first. Yes, my model thinks that the Bulls will upset the Celtics in the first round. I knew this series would project to be close, but the fact that it's this lopsided surprised me as much as anyone. Whether it will actually play out anywhere like this, we'll see.
Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 19.85%
Cavs in 5: 33.85%
Cavs in 6: 17.56%
Cavs in 7: 17.04%
Pacers in 7: 4.00%
Pacers in 6: 5.45%
Pacers in 5: 1.52%
Pacers in 4: 0.73%
Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 81%/Pacers Win 19%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 79.42%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 44.05%
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.04%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.44
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 88.3% likely
Pacers win series: 11.7% likely
Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 7.29%
Raptors in 5: 16.52%
Raptors in 6: 15.19%
Raptors in 7: 18.86%
Bucks in 7: 12.58%
Bucks in 6: 15.74%
Bucks in 5: 8.98%
Bucks in 4: 4.84%
Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 60%/Bucks Win 40%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.87%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.2%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.44%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82
Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 57.86% likely
Bucks win series: 42.14% likely
Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 15.62%
Wizards in 5: 29.41%
Wizards in 6: 17.9%
Wizards in 7: 19.08%
Hawks in 7: 6.02%
Hawks in 6: 7.93%
Hawks in 5: 2.71%
Hawks in 4: 1.33%
Game 1 Odds:
Wizards win 76%/Hawks Win 24%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 83.05%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 50.93%
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.1%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59
Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 82.01% likely
Hawks win series: 17.99% likely
And in the West...
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 35.0%
Warriors in 5: 37.76%
Warriors in 6: 14.71%
Warriors in 7: 9.0%
Trailblazers in 7: 1.35%
Trailblazers in 6: 1.61%
Trailblazers in 5: 0.4%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.17%
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 87%/Trailblazers Win 13%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 64.83%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 26.67%
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.35%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.02
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.47% likely
Trailblazers win series: 3.53% likely
San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 26.48%
Spurs in 5: 35.95%
Spurs in 6: 17.1%
Spurs in 7: 13.15%
Grizzlies in 7: 2.69%
Grizzlies in 6: 3.28%
Grizzlies in 5: 0.93%
Grizzlies in 4: 0.42%
Game 1 Odds:
Spurs win 83%/Grizzlies Win 17%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 73.1%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 36.22%
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.84%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.25
Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 92.68% likely
Grizzlies win series: 7.32% likely
Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 10.5%
Rockets in 5: 24.35%
Rockets in 6: 16.32%
Rockets in 7: 21.49%
Thunder in 7: 8.36%
Thunder in 6: 12.1%
Thunder in 5: 4.51%
Thunder in 4: 2.37%
Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 72%/Thunder Win 28%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.13%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.27%
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.85%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.75
Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 72.66% likely
Thunder win series: 27.34% likely
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Clippers in 4: 5.99%
Clippers in 5: 18.32%
Clippers in 6: 12.97%
Clippers in 7: 22.6%
Jazz in 7: 10.63%
Jazz in 6: 18.08%
Jazz in 5: 7.21%
Jazz in 4: 4.2%
Game 1 Odds:
Clippers win 68%/Jazz Win 32%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 64.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.23%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.87
Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 59.88% likely
Jazz win series: 40.12% likely
Hopefully this playoffs is more fun than the regular season was, and let's go Cavs!!