Alright let's roll! The delay was because I upgraded my algorithm a little bit. I fine tuned it so it's a little more aggressive in decision making from the outset of a series, and it should be a little less predictable in its projections now. I like when it surprises me, and this series is no exception because in my model the Warriors are actually favored to win more games, and have the highest individual game probability to win (Game 2 at 68%), and yet my model is still picking the Cavs...albeit ever so slightly. Here's the breakdown:
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 4.41%
Warriors in 5: 14.97%
Warriors in 6: 12.19%
Warriors in 7: 17.8%
Cavs in 7: 15.16%
Cavs in 6: 20.06%
Cavs in 5: 9.20%
Cavs in 4: 6.21%
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 58%/Cavs Win 42%
Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.38%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 65.21%
Odds series goes 7 games: 32.96%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.88
Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 49.37% likely
Cavs win series: 50.63% likely